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In proof-theoretic semantics, meaning is based on inference. It may seen as the mathematical expression of the inferentialist interpretation of logic. Much recent work has focused on base-extension semantics, in which the validity of formulas is given by an inductive definition generated by provability in a `base' of atomic rules. Base-extension semantics for classical and intuitionistic propositional logic have been explored by several authors. In this paper, we develop base-extension semantics for the classical propositional modal systems K, KT , K4, and S4, with $\square$ as the primary modal operator. We establish appropriate soundness and completeness theorems and establish the duality between $\square$ and a natural presentation of $\lozenge$. We also show that our semantics is in its current form not complete with respect to euclidean modal logics. Our formulation makes essential use of relational structures on bases.

We study a sequential binary prediction setting where the forecaster is evaluated in terms of the calibration distance, which is defined as the $L_1$ distance between the predicted values and the set of predictions that are perfectly calibrated in hindsight. This is analogous to a calibration measure recently proposed by B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu and Nakkiran (STOC 2023) for the offline setting. The calibration distance is a natural and intuitive measure of deviation from perfect calibration, and satisfies a Lipschitz continuity property which does not hold for many popular calibration measures, such as the $L_1$ calibration error and its variants. We prove that there is a forecasting algorithm that achieves an $O(\sqrt{T})$ calibration distance in expectation on an adversarially chosen sequence of $T$ binary outcomes. At the core of this upper bound is a structural result showing that the calibration distance is accurately approximated by the lower calibration distance, which is a continuous relaxation of the former. We then show that an $O(\sqrt{T})$ lower calibration distance can be achieved via a simple minimax argument and a reduction to online learning on a Lipschitz class. On the lower bound side, an $\Omega(T^{1/3})$ calibration distance is shown to be unavoidable, even when the adversary outputs a sequence of independent random bits, and has an additional ability to early stop (i.e., to stop producing random bits and output the same bit in the remaining steps). Interestingly, without this early stopping, the forecaster can achieve a much smaller calibration distance of $\mathrm{polylog}(T)$.

We consider the task of constructing confidence intervals with differential privacy. We propose two private variants of the non-parametric bootstrap, which privately compute the median of the results of multiple ``little'' bootstraps run on partitions of the data and give asymptotic bounds on the coverage error of the resulting confidence intervals. For a fixed differential privacy parameter $\epsilon$, our methods enjoy the same error rates as that of the non-private bootstrap to within logarithmic factors in the sample size $n$. We empirically validate the performance of our methods for mean estimation, median estimation, and logistic regression with both real and synthetic data. Our methods achieve similar coverage accuracy to existing methods (and non-private baselines) while providing notably shorter ($\gtrsim 10$ times) confidence intervals than previous approaches.

There is a notable dearth of results characterizing the preconditioning effect of Adam and showing how it may alleviate the curse of ill-conditioning -- an issue plaguing gradient descent (GD). In this work, we perform a detailed analysis of Adam's preconditioning effect for quadratic functions and quantify to what extent Adam can mitigate the dependence on the condition number of the Hessian. Our key finding is that Adam can suffer less from the condition number but at the expense of suffering a dimension-dependent quantity. Specifically, for a $d$-dimensional quadratic with a diagonal Hessian having condition number $\kappa$, we show that the effective condition number-like quantity controlling the iteration complexity of Adam without momentum is $\mathcal{O}(\min(d, \kappa))$. For a diagonally dominant Hessian, we obtain a bound of $\mathcal{O}(\min(d \sqrt{d \kappa}, \kappa))$ for the corresponding quantity. Thus, when $d < \mathcal{O}(\kappa^p)$ where $p = 1$ for a diagonal Hessian and $p = 1/3$ for a diagonally dominant Hessian, Adam can outperform GD (which has an $\mathcal{O}(\kappa)$ dependence). On the negative side, our results suggest that Adam can be worse than GD for a sufficiently non-diagonal Hessian even if $d \ll \mathcal{O}(\kappa^{1/3})$; we corroborate this with empirical evidence. Finally, we extend our analysis to functions satisfying per-coordinate Lipschitz smoothness and a modified version of the Polyak-\L ojasiewicz condition.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an instrumental variable (IV) approach to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary data. However, the multivariable inverse-variance weighting (IVW) approach, which serves as the foundation for most MR approaches, cannot yield unbiased causal effect estimates in the presence of many weak IVs. To address this problem, we proposed the MR using Bias-corrected Estimating Equation (MRBEE) that can infer unbiased causal relationships with many weak IVs and account for horizontal pleiotropy simultaneously. While the practical significance of MRBEE was demonstrated in our parallel work (Lorincz-Comi (2023)), this paper established the statistical theories of multivariable IVW and MRBEE with many weak IVs. First, we showed that the bias of the multivariable IVW estimate is caused by the error-in-variable bias, whose scale and direction are inflated and influenced by weak instrument bias and sample overlaps of exposures and outcome GWAS cohorts, respectively. Second, we investigated the asymptotic properties of multivariable IVW and MRBEE, showing that MRBEE outperforms multivariable IVW regarding unbiasedness of causal effect estimation and asymptotic validity of causal inference. Finally, we applied MRBEE to examine myopia and revealed that education and outdoor activity are causal to myopia whereas indoor activity is not.

Large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4 have exhibited remarkable performance in a variety of tasks, but this strong performance often comes with the high expense of using paid API services. In this paper, we are motivated to study building an LLM cascade to save the cost of using LLMs, particularly for performing reasoning (e.g., mathematical, causal) tasks. Our cascade pipeline follows the intuition that simpler questions can be addressed by a weaker but more affordable LLM, whereas only the challenging questions necessitate the stronger and more expensive LLM. To realize this decision-making, we consider the "answer consistency" of the weaker LLM as a signal of the question difficulty and propose several methods for the answer sampling and consistency checking, including one leveraging a mixture of two thought representations (i.e., Chain-of-Thought and Program-of-Thought). Through experiments on six reasoning benchmark datasets, with GPT-3.5-turbo and GPT-4 being the weaker and stronger LLMs, respectively, we demonstrate that our proposed LLM cascades can achieve performance comparable to using solely the stronger LLM but require only 40% of its cost.

LiNGAM determines the variable order from cause to effect using additive noise models, but it faces challenges with confounding. Previous methods maintained LiNGAM's fundamental structure while trying to identify and address variables affected by confounding. As a result, these methods required significant computational resources regardless of the presence of confounding, and they did not ensure the detection of all confounding types. In contrast, this paper enhances LiNGAM by introducing LiNGAM-MMI, a method that quantifies the magnitude of confounding using KL divergence and arranges the variables to minimize its impact. This method efficiently achieves a globally optimal variable order through the shortest path problem formulation. LiNGAM-MMI processes data as efficiently as traditional LiNGAM in scenarios without confounding while effectively addressing confounding situations. Our experimental results suggest that LiNGAM-MMI more accurately determines the correct variable order, both in the presence and absence of confounding.

We consider the parameter estimation problem in the deviated Gaussian mixture of experts in which the data are generated from $(1 - \lambda^{\ast}) g_0(Y| X)+ \lambda^{\ast} \sum_{i = 1}^{k_{\ast}} p_{i}^{\ast} f(Y|(a_{i}^{\ast})^{\top}X+b_i^{\ast},\sigma_{i}^{\ast})$, where $X, Y$ are respectively a covariate vector and a response variable, $g_{0}(Y|X)$ is a known function, $\lambda^{\ast} \in [0, 1]$ is true but unknown mixing proportion, and $(p_{i}^{\ast}, a_{i}^{\ast}, b_{i}^{\ast}, \sigma_{i}^{\ast})$ for $1 \leq i \leq k^{\ast}$ are unknown parameters of the Gaussian mixture of experts. This problem arises from the goodness-of-fit test when we would like to test whether the data are generated from $g_{0}(Y|X)$ (null hypothesis) or they are generated from the whole mixture (alternative hypothesis). Based on the algebraic structure of the expert functions and the distinguishability between $g_0$ and the mixture part, we construct novel Voronoi-based loss functions to capture the convergence rates of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for our models. We further demonstrate that our proposed loss functions characterize the local convergence rates of parameter estimation more accurately than the generalized Wasserstein, a loss function being commonly used for estimating parameters in the Gaussian mixture of experts.

This document contains lectures and practical experimentations using Matlab and implementing a system which is actually correctly classifying three words (one, two and three) with the help of a very small database. To achieve this performance, it uses speech modeling specificities, powerful computer algorithms (dynamic time warping and Dijktra's algorithm) and machine learning (nearest neighbor). This document introduces also some machine learning evaluation metrics.

Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.