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Six time series related to atmospheric phenomena are used as inputs for experiments offorecasting with singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Existing methods for SSA parametersselection are compared throughout their forecasting accuracy relatively to an optimal aposteriori selection and to a naive forecasting methods. The comparison shows that awidespread practice of selecting longer windows leads often to poorer predictions. It alsoconfirms that the choices of the window length and of the grouping are essential. Withthe mean error of rainfall forecasting below 1.5%, SSA appears as a viable alternative forhorizons beyond two weeks.

Discovering a suitable neural network architecture for modeling complex dynamical systems poses a formidable challenge, often involving extensive trial and error and navigation through a high-dimensional hyper-parameter space. In this paper, we discuss a systematic approach to constructing neural architectures for modeling a subclass of dynamical systems, namely, Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems. We use a variant of continuous-time neural networks in which the output of each neuron evolves continuously as a solution of a first-order or second-order Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE). Instead of deriving the network architecture and parameters from data, we propose a gradient-free algorithm to compute sparse architecture and network parameters directly from the given LTI system, leveraging its properties. We bring forth a novel neural architecture paradigm featuring horizontal hidden layers and provide insights into why employing conventional neural architectures with vertical hidden layers may not be favorable. We also provide an upper bound on the numerical errors of our neural networks. Finally, we demonstrate the high accuracy of our constructed networks on three numerical examples.

Deep generative models aim to learn the underlying distribution of data and generate new ones. Despite the diversity of generative models and their high-quality generation performance in practice, most of them lack rigorous theoretical convergence proofs. In this work, we aim to establish some convergence results for OT-Flow, one of the deep generative models. First, by reformulating the framework of OT-Flow model, we establish the $\Gamma$-convergence of the formulation of OT-flow to the corresponding optimal transport (OT) problem as the regularization term parameter $\alpha$ goes to infinity. Second, since the loss function will be approximated by Monte Carlo method in training, we established the convergence between the discrete loss function and the continuous one when the sample number $N$ goes to infinity as well. Meanwhile, the approximation capability of the neural network provides an upper bound for the discrete loss function of the minimizers. The proofs in both aspects provide convincing assurances for OT-Flow.

We propose a method for obtaining parsimonious decompositions of networks into higher order interactions which can take the form of arbitrary motifs.The method is based on a class of analytically solvable generative models, where vertices are connected via explicit copies of motifs, which in combination with non-parametric priors allow us to infer higher order interactions from dyadic graph data without any prior knowledge on the types or frequencies of such interactions. Crucially, we also consider 'degree--corrected' models that correctly reflect the degree distribution of the network and consequently prove to be a better fit for many real world--networks compared to non-degree corrected models. We test the presented approach on simulated data for which we recover the set of underlying higher order interactions to a high degree of accuracy. For empirical networks the method identifies concise sets of atomic subgraphs from within thousands of candidates that cover a large fraction of edges and include higher order interactions of known structural and functional significance. The method not only produces an explicit higher order representation of the network but also a fit of the network to analytically tractable models opening new avenues for the systematic study of higher order network structures.

Dynamical systems across the sciences, from electrical circuits to ecological networks, undergo qualitative and often catastrophic changes in behavior, called bifurcations, when their underlying parameters cross a threshold. Existing methods predict oncoming catastrophes in individual systems but are primarily time-series-based and struggle both to categorize qualitative dynamical regimes across diverse systems and to generalize to real data. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven, physically-informed deep-learning framework for classifying dynamical regimes and characterizing bifurcation boundaries based on the extraction of topologically invariant features. We focus on the paradigmatic case of the supercritical Hopf bifurcation, which is used to model periodic dynamics across a wide range of applications. Our convolutional attention method is trained with data augmentations that encourage the learning of topological invariants which can be used to detect bifurcation boundaries in unseen systems and to design models of biological systems like oscillatory gene regulatory networks. We further demonstrate our method's use in analyzing real data by recovering distinct proliferation and differentiation dynamics along pancreatic endocrinogenesis trajectory in gene expression space based on single-cell data. Our method provides valuable insights into the qualitative, long-term behavior of a wide range of dynamical systems, and can detect bifurcations or catastrophic transitions in large-scale physical and biological systems.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) represent one of the most widely used neural network architectures, showcasing state-of-the-art performance in computer vision tasks. Although larger CNNs generally exhibit higher accuracy, their size can be effectively reduced by "tensorization" while maintaining accuracy. Tensorization consists of replacing the convolution kernels with compact decompositions such as Tucker, Canonical Polyadic decompositions, or quantum-inspired decompositions such as matrix product states, and directly training the factors in the decompositions to bias the learning towards low-rank decompositions. But why doesn't tensorization seem to impact the accuracy adversely? We explore this by assessing how truncating the convolution kernels of dense (untensorized) CNNs impact their accuracy. Specifically, we truncated the kernels of (i) a vanilla four-layer CNN and (ii) ResNet-50 pre-trained for image classification on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets. We found that kernels (especially those inside deeper layers) could often be truncated along several cuts resulting in significant loss in kernel norm but not in classification accuracy. This suggests that such ``correlation compression'' (underlying tensorization) is an intrinsic feature of how information is encoded in dense CNNs. We also found that aggressively truncated models could often recover the pre-truncation accuracy after only a few epochs of re-training, suggesting that compressing the internal correlations of convolution layers does not often transport the model to a worse minimum. Our results can be applied to tensorize and compress CNN models more effectively.

Electrohydrodynamics is a discipline that studies the interaction between fluid motion and electric field. Finite element method, finite difference method and other numerical simulations are effective numerical calculation methods for electrofluid dynamics models. In this paper, the finite element format of the electrofluid dynamics model is established, and the second-order convergence accuracy of the format is achieved through time filtering method. Finally, a numerical example is given to verify the convergence.

This article presents MuMFiM, an open source application for multiscale modeling of fibrous materials on massively parallel computers. MuMFiM uses two scales to represent fibrous materials such as biological network materials (extracellular matrix, connective tissue, etc.). It is designed to make use of multiple levels of parallelism, including distributed parallelism of the macro and microscales as well as GPU accelerated data-parallelism of the microscale. Scaling results of the GPU accelerated microscale show that solving microscale problems concurrently on the GPU can lead to a 1000x speedup over the solution of a single RVE on the GPU. In addition, we show nearly optimal strong and weak scaling results of MuMFiM on up to 128 nodes of AiMOS (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute) which is composed of IBM AC922 nodes with 6 Volta V100 GPU and 2 20 core Power 9 CPUs each. We also show how MuMFiM can be used to solve problems of interest to the broader engineering community, in particular providing an example of the facet capsule ligament (FCL) of the human spine undergoing uniaxial extension.

In Coevolving Latent Space Networks with Attractors (CLSNA) models, nodes in a latent space represent social actors, and edges indicate their dynamic interactions. Attractors are added at the latent level to capture the notion of attractive and repulsive forces between nodes, borrowing from dynamical systems theory. However, CLSNA reliance on MCMC estimation makes scaling difficult, and the requirement for nodes to be present throughout the study period limit practical applications. We address these issues by (i) introducing a Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) parameter estimation method, (ii) developing a novel approach for uncertainty quantification using SGD, and (iii) extending the model to allow nodes to join and leave over time. Simulation results show that our extensions result in little loss of accuracy compared to MCMC, but can scale to much larger networks. We apply our approach to the longitudinal social networks of members of US Congress on the social media platform X. Accounting for node dynamics overcomes selection bias in the network and uncovers uniquely and increasingly repulsive forces within the Republican Party.