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We present a novel framework for distributionally robust optimization (DRO), called cost-aware DRO (CADRO). The key idea of CADRO is to exploit the cost structure in the design of the ambiguity set to reduce conservatism. Particularly, the set specifically constrains the worst-case distribution along the direction in which the expected cost of an approximate solution increases most rapidly. We prove that CADRO provides both a high-confidence upper bound and a consistent estimator of the out-of-sample expected cost, and show empirically that it produces solutions that are substantially less conservative than existing DRO methods, while providing the same guarantees.

The proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm stands as one of the most prosperous methods in the field of reinforcement learning (RL). Despite its success, the theoretical understanding of PPO remains deficient. Specifically, it is unclear whether PPO or its optimistic variants can effectively solve linear Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are arguably the simplest models in RL with function approximation. To bridge this gap, we propose an optimistic variant of PPO for episodic adversarial linear MDPs with full-information feedback, and establish a $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d^{3/4}H^2K^{3/4})$ regret for it. Here $d$ is the ambient dimension of linear MDPs, $H$ is the length of each episode, and $K$ is the number of episodes. Compared with existing policy-based algorithms, we achieve the state-of-the-art regret bound in both stochastic linear MDPs and adversarial linear MDPs with full information. Additionally, our algorithm design features a novel multi-batched updating mechanism and the theoretical analysis utilizes a new covering number argument of value and policy classes, which might be of independent interest.

Optimal control problems driven by evolutionary partial differential equations arise in many industrial applications and their numerical solution is known to be a challenging problem. One approach to obtain an optimal feedback control is via the Dynamic Programming principle. Nevertheless, despite many theoretical results, this method has been applied only to very special cases since it suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Our goalis to mitigate this crucial obstruction developing a new version of dynamic programming algorithms based on a tree structure and exploiting the compact representation of the dynamical systems based on tensors notations via a model reduction approach. Here, we want to show how this algorithm can be constructed for general nonlinear control problems and to illustrate its performances on a number of challenging numerical tests. Our numerical results indicate a large decrease in memory requirements, as well as computational time, for the proposed problems. Moreover, we prove the convergence of the algorithm and give some hints on its implementation

The use of deep learning approaches for image reconstruction is of contemporary interest in radiology, especially for approaches that solve inverse problems associated with imaging. In deployment, these models may be exposed to input distributions that are widely shifted from training data, due in part to data biases or drifts. We propose a metric based on local Lipschitz determined from a single trained model that can be used to estimate the model uncertainty for image reconstructions. We demonstrate a monotonic relationship between the local Lipschitz value and Mean Absolute Error and show that this method can be used to provide a threshold that determines whether a given DL reconstruction approach was well suited to the task. Our uncertainty estimation method can be used to identify out-of-distribution test samples, relate information regarding epistemic uncertainties, and guide proper data augmentation. Quantifying uncertainty of learned reconstruction approaches is especially pertinent to the medical domain where reconstructed images must remain diagnostically accurate.

Deep learning models, including modern systems like large language models, are well known to offer unreliable estimates of the uncertainty of their decisions. In order to improve the quality of the confidence levels, also known as calibration, of a model, common approaches entail the addition of either data-dependent or data-independent regularization terms to the training loss. Data-dependent regularizers have been recently introduced in the context of conventional frequentist learning to penalize deviations between confidence and accuracy. In contrast, data-independent regularizers are at the core of Bayesian learning, enforcing adherence of the variational distribution in the model parameter space to a prior density. The former approach is unable to quantify epistemic uncertainty, while the latter is severely affected by model misspecification. In light of the limitations of both methods, this paper proposes an integrated framework, referred to as calibration-aware Bayesian neural networks (CA-BNNs), that applies both regularizers while optimizing over a variational distribution as in Bayesian learning. Numerical results validate the advantages of the proposed approach in terms of expected calibration error (ECE) and reliability diagrams.

We consider the well-studied Robust $(k, z)$-Clustering problem, which generalizes the classic $k$-Median, $k$-Means, and $k$-Center problems. Given a constant $z\ge 1$, the input to Robust $(k, z)$-Clustering is a set $P$ of $n$ weighted points in a metric space $(M,\delta)$ and a positive integer $k$. Further, each point belongs to one (or more) of the $m$ many different groups $S_1,S_2,\ldots,S_m$. Our goal is to find a set $X$ of $k$ centers such that $\max_{i \in [m]} \sum_{p \in S_i} w(p) \delta(p,X)^z$ is minimized. This problem arises in the domains of robust optimization [Anthony, Goyal, Gupta, Nagarajan, Math. Oper. Res. 2010] and in algorithmic fairness. For polynomial time computation, an approximation factor of $O(\log m/\log\log m)$ is known [Makarychev, Vakilian, COLT $2021$], which is tight under a plausible complexity assumption even in the line metrics. For FPT time, there is a $(3^z+\epsilon)$-approximation algorithm, which is tight under GAP-ETH [Goyal, Jaiswal, Inf. Proc. Letters, 2023]. Motivated by the tight lower bounds for general discrete metrics, we focus on \emph{geometric} spaces such as the (discrete) high-dimensional Euclidean setting and metrics of low doubling dimension, which play an important role in data analysis applications. First, for a universal constant $\eta_0 >0.0006$, we devise a $3^z(1-\eta_{0})$-factor FPT approximation algorithm for discrete high-dimensional Euclidean spaces thereby bypassing the lower bound for general metrics. We complement this result by showing that even the special case of $k$-Center in dimension $\Theta(\log n)$ is $(\sqrt{3/2}- o(1))$-hard to approximate for FPT algorithms. Finally, we complete the FPT approximation landscape by designing an FPT $(1+\epsilon)$-approximation scheme (EPAS) for the metric of sub-logarithmic doubling dimension.

Random smoothing data augmentation is a unique form of regularization that can prevent overfitting by introducing noise to the input data, encouraging the model to learn more generalized features. Despite its success in various applications, there has been a lack of systematic study on the regularization ability of random smoothing. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by presenting a framework for random smoothing regularization that can adaptively and effectively learn a wide range of ground truth functions belonging to the classical Sobolev spaces. Specifically, we investigate two underlying function spaces: the Sobolev space of low intrinsic dimension, which includes the Sobolev space in $D$-dimensional Euclidean space or low-dimensional sub-manifolds as special cases, and the mixed smooth Sobolev space with a tensor structure. By using random smoothing regularization as novel convolution-based smoothing kernels, we can attain optimal convergence rates in these cases using a kernel gradient descent algorithm, either with early stopping or weight decay. It is noteworthy that our estimator can adapt to the structural assumptions of the underlying data and avoid the curse of dimensionality. This is achieved through various choices of injected noise distributions such as Gaussian, Laplace, or general polynomial noises, allowing for broad adaptation to the aforementioned structural assumptions of the underlying data. The convergence rate depends only on the effective dimension, which may be significantly smaller than the actual data dimension. We conduct numerical experiments on simulated data to validate our theoretical results.

Consider a multi-dimensional supercritical branching process with offspring distribution in a parametric family. Here, each vector coordinate corresponds to the number of offspring of a given type. The process is observed under family-size sampling: a random sample is drawn, each individual reporting its vector of brood sizes. In this work, we show that the set in which no siblings are sampled (so that the sample can be considered independent) has probability converging to one under certain conditions on the sampling size. Furthermore, we show that the sampling distribution of the observed sizes converges to the product of identical distributions, hence developing a framework for which the process can be considered iid, and the usual methods for parameter estimation apply. We provide asymptotic distributions for the resulting estimators.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.