We consider generic optimal Bayesian inference, namely, models of signal reconstruction where the posterior distribution and all hyperparameters are known. Under a standard assumption on the concentration of the free energy, we show how replica symmetry in the strong sense of concentration of all multioverlaps can be established as a consequence of the Franz-de Sanctis identities; the identities themselves in the current setting are obtained via a novel perturbation coming from exponentially distributed "side-observations" of the signal. Concentration of multioverlaps means that asymptotically the posterior distribution has a particularly simple structure encoded by a random probability measure (or, in the case of binary signal, a non-random probability measure). We believe that such strong control of the model should be key in the study of inference problems with underlying sparse graphical structure (error correcting codes, block models, etc) and, in particular, in the rigorous derivation of replica symmetric formulas for the free energy and mutual information in this context.
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Mixed-dimensional elliptic equations exhibiting a hierarchical structure are commonly used to model problems with high aspect ratio inclusions, such as flow in fractured porous media. We derive general abstract estimates based on the theory of functional a posteriori error estimates, for which guaranteed upper bounds for the primal and dual variables and two-sided bounds for the primal-dual pair are obtained. We improve on the abstract results obtained with the functional approach by proposing four different ways of estimating the residual errors based on the extent the approximate solution has conservation properties, i.e.: (1) no conservation, (2) subdomain conservation, (3) grid-level conservation, and (4) exact conservation. This treatment results in sharper and fully computable estimates when mass is conserved either at the grid level or exactly, with a comparable structure to those obtained from grid-based a posteriori techniques. We demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our theoretical results through numerical experiments using four different discretization methods for synthetic problems and applications based on benchmarks of flow in fractured porous media.
We investigate the feature compression of high-dimensional ridge regression using the optimal subsampling technique. Specifically, based on the basic framework of random sampling algorithm on feature for ridge regression and the A-optimal design criterion, we first obtain a set of optimal subsampling probabilities. Considering that the obtained probabilities are uneconomical, we then propose the nearly optimal ones. With these probabilities, a two step iterative algorithm is established which has lower computational cost and higher accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis and numerical experiments to support the proposed methods. Numerical results demonstrate the decent performance of our methods.
Many existing algorithms for streaming geometric data analysis have been plagued by exponential dependencies in the space complexity, which are undesirable for processing high-dimensional data sets. In particular, once $d\geq\log n$, there are no known non-trivial streaming algorithms for problems such as maintaining convex hulls and L\"owner-John ellipsoids of $n$ points, despite a long line of work in streaming computational geometry since [AHV04]. We simultaneously improve these results to $\mathrm{poly}(d,\log n)$ bits of space by trading off with a $\mathrm{poly}(d,\log n)$ factor distortion. We achieve these results in a unified manner, by designing the first streaming algorithm for maintaining a coreset for $\ell_\infty$ subspace embeddings with $\mathrm{poly}(d,\log n)$ space and $\mathrm{poly}(d,\log n)$ distortion. Our algorithm also gives similar guarantees in the \emph{online coreset} model. Along the way, we sharpen results for online numerical linear algebra by replacing a log condition number dependence with a $\log n$ dependence, answering a question of [BDM+20]. Our techniques provide a novel connection between leverage scores, a fundamental object in numerical linear algebra, and computational geometry. For $\ell_p$ subspace embeddings, we give nearly optimal trade-offs between space and distortion for one-pass streaming algorithms. For instance, we give a deterministic coreset using $O(d^2\log n)$ space and $O((d\log n)^{1/2-1/p})$ distortion for $p>2$, whereas previous deterministic algorithms incurred a $\mathrm{poly}(n)$ factor in the space or the distortion [CDW18]. Our techniques have implications in the offline setting, where we give optimal trade-offs between the space complexity and distortion of subspace sketch data structures. To do this, we give an elementary proof of a "change of density" theorem of [LT80] and make it algorithmic.
Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.
In this work, we focus on the high-dimensional trace regression model with a low-rank coefficient matrix. We establish a nearly optimal in-sample prediction risk bound for the rank-constrained least-squares estimator under no assumptions on the design matrix. Lying at the heart of the proof is a covering number bound for the family of projection operators corresponding to the subspaces spanned by the design. By leveraging this complexity result, we perform a power analysis for a permutation test on the existence of a low-rank signal under the high-dimensional trace regression model. We show that the permutation test based on the rank-constrained least-squares estimator achieves non-trivial power with no assumptions on the minimum (restricted) eigenvalue of the covariance matrix of the design. Finally, we use alternating minimization to approximately solve the rank-constrained least-squares problem to evaluate its empirical in-sample prediction risk and power of the resulting permutation test in our numerical study.
Randomized Maximum Likelihood (RML) is an approximate posterior sampling methodology, widely used in Bayesian inverse problems with complex forward models, particularly in petroleum engineering applications. The procedure involves solving a multi-objective optimization problem, which can be challenging in high-dimensions and when there are constraints on computational costs. We propose a new methodology for tackling the RML optimization problem based on the high-dimensional Bayesian optimization literature. By sharing data between the different objective functions, we are able to implement RML at a greatly reduced computational cost. We demonstrate the benefits of our methodology in comparison with the solutions obtained by alternative optimization methods on a variety of synthetic and real-world problems, including medical and fluid dynamics applications. Furthermore, we show that the samples produced by our method cover well the high-posterior density regions in all of the experiments.
Let $X^{(n)}$ be an observation sampled from a distribution $P_{\theta}^{(n)}$ with an unknown parameter $\theta,$ $\theta$ being a vector in a Banach space $E$ (most often, a high-dimensional space of dimension $d$). We study the problem of estimation of $f(\theta)$ for a functional $f:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ of some smoothness $s>0$ based on an observation $X^{(n)}\sim P_{\theta}^{(n)}.$ Assuming that there exists an estimator $\hat \theta_n=\hat \theta_n(X^{(n)})$ of parameter $\theta$ such that $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta)$ is sufficiently close in distribution to a mean zero Gaussian random vector in $E,$ we construct a functional $g:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ such that $g(\hat \theta_n)$ is an asymptotically normal estimator of $f(\theta)$ with $\sqrt{n}$ rate provided that $s>\frac{1}{1-\alpha}$ and $d\leq n^{\alpha}$ for some $\alpha\in (0,1).$ We also derive general upper bounds on Orlicz norm error rates for estimator $g(\hat \theta)$ depending on smoothness $s,$ dimension $d,$ sample size $n$ and the accuracy of normal approximation of $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta).$ In particular, this approach yields asymptotically efficient estimators in some high-dimensional exponential models.
We introduce a novel methodology for particle filtering in dynamical systems where the evolution of the signal of interest is described by a SDE and observations are collected instantaneously at prescribed time instants. The new approach includes the discretisation of the SDE and the design of efficient particle filters for the resulting discrete-time state-space model. The discretisation scheme converges with weak order 1 and it is devised to create a sequential dependence structure along the coordinates of the discrete-time state vector. We introduce a class of space-sequential particle filters that exploits this structure to improve performance when the system dimension is large. This is numerically illustrated by a set of computer simulations for a stochastic Lorenz 96 system with additive noise. The new space-sequential particle filters attain approximately constant estimation errors as the dimension of the Lorenz 96 system is increased, with a computational cost that increases polynomially, rather than exponentially, with the system dimension. Besides the new numerical scheme and particle filters, we provide in this paper a general framework for discrete-time filtering in continuous-time dynamical systems described by a SDE and instantaneous observations. Provided that the SDE is discretised using a weakly-convergent scheme, we prove that the marginal posterior laws of the resulting discrete-time state-space model converge to the posterior marginal posterior laws of the original continuous-time state-space model under a suitably defined metric. This result is general and not restricted to the numerical scheme or particle filters specifically studied in this manuscript.
Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal likelihood (model evidence), which is computationally challenging, prohibiting its use in many high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. With Bayesian imaging applications in mind, in this work we present the proximal nested sampling methodology to objectively compare alternative Bayesian imaging models for applications that use images to inform decisions under uncertainty. The methodology is based on nested sampling, a Monte Carlo approach specialised for model comparison, and exploits proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to scale efficiently to large problems and to tackle models that are log-concave and not necessarily smooth (e.g., involving l_1 or total-variation priors). The proposed approach can be applied computationally to problems of dimension O(10^6) and beyond, making it suitable for high-dimensional inverse imaging problems. It is validated on large Gaussian models, for which the likelihood is available analytically, and subsequently illustrated on a range of imaging problems where it is used to analyse different choices of dictionary and measurement model.
We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting directions. Then we give a new information-theoretic proof of a finite version of de Finetti's classical representation theorem for finite-valued random variables. We derive an upper bound on the relative entropy between the distribution of the first $k$ in a sequence of $n$ exchangeable random variables, and an appropriate mixture over product distributions. The mixing measure is characterised as the law of the empirical measure of the original sequence, and de Finetti's result is recovered as a corollary. The proof is nicely motivated by the Gibbs conditioning principle in connection with statistical mechanics, and it follows along an appealing sequence of steps. The technical estimates required for these steps are obtained via the use of a collection of combinatorial tools known within information theory as `the method of types.'
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