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The analysis of animal movement has gained attention recently. New continuous-time models and statistical methods have been developed to estimate some sets related to their movements, such as the home-range and the core-area among others, when the information of the trajectory is provided by a GPS. Because data transfer costs and GPS battery life are practical constraints in ecological studies, the experimental designer must make critical sampling decisions in order to maximize information. To capture fine-scale motion, long-term behavior must be sacrificed, and vice versa. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the on--off sampling scheme, where the GPS is alternately on and off. This scheme is already used in practice but with insufficient statistical theoretical support. We prove the consistency of home-range estimators with an underlying reflected diffusion model under this sampling method (in terms of the Hausdorff distance). The same rate of convergence is achieved as in the case where the GPS is always on for the whole experiment. This is illustrated by a simulation study and real data. We also provide estimators of the stationary distribution, its level sets (which give estimators of the core area), and the drift function.

We consider the case of performing Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic compartment models, using incomplete time course data consisting of incidence counts that are either the number of new infections or removals in time intervals of fixed length. We eschew the most natural Markov jump process representation for reasons of computational efficiency, and focus on a stochastic differential equation representation. This is further approximated to give a tractable Gaussian process, that is, the linear noise approximation (LNA). Unless the observation model linking the LNA to data is both linear and Gaussian, the observed data likelihood remains intractable. It is in this setting that we consider two approaches for marginalising over the latent process: a correlated pseudo-marginal method and analytic marginalisation via a Gaussian approximation of the observation model. We compare and contrast these approaches using synthetic data before applying the best performing method to real data consisting of removal incidence of oak processionary moth nests in Richmond Park, London. Our approach further allows comparison between various competing compartment models.

Cough is a primary symptom of most respiratory diseases, and changes in cough characteristics provide valuable information for diagnosing respiratory diseases. The characterization of cough sounds still lacks concrete evidence, which makes it difficult to accurately distinguish between different types of coughs and other sounds. The objective of this research work is to characterize cough sounds with voiced content and cough sounds without voiced content. Further, the cough sound characteristics are compared with the characteristics of speech. The proposed method to achieve this goal utilized spectral roll-off, spectral entropy, spectral flatness, spectral flux, zero crossing rate, spectral centroid, and spectral bandwidth attributes which describe the cough sounds related to the respiratory system, glottal information, and voice model. These attributes are then subjected to statistical analysis using the measures of minimum, maximum, mean, median, and standard deviation. The experimental results show that the mean and frequency distribution of spectral roll-off, spectral centroid, and spectral bandwidth are found to be higher for cough sounds than for speech signals. Spectral flatness levels in cough sounds will rise to 0.22, whereas spectral flux varies between 0.3 and 0.6. The Zero Crossing Rate (ZCR) of most frames of cough sounds is between 0.05 and 0.4. These attributes contribute significant information while characterizing cough sounds.

A population-averaged additive subdistribution hazards model is proposed to assess the marginal effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence function and to analyze correlated failure time data subject to competing risks. This approach extends the population-averaged additive hazards model by accommodating potentially dependent censoring due to competing events other than the event of interest. Assuming an independent working correlation structure, an estimating equations approach is outlined to estimate the regression coefficients and a new sandwich variance estimator is proposed. The proposed sandwich variance estimator accounts for both the correlations between failure times and between the censoring times, and is robust to misspecification of the unknown dependency structure within each cluster. We further develop goodness-of-fit tests to assess the adequacy of the additive structure of the subdistribution hazards for the overall model and each covariate. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed methods in finite samples. We illustrate our methods using data from the STrategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop confidence in Elders (STRIDE) trial.

There is a great opportunity to use high-quality patient journals and health registers to develop machine learning-based Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS). To implement a CDSS tool in a clinical workflow, there is a need to integrate, validate and test this tool on the Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems used to store and manage patient data. However, it is often not possible to get the necessary access to an EHR system due to legal compliance. We propose an architecture for generating and using synthetic EHR data for CDSS tool development. The architecture is implemented in a system called SyntHIR. The SyntHIR system uses the Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standards for data interoperability, the Gretel framework for generating synthetic data, the Microsoft Azure FHIR server as the FHIR-based EHR system and SMART on FHIR framework for tool transportability. We demonstrate the usefulness of SyntHIR by developing a machine learning-based CDSS tool using data from the Norwegian Patient Register (NPR) and Norwegian Patient Prescriptions (NorPD). We demonstrate the development of the tool on the SyntHIR system and then lift it to the Open DIPS environment. In conclusion, SyntHIR provides a generic architecture for CDSS tool development using synthetic FHIR data and a testing environment before implementing it in a clinical setting. However, there is scope for improvement in terms of the quality of the synthetic data generated. The code is open source and available at //github.com/potter-coder89/SyntHIR.git.

How can citizens moderate hate, toxicity, and extremism in online discourse? We analyze a large corpus of more than 130,000 discussions on German Twitter over the turbulent four years marked by the migrant crisis and political upheavals. With the help of human annotators, language models and machine learning classifiers, we identify different dimensions of discourse. We use a matching approach and longitudinal statistical analyses to discern the effectiveness of different counter speech strategies on the micro-level (individual tweet pairs), meso-level (discussion trees) and macro-level (days) of discourse. We find that expressing simple opinions, not necessarily supported by facts, but also without insults, relates to the least hate, toxicity, and extremity of speech and speakers in subsequent discussions. Sarcasm also helps in achieving those outcomes, in particular in the presence of organized extreme groups on the meso-level. Constructive comments such as providing facts or exposing contradictions can backfire and attract more extremity. Mentioning either outgroups or ingroups is typically related to a deterioration of discourse. A pronounced emotional tone, either negative such as anger or fear, or positive such as enthusiasm and pride, also leads to worse outcomes. Going beyond one-shot analyses on smaller samples of discourse, our findings have implications for the successful management of online commons through collective civic moderation.

We study the numerical solution of a Cahn-Hilliard/Allen-Cahn system with strong coupling through state and gradient dependent non-diagonal mobility matrices. A fully discrete approximation scheme in space and time is proposed which preserves the underlying gradient flow structure and leads to dissipation of the free-energy on the discrete level. Existence and uniqueness of the discrete solution is established and relative energy estimates are used to prove optimal convergence rates in space and time under minimal smoothness assumptions. Numerical tests are presented for illustration of the theoretical results and to demonstrate the viability of the proposed methods.

The development of technologies for causal inference with the privacy preservation of distributed data has attracted considerable attention in recent years. To address this issue, we propose a data collaboration quasi-experiment (DC-QE) that enables causal inference from distributed data with privacy preservation. In our method, first, local parties construct dimensionality-reduced intermediate representations from the private data. Second, they share intermediate representations, instead of private data for privacy preservation. Third, propensity scores were estimated from the shared intermediate representations. Finally, the treatment effects were estimated from propensity scores. Our method can reduce both random errors and biases, whereas existing methods can only reduce random errors in the estimation of treatment effects. Through numerical experiments on both artificial and real-world data, we confirmed that our method can lead to better estimation results than individual analyses. Dimensionality-reduction loses some of the information in the private data and causes performance degradation. However, we observed that in the experiments, sharing intermediate representations with many parties to resolve the lack of subjects and covariates, our method improved performance enough to overcome the degradation caused by dimensionality-reduction. With the spread of our method, intermediate representations can be published as open data to help researchers find causalities and accumulated as a knowledge base.

Navigating automated driving systems (ADSs) through complex driving environments is difficult. Predicting the driving behavior of surrounding human-driven vehicles (HDVs) is a critical component of an ADS. This paper proposes an enhanced motion-planning approach for an ADS in a highway-merging scenario. The proposed enhanced approach utilizes the results of two aspects: the driving behavior and long-term trajectory of surrounding HDVs, which are coupled using a hierarchical model that is used for the motion planning of an ADS to improve driving safety.

Breast cancer remains a global challenge, causing over 1 million deaths globally in 2018. To achieve earlier breast cancer detection, screening x-ray mammography is recommended by health organizations worldwide and has been estimated to decrease breast cancer mortality by 20-40%. Nevertheless, significant false positive and false negative rates, as well as high interpretation costs, leave opportunities for improving quality and access. To address these limitations, there has been much recent interest in applying deep learning to mammography; however, obtaining large amounts of annotated data poses a challenge for training deep learning models for this purpose, as does ensuring generalization beyond the populations represented in the training dataset. Here, we present an annotation-efficient deep learning approach that 1) achieves state-of-the-art performance in mammogram classification, 2) successfully extends to digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT; "3D mammography"), 3) detects cancers in clinically-negative prior mammograms of cancer patients, 4) generalizes well to a population with low screening rates, and 5) outperforms five-out-of-five full-time breast imaging specialists by improving absolute sensitivity by an average of 14%. Our results demonstrate promise towards software that can improve the accuracy of and access to screening mammography worldwide.