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Hospitalisations from COVID-19 with Omicron sub-lineages have put a sustained pressure on the English healthcare system. Understanding the expected healthcare demand enables more effective and timely planning from public health. We collect syndromic surveillance sources, which include online search data, NHS 111 telephonic and online triages. Incorporating this data we explore generalised additive models, generalised linear mixed-models, penalised generalised linear models and model ensemble methods to forecast over a two-week forecast horizon at an NHS Trust level. Furthermore, we showcase how model combinations improve forecast scoring through a mean ensemble, weighted ensemble, and ensemble by regression. Validated over multiple Omicron waves, at different spatial scales, we show that leading indicators can improve performance of forecasting models, particularly at epidemic changepoints. Using a variety of scoring rules, we show that ensemble approaches outperformed all individual models, providing higher performance at a 21-day window than the corresponding individual models at 14-days. We introduce a modelling structure used by public health officials in England in 2022 to inform NHS healthcare strategy and policy decision making. This paper explores the significance of ensemble methods to improve forecasting performance and how novel syndromic surveillance can be practically applied in epidemic forecasting.

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Great successes have been reported using Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) to align large language models. Open-source preference datasets and reward models have enabled wider experimentation beyond generic chat settings, particularly to make systems more "helpful" for tasks like web question answering, summarization, and multi-turn dialogue. When optimizing for helpfulness, RLHF has been consistently observed to drive models to produce longer outputs. This paper demonstrates that optimizing for response length is a significant factor behind RLHF's reported improvements in these settings. First, we study the relationship between reward and length for reward models trained on three open-source preference datasets for helpfulness. Here, length correlates strongly with reward, and improvements in reward score are driven in large part by shifting the distribution over output lengths. We then explore interventions during both RL and reward model learning to see if we can achieve the same downstream improvements as RLHF without increasing length. While our interventions mitigate length increases, they aren't uniformly effective across settings. Furthermore, we find that even running RLHF with a reward based solely on length can reproduce most of the downstream improvements over the initial policy model, showing that reward models in these settings have a long way to go.

The note clarifies a gap in the proof of the minimum distance for Projective Reed-Muller Codes. The gap was identified by S.Ghorpade and R.Ludhani in a recent article. Here the original thoughts are explained and the gap closed.

An extension of Transformers is proposed that enables explicit relational reasoning through a novel module called the Abstractor. At the core of the Abstractor is a variant of attention called relational cross-attention. The approach is motivated by an architectural inductive bias for relational learning that disentangles relational information from extraneous features about individual objects. This enables explicit relational reasoning, supporting abstraction and generalization from limited data. The Abstractor is first evaluated on simple discriminative relational tasks and compared to existing relational architectures. Next, the Abstractor is evaluated on purely relational sequence-to-sequence tasks, where dramatic improvements are seen in sample efficiency compared to standard Transformers. Finally, Abstractors are evaluated on a collection of tasks based on mathematical problem solving, where modest but consistent improvements in performance and sample efficiency are observed.

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. As a case study, we consider the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We study three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We assess previous methods used for fitting and evaluating these models, and we develop data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches to diagnosis of model misspecification, development of alternative models, and computational improvements in optimization, in the context of likelihood-based inference on nonlinear dynamic systems. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system.

We address the challenges associated with deploying neural networks on CPUs, with a particular focus on minimizing inference time while maintaining accuracy. Our novel approach is to use the dataflow (i.e., computation order) of a neural network to explore data reuse opportunities using heuristic-guided analysis and a code generation framework, which enables exploration of various Single Instruction, Multiple Data (SIMD) implementations to achieve optimized neural network execution. Our results demonstrate that the dataflow that keeps outputs in SIMD registers while also maximizing both input and weight reuse consistently yields the best performance for a wide variety of inference workloads, achieving up to 3x speedup for 8-bit neural networks, and up to 4.8x speedup for binary neural networks, respectively, over the optimized implementations of neural networks today.

With the emergence of large language models (LLMs), multimodal models based on LLMs have demonstrated significant potential. Models such as LLaSM, X-LLM, and SpeechGPT exhibit an impressive ability to comprehend and generate human instructions. However, their performance often falters when faced with complex tasks like end-to-end speech translation (E2E-ST), a cross-language and cross-modal translation task. In comparison to single-modal models, multimodal models lag behind in these scenarios. This paper introduces LST, a Large multimodal model designed to excel at the E2E-ST task. LST consists of a speech frontend, an adapter, and a LLM backend. The training of LST consists of two stages: (1) Modality adjustment, where the adapter is tuned to align speech representation with text embedding space, and (2) Downstream task fine-tuning, where both the adapter and LLM model are trained to optimize performance on the E2EST task. Experimental results on the MuST-C speech translation benchmark demonstrate that LST-13B achieves BLEU scores of 30.39/41.55/35.33 on En-De/En-Fr/En-Es language pairs, surpassing previous models and establishing a new state-of-the-art. Additionally, we conduct an in-depth analysis of single-modal model selection and the impact of training strategies, which lays the foundation for future research. We will open up our code and models after review.

Intelligent agents rely on AI/ML functionalities to predict the consequence of possible actions and optimise the policy. However, the effort of the research community in addressing prediction accuracy has been so intense (and successful) that it created the illusion that the more accurate the learner prediction (or classification) the better would have been the final decision. Now, such an assumption is valid only if the (human or artificial) decision maker has complete knowledge of the utility of the possible actions. This paper argues that AI/ML community has taken so far a too unbalanced approach by devoting excessive attention to the estimation of the state (or target) probability to the detriment of accurate and reliable estimations of the utility. In particular, few evidence exists about the impact of a wrong utility assessment on the resulting expected utility of the decision strategy. This situation is creating a substantial gap between the expectations and the effective impact of AI solutions, as witnessed by recent criticisms and emphasised by the regulatory legislative efforts. This paper aims to study this gap by quantifying the sensitivity of the expected utility to the utility uncertainty and comparing it to the one due to probability estimation. Theoretical and simulated results show that an inaccurate utility assessment may as (and sometimes) more harmful than a poor probability estimation. The final recommendation to the community is then to undertake a focus shift from a pure accuracy-driven (or obsessed) approach to a more utility-aware methodology.

Recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) have brought remarkable success in the field of LLM-as-Agent. Nevertheless, a prevalent assumption is that the information processed by LLMs is consistently honest, neglecting the pervasive deceptive or misleading information in human society and AI-generated content. This oversight makes LLMs susceptible to malicious manipulations, potentially resulting in detrimental outcomes. This study utilizes the intricate Avalon game as a testbed to explore LLMs' potential in deceptive environments. Avalon, full of misinformation and requiring sophisticated logic, manifests as a "Game-of-Thoughts". Inspired by the efficacy of humans' recursive thinking and perspective-taking in the Avalon game, we introduce a novel framework, Recursive Contemplation (ReCon), to enhance LLMs' ability to identify and counteract deceptive information. ReCon combines formulation and refinement contemplation processes; formulation contemplation produces initial thoughts and speech, while refinement contemplation further polishes them. Additionally, we incorporate first-order and second-order perspective transitions into these processes respectively. Specifically, the first-order allows an LLM agent to infer others' mental states, and the second-order involves understanding how others perceive the agent's mental state. After integrating ReCon with different LLMs, extensive experiment results from the Avalon game indicate its efficacy in aiding LLMs to discern and maneuver around deceptive information without extra fine-tuning and data. Finally, we offer a possible explanation for the efficacy of ReCon and explore the current limitations of LLMs in terms of safety, reasoning, speaking style, and format, potentially furnishing insights for subsequent research.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been proven to be effective in various network-related tasks. Most existing GNNs usually exploit the low-frequency signals of node features, which gives rise to one fundamental question: is the low-frequency information all we need in the real world applications? In this paper, we first present an experimental investigation assessing the roles of low-frequency and high-frequency signals, where the results clearly show that exploring low-frequency signal only is distant from learning an effective node representation in different scenarios. How can we adaptively learn more information beyond low-frequency information in GNNs? A well-informed answer can help GNNs enhance the adaptability. We tackle this challenge and propose a novel Frequency Adaptation Graph Convolutional Networks (FAGCN) with a self-gating mechanism, which can adaptively integrate different signals in the process of message passing. For a deeper understanding, we theoretically analyze the roles of low-frequency signals and high-frequency signals on learning node representations, which further explains why FAGCN can perform well on different types of networks. Extensive experiments on six real-world networks validate that FAGCN not only alleviates the over-smoothing problem, but also has advantages over the state-of-the-arts.

We introduce a new language representation model called BERT, which stands for Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers. Unlike recent language representation models, BERT is designed to pre-train deep bidirectional representations from unlabeled text by jointly conditioning on both left and right context in all layers. As a result, the pre-trained BERT model can be fine-tuned with just one additional output layer to create state-of-the-art models for a wide range of tasks, such as question answering and language inference, without substantial task-specific architecture modifications. BERT is conceptually simple and empirically powerful. It obtains new state-of-the-art results on eleven natural language processing tasks, including pushing the GLUE score to 80.5% (7.7% point absolute improvement), MultiNLI accuracy to 86.7% (4.6% absolute improvement), SQuAD v1.1 question answering Test F1 to 93.2 (1.5 point absolute improvement) and SQuAD v2.0 Test F1 to 83.1 (5.1 point absolute improvement).

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