This paper revisits classical works of Rauch (1963, et al. 1965) and develops a novel method for maximum likelihood (ML) smoothing estimation from incomplete information/data of stochastic state-space systems. Score function and conditional observed information matrices of incomplete data are introduced and their distributional identities are established. Using these identities, the ML smoother $\widehat{x}_{k\vert n}^s =\argmax_{x_k} \log f(x_k,\widehat{x}_{k+1\vert n}^s, y_{0:n}\vert\theta)$, $k\leq n-1$, is presented. The result shows that the ML smoother gives an estimate of state $x_k$ with more adherence of loglikehood having less standard errors than that of the ML state estimator $\widehat{x}_k=\argmax_{x_k} \log f(x_k,y_{0:k}\vert\theta)$, with $\widehat{x}_{n\vert n}^s=\widehat{x}_n$. Recursive estimation is given in terms of an EM-gradient-particle algorithm which extends the work of \cite{Lange} for ML smoothing estimation. The algorithm has an explicit iteration update which lacks in (\cite{Ramadan}) EM-algorithm for smoothing. A sequential Monte Carlo method is developed for valuation of the score function and observed information matrices. A recursive equation for the covariance matrix of estimation error is developed to calculate the standard errors. In the case of linear systems, the method shows that the Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother is a fully efficient smoothing state-estimator whose covariance matrix coincides with the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound, the inverse of expected information matrix. Furthermore, the RTS smoother coincides with the Kalman filter having less covariance matrix. Numerical studies are performed, confirming the accuracy of the main results.
相關內容
Robots with the ability to balance time against the thoroughness of search have the potential to provide time-critical assistance in applications such as search and rescue. Current advances in ergodic coverage-based search methods have enabled robots to completely explore and search an area in a fixed amount of time. However, optimizing time against the quality of autonomous ergodic search has yet to be demonstrated. In this paper, we investigate solutions to the time-optimal ergodic search problem for fast and adaptive robotic search and exploration. We pose the problem as a minimum time problem with an ergodic inequality constraint whose upper bound regulates and balances the granularity of search against time. Solutions to the problem are presented analytically using Pontryagin's conditions of optimality and demonstrated numerically through a direct transcription optimization approach. We show the efficacy of the approach in generating time-optimal ergodic search trajectories in simulation and with drone experiments in a cluttered environment. Obstacle avoidance is shown to be readily integrated into our formulation, and we perform ablation studies that investigate parameter dependence on optimized time and trajectory sensitivity for search.
This study aims to solve the over-reliance on the rank estimation strategy in the standard tensor factorization-based tensor recovery and the problem of a large computational cost in the standard t-SVD-based tensor recovery. To this end, we proposes a new tensor norm with a dual low-rank constraint, which utilizes the low-rank prior and rank information at the same time. In the proposed tensor norm, a series of surrogate functions of the tensor tubal rank can be used to achieve better performance in harness low-rankness within tensor data. It is proven theoretically that the resulting tensor completion model can effectively avoid performance degradation caused by inaccurate rank estimation. Meanwhile, attributed to the proposed dual low-rank constraint, the t-SVD of a smaller tensor instead of the original big one is computed by using a sample trick. Based on this, the total cost at each iteration of the optimization algorithm is reduced to $\mathcal{O}(n^3\log n +kn^3)$ from $\mathcal{O}(n^4)$ achieved with standard methods, where $k$ is the estimation of the true tensor rank and far less than $n$. Our method was evaluated on synthetic and real-world data, and it demonstrated superior performance and efficiency over several existing state-of-the-art tensor completion methods.
We study the problem of solving linear program in the streaming model. Given a constraint matrix $A\in \mathbb{R}^{m\times n}$ and vectors $b\in \mathbb{R}^m, c\in \mathbb{R}^n$, we develop a space-efficient interior point method that optimizes solely on the dual program. To this end, we obtain efficient algorithms for various different problems: * For general linear programs, we can solve them in $\widetilde O(\sqrt n\log(1/\epsilon))$ passes and $\widetilde O(n^2)$ space for an $\epsilon$-approximate solution. To the best of our knowledge, this is the most efficient LP solver in streaming with no polynomial dependence on $m$ for both space and passes. * For bipartite graphs, we can solve the minimum vertex cover and maximum weight matching problem in $\widetilde O(\sqrt{m})$ passes and $\widetilde O(n)$ space. In addition to our space-efficient IPM, we also give algorithms for solving SDD systems and isolation lemma in $\widetilde O(n)$ spaces, which are the cornerstones for our graph results.
Typical generative diffusion models rely on a Gaussian diffusion process for training the backward transformations, which can then be used to generate samples from Gaussian noise. However, real world data often takes place in discrete-state spaces, including many scientific applications. Here, we develop a theoretical formulation for arbitrary discrete-state Markov processes in the forward diffusion process using exact (as opposed to variational) analysis. We relate the theory to the existing continuous-state Gaussian diffusion as well as other approaches to discrete diffusion, and identify the corresponding reverse-time stochastic process and score function in the continuous-time setting, and the reverse-time mapping in the discrete-time setting. As an example of this framework, we introduce ``Blackout Diffusion'', which learns to produce samples from an empty image instead of from noise. Numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10, Binarized MNIST, and CelebA datasets confirm the feasibility of our approach. Generalizing from specific (Gaussian) forward processes to discrete-state processes without a variational approximation sheds light on how to interpret diffusion models, which we discuss.
We study a statistical model for infinite dimensional Gaussian random variables with unknown parameters. For this model we derive linear estimators for the mean and the variance of the Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, we construct confidence intervals and perform hypothesis testing. An application to Machine Learning is presented as well, namely we treat a linear regression problem in infinite dimensions.
We study four NP-hard optimal seat arrangement problems [Bodlaender et al., 2020a], which each have as input a set of n agents, where each agent has cardinal preferences over other agents, and an n-vertex undirected graph (called seat graph). The task is to assign each agent to a distinct vertex in the seat graph such that either the sum of utilities or the minimum utility is maximized, or it is envy-free or exchange-stable. Aiming at identifying hard and easy cases, we extensively study the algorithmic complexity of the four problems by looking into natural graph classes for the seat graph (e.g., paths, cycles, stars, or matchings), problem-specific parameters (e.g., the number of non-isolated vertices in the seat graph or the maximum number of agents towards whom an agent has non-zero preferences), and preference structures (e.g., non-negative or symmetric preferences). For strict preferences and seat graphs with disjoint edges and isolated vertices, we correct an error by Bodlaender et al. [2020b] and show that finding an envy-free arrangement remains NP-hard in this case.
Inertial-based navigation refers to the navigation methods or systems that have inertial information or sensors as the core part and integrate a spectrum of other kinds of sensors for enhanced performance. Through a series of papers, the authors attempt to explore information blending of inertial-based navigation by a polynomial optimization method. The basic idea is to model rigid motions as finite-order polynomials and then attacks the involved navigation problems by optimally solving their coefficients, taking into considerations the constraints posed by inertial sensors and others. In the current paper, a continuous-time attitude estimation approach is proposed, which transforms the attitude estimation into a constant parameter determination problem by the polynomial optimization. Specifically, the continuous attitude is first approximated by a Chebyshev polynomial, of which the unknown Chebyshev coefficients are determined by minimizing the weighted residuals of initial conditions, dynamics and measurements. We apply the derived estimator to the attitude estimation with the magnetic and inertial sensors. Simulation and field tests show that the estimator has much better stability and faster convergence than the traditional extended Kalman filter does, especially in the challenging large initial state error scenarios.
It is well known, that Fr\'echet means on non-Euclidean spaces may exhibit nonstandard asymptotic rates depending on curvature. Even for distributions featuring standard asymptotic rates, there are non-Euclidean effects, altering finite sampling rates up to considerable sample sizes. These effects can be measured by the variance modulation function proposed by Pennec (2019). Among others, in view of statistical inference, it is important to bound this function on intervals of sampling sizes. In a first step into this direction, for the special case of a K-spider we give such an interval, based only on folded moments and total probabilities of spider legs and illustrate the method by simulations.
L-moments are expected values of linear combinations of order statistics that provide robust alternatives to traditional moments. The estimation of parametric models by matching sample L-moments -- a procedure known as ``method of L-moments'' -- has been shown to outperform maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) in small samples from popular distributions. The choice of the number of L-moments to be used in estimation remains \textit{ad-hoc}, though: researchers typically set the number of L-moments equal to the number of parameters, as to achieve an order condition for identification. This approach is generally inefficient in larger sample sizes. In this paper, we show that, by properly choosing the number of L-moments and weighting these accordingly, we are able to construct an estimator that outperforms MLE in finite samples, and yet does not suffer from efficiency losses asymptotically. We do so by considering a ``generalised'' method of L-moments estimator and deriving its asymptotic properties in a framework where the number of L-moments varies with sample size. We then propose methods to automatically select the number of L-moments in a given sample. Monte Carlo evidence shows our proposed approach is able to outperform (in a mean-squared error sense) MLE in smaller samples, whilst working as well as it in larger samples.
We study estimation of causal effects in staggered rollout designs, i.e. settings where there is staggered treatment adoption and the timing of treatment is as-good-as randomly assigned. We derive the most efficient estimator in a class of estimators that nests several popular generalized difference-in-differences methods. A feasible plug-in version of the efficient estimator is asymptotically unbiased with efficiency (weakly) dominating that of existing approaches. We provide both $t$-based and permutation-test-based methods for inference. In an application to a training program for police officers, confidence intervals for the proposed estimator are as much as eight times shorter than for existing approaches.
小貼士
登錄享
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191