亚洲男人的天堂2018av,欧美草比,久久久久久免费视频精选,国色天香在线看免费,久久久久亚洲av成人片仓井空

We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of two independent processes: one spanned by a finite basis of inducing points and the other capturing the remaining variation. We show that this formulation recovers existing approximations and at the same time allows to obtain tighter lower bounds on the marginal likelihood and new stochastic variational inference algorithms. We demonstrate the efficiency of these algorithms in several Gaussian process models ranging from standard regression to multi-class classification using (deep) convolutional Gaussian processes and report state-of-the-art results on CIFAR-10 among purely GP-based models.

We consider generic optimal Bayesian inference, namely, models of signal reconstruction where the posterior distribution and all hyperparameters are known. Under a standard assumption on the concentration of the free energy, we show how replica symmetry in the strong sense of concentration of all multioverlaps can be established as a consequence of the Franz-de Sanctis identities; the identities themselves in the current setting are obtained via a novel perturbation coming from exponentially distributed "side-observations" of the signal. Concentration of multioverlaps means that asymptotically the posterior distribution has a particularly simple structure encoded by a random probability measure (or, in the case of binary signal, a non-random probability measure). We believe that such strong control of the model should be key in the study of inference problems with underlying sparse graphical structure (error correcting codes, block models, etc) and, in particular, in the rigorous derivation of replica symmetric formulas for the free energy and mutual information in this context.

Bootstrap inference is a powerful tool for obtaining robust inference for quantiles and difference-in-quantiles estimators. The computationally intensive nature of bootstrap inference has made it infeasible in large-scale experiments. In this paper, the theoretical properties of the Poisson bootstrap algorithm and quantile estimators are used to derive alternative resampling-free algorithms for Poisson bootstrap inference that reduce the the computational complexity substantially without additional assumptions. The results unlock bootstrap inference for almost arbitrarily large samples. At Spotify, we can now easily calculate bootstrap confidence intervals for quantiles and difference-in-quantiles in A/B tests with hundreds of millions of observations.

We already have a subset sum problem which is a prototype of $NP$- complete problem in computer science. We give here a conjecture that a choice function could also give rise to an $NP$- complete problem. For this purpose we apply modular representation theory to computer science.

This paper studies the problem of statistical inference for genetic relatedness between binary traits based on individual-level genome-wide association data. Specifically, under the high-dimensional logistic regression model, we define parameters characterizing the cross-trait genetic correlation, the genetic covariance and the trait-specific genetic variance. A novel weighted debiasing method is developed for the logistic Lasso estimator and computationally efficient debiased estimators are proposed. The rates of convergence for these estimators are studied and their asymptotic normality is established under mild conditions. Moreover, we construct confidence intervals and statistical tests for these parameters, and provide theoretical justifications for the methods, including the coverage probability and expected length of the confidence intervals, as well as the size and power of the proposed tests. Numerical studies are conducted under both model generated data and simulated genetic data to show the superiority of the proposed methods and their applicability to the analysis of real genetic data. Finally, by analyzing a real data set on autoimmune diseases, we demonstrate the ability to obtain novel insights about the shared genetic architecture between ten pediatric autoimmune diseases.

Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference have been widely used in practice with superior performance. Yet, few studies regarding the fundamental understanding of their performances are available. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian bandit algorithm, which we call Generalized Bayesian Upper Confidence Bound (GBUCB), for bandit problems in the presence of approximate inference. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that in Bernoulli multi-armed bandit, GBUCB can achieve $O(\sqrt{T}(\log T)^c)$ frequentist regret if the inference error measured by symmetrized Kullback-Leibler divergence is controllable. This analysis relies on a novel sensitivity analysis for quantile shifts with respect to inference errors. To our best knowledge, our work provides the first theoretical regret bound that is better than $o(T)$ in the setting of approximate inference. Our experimental evaluations on multiple approximate inference settings corroborate our theory, showing that our GBUCB is consistently superior to BUCB and Thompson sampling.

Estimation of link travel time correlation of a bus route is essential to many bus operation applications, such as timetable scheduling, travel time forecasting and transit service assessment/improvement. Most previous studies rely on either independent assumptions or simplified local spatial correlation structures. In the real world, however, link travel time on a bus route could exhibit complex correlation structures, such as long-range correlations, negative correlations, and time-varying correlations. Therefore, before introducing strong assumptions, it is essential to empirically quantify and examine the correlation structure of link travel time from real-world bus operation data. To this end, this paper develops a Bayesian Gaussian model to estimate the link travel time correlation matrix of a bus route using smart-card-like data. Our method overcomes the small-sample-size problem in correlation matrix estimation by borrowing/integrating those incomplete observations (i.e., with missing/ragged values and overlapped link segments) from other bus routes. Next, we propose an efficient Gibbs sampling framework to marginalize over the missing and ragged values and obtain the posterior distribution of the correlation matrix. Three numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate model performance. We first conduct a synthetic experiment and our results show that the proposed method produces an accurate estimation for travel time correlations with credible intervals. Next, we perform experiments on a real-world bus route with smart card data; our results show that both local and long-range correlations exist on this bus route. Finally, we demonstrate an application of using the estimated covariance matrix to make probabilistic forecasting of link and trip travel time.

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are emerging as a powerful class of generative models, as they not only allow for efficient sampling, but also deliver, by construction, density estimation. They are of great potential usage in High Energy Physics (HEP), where complex high dimensional data and probability distributions are everyday's meal. However, in order to fully leverage the potential of NFs it is crucial to explore their robustness as data dimensionality increases. Thus, in this contribution, we discuss the performances of some of the most popular types of NFs on the market, on some toy data sets with increasing number of dimensions.

Dyadic data is often encountered when quantities of interest are associated with the edges of a network. As such it plays an important role in statistics, econometrics and many other data science disciplines. We consider the problem of uniformly estimating a dyadic Lebesgue density function, focusing on nonparametric kernel-based estimators taking the form of dyadic empirical processes. Our main contributions include the minimax-optimal uniform convergence rate of the dyadic kernel density estimator, along with strong approximation results for the associated standardized and Studentized $t$-processes. A consistent variance estimator enables the construction of valid and feasible uniform confidence bands for the unknown density function. A crucial feature of dyadic distributions is that they may be "degenerate" at certain points in the support of the data, a property making our analysis somewhat delicate. Nonetheless our methods for uniform inference remain robust to the potential presence of such points. For implementation purposes, we discuss procedures based on positive semi-definite covariance estimators, mean squared error optimal bandwidth selectors and robust bias-correction techniques. We illustrate the empirical finite-sample performance of our methods both in simulations and with real-world data. Our technical results concerning strong approximations and maximal inequalities are of potential independent interest.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space, such as the simplex, the time-discretisation error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that while current SGMCMC methods for the simplex perform well in certain cases, they struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. However, most popular large-scale applications of Bayesian inference on simplex spaces, such as network or topic models, are sparse. We argue that this poor performance is due to the biases of SGMCMC caused by the discretization error. To get around this, we propose the stochastic CIR process, which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the stochastic CIR process are asymptotically unbiased. Use of the stochastic CIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.