Security risks from AI have motivated calls for international agreements that guardrail the technology. However, even if states could agree on what rules to set on AI, the problem of verifying compliance might make these agreements infeasible. To help clarify the difficulty of verifying agreements on AI$\unicode{x2013}$and identify actions that might reduce this difficulty$\unicode{x2013}$this report examines the case study of verification in nuclear arms control. We review the implementation, track records, and politics of verification across three types of nuclear arms control agreements. Then, we consider implications for the case of AI, especially AI development that relies on thousands of highly specialized chips. In this context, the case study suggests that, with certain preparations, the foreseeable challenges of verification would be reduced to levels that were successfully managed in nuclear arms control. To avoid even worse challenges, substantial preparations are needed: (1) developing privacy-preserving, secure, and acceptably priced methods for verifying the compliance of hardware, given inspection access; and (2) building an initial, incomplete verification system, with authorities and precedents that allow its gaps to be quickly closed if and when the political will arises.
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Research data are often released upon journal publication to enable result verification and reproducibility. For that reason, research dissemination infrastructures typically support diverse datasets coming from numerous disciplines, from tabular data and program code to audio-visual files. Metadata, or data about data, is critical to making research outputs adequately documented and FAIR. Aiming to contribute to the discussions on the development of metadata for research outputs, I conducted an exploratory analysis to determine how research datasets cluster based on what researchers organically deposit together. I use the content of over 40,000 datasets from the Harvard Dataverse research data repository as my sample for the cluster analysis. I find that the majority of the clusters are formed by single-type datasets, while in the rest of the sample, no meaningful clusters can be identified. For the result interpretation, I use the metadata standard employed by DataCite, a leading organization for documenting a scholarly record, and map existing resource types to my results. About 65% of the sample can be described with a single-type metadata (such as Dataset, Software or Report), while the rest would require aggregate metadata types. Though DataCite supports an aggregate type such as a Collection, I argue that a significant number of datasets, in particular those containing both data and code files (about 20% of the sample) would be more accurately described as a Replication resource metadata type. Such resource type would be particularly useful in facilitating research reproducibility.
We propose a learning-based method to recover normals, specularity, and roughness from a single diffuse image of a material, using microgeometry appearance as our primary cue. Previous methods that work on single images tend to produce over-smooth outputs with artifacts, operate at limited resolution, or train one model per class with little room for generalization. Previous methods that work on single images tend to produce over-smooth outputs with artifacts, operate at limited resolution, or train one model per class with little room for generalization. In contrast, in this work, we propose a novel capture approach that leverages a generative network with attention and a U-Net discriminator, which shows outstanding performance integrating global information at reduced computational complexity. We showcase the performance of our method with a real dataset of digitized textile materials and show that a commodity flatbed scanner can produce the type of diffuse illumination required as input to our method. Additionally, because the problem might be illposed -more than a single diffuse image might be needed to disambiguate the specular reflection- or because the training dataset is not representative enough of the real distribution, we propose a novel framework to quantify the model's confidence about its prediction at test time. Our method is the first one to deal with the problem of modeling uncertainty in material digitization, increasing the trustworthiness of the process and enabling more intelligent strategies for dataset creation, as we demonstrate with an active learning experiment.
The ability to anticipate pedestrian motion changes is a critical capability for autonomous vehicles. In urban environments, pedestrians may enter the road area and create a high risk for driving, and it is important to identify these cases. Typical predictors use the trajectory history to predict future motion, however in cases of motion initiation, motion in the trajectory may only be clearly visible after a delay, which can result in the pedestrian has entered the road area before an accurate prediction can be made. Appearance data includes useful information such as changes of gait, which are early indicators of motion changes, and can inform trajectory prediction. This work presents a comparative evaluation of trajectory-only and appearance-based methods for pedestrian prediction, and introduces a new dataset experiment for prediction using appearance. We create two trajectory and image datasets based on the combination of image and trajectory sequences from the popular NuScenes dataset, and examine prediction of trajectories using observed appearance to influence futures. This shows some advantages over trajectory prediction alone, although problems with the dataset prevent advantages of appearance-based models from being shown. We describe methods for improving the dataset and experiment to allow benefits of appearance-based models to be captured.
This paper is on the automated driving architecture and operation of a light commercial vehicle. Simple longitudinal and lateral dynamic models of the vehicle and a more detailed CarSim model are developed and used in simulations and controller design and evaluation. Experimental validation is used to make sure that the models used represent the actual response of the vehicle as closely as possible. The vehicle is made drive-by-wire by interfacing with the existing throttle-by-wire, by adding an active vacuum booster for brake-by-wire and by adding a steering actuator for steer-by-wire operation. Vehicle localization is achieved by using a GPS sensor integrated with six axes IMU with a built-in INS algorithm and a digital compass for heading information. Front looking radar, lidar and camera are used for environmental sensing. Communication with the road infrastructure and other vehicles is made possible by a vehicle to vehicle communication modem. A dedicated computer under real time Linux is used to collect, process and distribute sensor information. A dSPACE MicroAutoBox is used for drive-by-wire controls. CACC based longitudinal control and path tracking of a map of GPS waypoints are used to present the operation of this automated driving vehicle.
The adoption of data science brings vast benefits to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) including business productivity, economic growth, innovation and jobs creation. Data Science can support SMEs to optimise production processes, anticipate customers' needs, predict machinery failures and deliver efficient smart services. Businesses can also harness the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data and the smart use of digital technologies to enhance productivity and performance, paving the way for innovation. However, integrating data science decisions into an SME requires both skills and IT investments. In most cases, such expenses are beyond the means of SMEs due to limited resources and restricted access to financing. This paper presents trends and challenges towards an effective data-driven decision making for organisations based on a case study of 85 SMEs, mostly from the West Midlands region of England. The work is supported as part of a 3 years ERDF (European Regional Development Funded project) in the areas of big data management, analytics and business intelligence. We present two case studies that demonstrates the potential of Digitisation, AI and Machine Learning and use these as examples to unveil challenges and showcase the wealth of current available opportunities for SMEs.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday conversation and our lives. It is considered as the new electricity that is revolutionizing the world. AI is heavily invested in both industry and academy. However, there is also a lot of hype in the current AI debate. AI based on so-called deep learning has achieved impressive results in many problems, but its limits are already visible. AI has been under research since the 1940s, and the industry has seen many ups and downs due to over-expectations and related disappointments that have followed. The purpose of this book is to give a realistic picture of AI, its history, its potential and limitations. We believe that AI is a helper, not a ruler of humans. We begin by describing what AI is and how it has evolved over the decades. After fundamentals, we explain the importance of massive data for the current mainstream of artificial intelligence. The most common representations for AI, methods, and machine learning are covered. In addition, the main application areas are introduced. Computer vision has been central to the development of AI. The book provides a general introduction to computer vision, and includes an exposure to the results and applications of our own research. Emotions are central to human intelligence, but little use has been made in AI. We present the basics of emotional intelligence and our own research on the topic. We discuss super-intelligence that transcends human understanding, explaining why such achievement seems impossible on the basis of present knowledge,and how AI could be improved. Finally, a summary is made of the current state of AI and what to do in the future. In the appendix, we look at the development of AI education, especially from the perspective of contents at our own university.
Over the past several years, new machine learning accelerators were being announced and released every month for a variety of applications from speech recognition, video object detection, assisted driving, and many data center applications. This paper updates the survey of AI accelerators and processors from past two years. This paper collects and summarizes the current commercial accelerators that have been publicly announced with peak performance and power consumption numbers. The performance and power values are plotted on a scatter graph, and a number of dimensions and observations from the trends on this plot are again discussed and analyzed. This year, we also compile a list of benchmarking performance results and compute the computational efficiency with respect to peak performance.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming integrated into military Command and Control (C2) systems as a strategic priority for many defence forces. The successful implementation of AI is promising to herald a significant leap in C2 agility through automation. However, realistic expectations need to be set on what AI can achieve in the foreseeable future. This paper will argue that AI could lead to a fragility trap, whereby the delegation of C2 functions to an AI could increase the fragility of C2, resulting in catastrophic strategic failures. This calls for a new framework for AI in C2 to avoid this trap. We will argue that antifragility along with agility should form the core design principles for AI-enabled C2 systems. This duality is termed Agile, Antifragile, AI-Enabled Command and Control (A3IC2). An A3IC2 system continuously improves its capacity to perform in the face of shocks and surprises through overcompensation from feedback during the C2 decision-making cycle. An A3IC2 system will not only be able to survive within a complex operational environment, it will also thrive, benefiting from the inevitable shocks and volatility of war.
Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.
While existing machine learning models have achieved great success for sentiment classification, they typically do not explicitly capture sentiment-oriented word interaction, which can lead to poor results for fine-grained analysis at the snippet level (a phrase or sentence). Factorization Machine provides a possible approach to learning element-wise interaction for recommender systems, but they are not directly applicable to our task due to the inability to model contexts and word sequences. In this work, we develop two Position-aware Factorization Machines which consider word interaction, context and position information. Such information is jointly encoded in a set of sentiment-oriented word interaction vectors. Compared to traditional word embeddings, SWI vectors explicitly capture sentiment-oriented word interaction and simplify the parameter learning. Experimental results show that while they have comparable performance with state-of-the-art methods for document-level classification, they benefit the snippet/sentence-level sentiment analysis.
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