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Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-chosen probability. In many classification problems, we would like to obtain a stronger guarantee -- that for test points of a specific class, the prediction set contains the true label with the same user-chosen probability. Existing conformal prediction methods do not work well when there is a limited amount of labeled data per class, as is often the case in real applications where the number of classes is large. We propose a method called clustered conformal prediction, which clusters together classes that have "similar" conformal scores and then performs conformal prediction at the cluster level. Based on empirical evaluation across four image data sets with many (up to 1000) classes, we find that clustered conformal typically outperforms existing methods in terms of class-conditional coverage and set size metrics.

Despite their many desirable properties, Gaussian processes (GPs) are often compared unfavorably to deep neural networks (NNs) for lacking the ability to learn representations. Recent efforts to bridge the gap between GPs and deep NNs have yielded a new class of inter-domain variational GPs in which the inducing variables correspond to hidden units of a feedforward NN. In this work, we examine some practical issues associated with this approach and propose an extension that leverages the orthogonal decomposition of GPs to mitigate these limitations. In particular, we introduce spherical inter-domain features to construct more flexible data-dependent basis functions for both the principal and orthogonal components of the GP approximation and show that incorporating NN activation features under this framework not only alleviates these shortcomings but is more scalable than alternative strategies. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

The increasing complexity of data requires methods and models that can effectively handle intricate structures, as simplifying them would result in loss of information. While several analytical tools have been developed to work with complex data objects in their original form, these tools are typically limited to single-type variables. In this work, we propose energy trees as a regression and classification model capable of accommodating structured covariates of various types. Energy trees leverage energy statistics to extend the capabilities of conditional inference trees, from which they inherit sound statistical foundations, interpretability, scale invariance, and freedom from distributional assumptions. We specifically focus on functional and graph-structured covariates, while also highlighting the model's flexibility in integrating other variable types. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the model's competitive performance in terms of variable selection and robustness to overfitting. Finally, we assess the model's predictive ability through two empirical analyses involving human biological data. Energy trees are implemented in the R package etree.

This paper introduces a novel method leveraging bi-encoder-based detectors along with a comprehensive study comparing different out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods in NLP using different feature extractors. The feature extraction stage employs popular methods such as Universal Sentence Encoder (USE), BERT, MPNET, and GLOVE to extract informative representations from textual data. The evaluation is conducted on several datasets, including CLINC150, ROSTD-Coarse, SNIPS, and YELLOW. Performance is assessed using metrics such as F1-Score, MCC, FPR@90, FPR@95, AUPR, an AUROC. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed bi-encoder-based detectors outperform other methods, both those that require OOD labels in training and those that do not, across all datasets, showing great potential for OOD detection in NLP. The simplicity of the training process and the superior detection performance make them applicable to real-world scenarios. The presented methods and benchmarking metrics serve as a valuable resource for future research in OOD detection, enabling further advancements in this field. The code and implementation details can be found on our GitHub repository: //github.com/yellowmessenger/ood-detection.

There are well-established methods for identifying the causal effect of a time-varying treatment applied at discrete time points. However, in the real world, many treatments are continuous or have a finer time scale than the one used for measurement or analysis. While researchers have investigated the discrepancies between estimates under varying discretization scales using simulations and empirical data, it is still unclear how the choice of discretization scale affects causal inference. To address this gap, we present a framework to understand how discretization scales impact the properties of causal inferences about the effect of a time-varying treatment. We introduce the concept of "identification bias", which is the difference between the causal estimand for a continuous-time treatment and the purported estimand of a discretized version of the treatment. We show that this bias can persist even with an infinite number of longitudinal treatment-outcome trajectories. We specifically examine the identification problem in a class of linear stochastic continuous-time data-generating processes and demonstrate the identification bias of the g-formula in this context. Our findings indicate that discretization bias can significantly impact empirical analysis, especially when there are limited repeated measurements. Therefore, we recommend that researchers carefully consider the choice of discretization scale and perform sensitivity analysis to address this bias. We also propose a simple and heuristic quantitative measure for sensitivity concerning discretization and suggest that researchers report this measure along with point and interval estimates in their work. By doing so, researchers can better understand and address the potential impact of discretization bias on causal inference.

Existing novice-friendly machine learning (ML) modeling tools center around a solo user experience, where a single user collects only their own data to build a model. However, solo modeling experiences limit valuable opportunities for encountering alternative ideas and approaches that can arise when learners work together; consequently, it often precludes encountering critical issues in ML around data representation and diversity that can surface when different perspectives are manifested in a group-constructed data set. To address this issue, we created Co-ML -- a tablet-based app for learners to collaboratively build ML image classifiers through an end-to-end, iterative model-building process. In this paper, we illustrate the feasibility and potential richness of collaborative modeling by presenting an in-depth case study of a family (two children 11 and 14-years-old working with their parents) using Co-ML in a facilitated introductory ML activity at home. We share the Co-ML system design and contribute a discussion of how using Co-ML in a collaborative activity enabled beginners to collectively engage with dataset design considerations underrepresented in prior work such as data diversity, class imbalance, and data quality. We discuss how a distributed collaborative process, in which individuals can take on different model-building responsibilities, provides a rich context for children and adults to learn ML dataset design.

The ability to reliably predict the future quality of a wireless channel, as seen by the media access control layer, is a key enabler to improve performance of future industrial networks that do not rely on wires. Knowing in advance how much channel behavior may change can speed up procedures for adaptively selecting the best channel, making the network more deterministic, reliable, and less energy-hungry, possibly improving device roaming capabilities at the same time. To this aim, popular approaches based on moving averages and regression were compared, using multiple key performance indicators, on data captured from a real Wi-Fi setup. Moreover, a simple technique based on a linear combination of outcomes from different techniques was presented and analyzed, to further reduce the prediction error, and some considerations about lower bounds on achievable errors have been reported. We found that the best model is the exponential moving average, which managed to predict the frame delivery ratio with a 2.10\% average error and, at the same time, has lower computational complexity and memory consumption than the other models we analyzed.

Although the variational autoencoder (VAE) and its conditional extension (CVAE) are capable of state-of-the-art results across multiple domains, their precise behavior is still not fully understood, particularly in the context of data (like images) that lie on or near a low-dimensional manifold. For example, while prior work has suggested that the globally optimal VAE solution can learn the correct manifold dimension, a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for producing samples from the true data distribution, this has never been rigorously proven. Moreover, it remains unclear how such considerations would change when various types of conditioning variables are introduced, or when the data support is extended to a union of manifolds (e.g., as is likely the case for MNIST digits and related). In this work, we address these points by first proving that VAE global minima are indeed capable of recovering the correct manifold dimension. We then extend this result to more general CVAEs, demonstrating practical scenarios whereby the conditioning variables allow the model to adaptively learn manifolds of varying dimension across samples. Our analyses, which have practical implications for various CVAE design choices, are also supported by numerical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Recently, contrastive learning (CL) has emerged as a successful method for unsupervised graph representation learning. Most graph CL methods first perform stochastic augmentation on the input graph to obtain two graph views and maximize the agreement of representations in the two views. Despite the prosperous development of graph CL methods, the design of graph augmentation schemes -- a crucial component in CL -- remains rarely explored. We argue that the data augmentation schemes should preserve intrinsic structures and attributes of graphs, which will force the model to learn representations that are insensitive to perturbation on unimportant nodes and edges. However, most existing methods adopt uniform data augmentation schemes, like uniformly dropping edges and uniformly shuffling features, leading to suboptimal performance. In this paper, we propose a novel graph contrastive representation learning method with adaptive augmentation that incorporates various priors for topological and semantic aspects of the graph. Specifically, on the topology level, we design augmentation schemes based on node centrality measures to highlight important connective structures. On the node attribute level, we corrupt node features by adding more noise to unimportant node features, to enforce the model to recognize underlying semantic information. We perform extensive experiments of node classification on a variety of real-world datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art baselines and even surpasses some supervised counterparts, which validates the effectiveness of the proposed contrastive framework with adaptive augmentation.