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This paper investigates the best arm identification (BAI) problem in stochastic multi-armed bandits in the fixed confidence setting. The general class of the exponential family of bandits is considered. The state-of-the-art algorithms for the exponential family of bandits face computational challenges. To mitigate these challenges, a novel framework is proposed, which views the BAI problem as sequential hypothesis testing, and is amenable to tractable analysis for the exponential family of bandits. Based on this framework, a BAI algorithm is designed that leverages the canonical sequential probability ratio tests. This algorithm has three features for both settings: (1) its sample complexity is asymptotically optimal, (2) it is guaranteed to be $\delta-$PAC, and (3) it addresses the computational challenge of the state-of-the-art approaches. Specifically, these approaches, which are focused only on the Gaussian setting, require Thompson sampling from the arm that is deemed the best and a challenger arm. This paper analytically shows that identifying the challenger is computationally expensive and that the proposed algorithm circumvents it. Finally, numerical experiments are provided to support the analysis.

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Studying the properties of stochastic noise to optimize complex non-convex functions has been an active area of research in the field of machine learning. Prior work has shown that the noise of stochastic gradient descent improves optimization by overcoming undesirable obstacles in the landscape. Moreover, injecting artificial Gaussian noise has become a popular idea to quickly escape saddle points. Indeed, in the absence of reliable gradient information, the noise is used to explore the landscape, but it is unclear what type of noise is optimal in terms of exploration ability. In order to narrow this gap in our knowledge, we study a general type of continuous-time non-Markovian process, based on fractional Brownian motion, that allows for the increments of the process to be correlated. This generalizes processes based on Brownian motion, such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We demonstrate how to discretize such processes which gives rise to the new algorithm fPGD. This method is a generalization of the known algorithms PGD and Anti-PGD. We study the properties of fPGD both theoretically and empirically, demonstrating that it possesses exploration abilities that, in some cases, are favorable over PGD and Anti-PGD. These results open the field to novel ways to exploit noise for training machine learning models.

Bundle Adjustment (BA) refers to the problem of simultaneous determination of sensor poses and scene geometry, which is a fundamental problem in robot vision. This paper presents an efficient and consistent bundle adjustment method for lidar sensors. The method employs edge and plane features to represent the scene geometry, and directly minimizes the natural Euclidean distance from each raw point to the respective geometry feature. A nice property of this formulation is that the geometry features can be analytically solved, drastically reducing the dimension of the numerical optimization. To represent and solve the resultant optimization problem more efficiently, this paper then proposes a novel concept {\it point clusters}, which encodes all raw points associated to the same feature by a compact set of parameters, the {\it point cluster coordinates}. We derive the closed-form derivatives, up to the second order, of the BA optimization based on the point cluster coordinates and show their theoretical properties such as the null spaces and sparsity. Based on these theoretical results, this paper develops an efficient second-order BA solver. Besides estimating the lidar poses, the solver also exploits the second order information to estimate the pose uncertainty caused by measurement noises, leading to consistent estimates of lidar poses. Moreover, thanks to the use of point cluster, the developed solver fundamentally avoids the enumeration of each raw point (which is very time-consuming due to the large number) in all steps of the optimization: cost evaluation, derivatives evaluation and uncertainty evaluation. The implementation of our method is open sourced to benefit the robotics community and beyond.

We study a sequential decision problem where the learner faces a sequence of $K$-armed stochastic bandit tasks. An adversary may design the tasks, but the adversary is constrained to choose the optimal arm of each task in a smaller (but unknown) subset of $M$ arms. The task boundaries might be known (the bandit meta-learning setting), or unknown (the non-stationary bandit setting). We design an algorithm based on a reduction to bandit submodular maximization and show that, in the regime of large number of tasks and small number of optimal arms, its regret in both settings is smaller than the simple baseline of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{KNT})$ that can be obtained by using standard algorithms designed for non-stationary bandit problems. For the bandit meta-learning problem with fixed task length $\tau$, we show that the regret of the algorithm is bounded as $\tilde{O}(NM\sqrt{M \tau}+N^{2/3}M\tau)$. Under additional assumptions on the identifiability of the optimal arms in each task, we show a bandit meta-learning algorithm with an improved $\tilde{O}(N\sqrt{M \tau}+N^{1/2}\sqrt{M K \tau})$ regret.

Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur over a broad time interval. We formulate the effects of potentially time-dependent covariates on multi-state processes through semiparametric proportional intensity models with random effects. We adopt nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE) under general interval censoring and develop a stable expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We show that the resulting parameter estimators are consistent and that the finite-dimensional components are asymptotically normal with a covariance matrix that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound and can be consistently estimated through profile likelihood. In addition, we demonstrate through extensive simulation studies that the proposed numerical and inferential procedures perform well in realistic settings. Finally, we provide an application to a major epidemiologic cohort study.

NDCG, namely Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain, is a widely used ranking metric in information retrieval and machine learning. However, efficient and provable stochastic methods for maximizing NDCG are still lacking, especially for deep models. In this paper, we propose a principled approach to optimize NDCG and its top-$K$ variant. First, we formulate a novel compositional optimization problem for optimizing the NDCG surrogate, and a novel bilevel compositional optimization problem for optimizing the top-$K$ NDCG surrogate. Then, we develop efficient stochastic algorithms with provable convergence guarantees for the non-convex objectives. Different from existing NDCG optimization methods, the per-iteration complexity of our algorithms scales with the mini-batch size instead of the number of total items. To improve the effectiveness for deep learning, we further propose practical strategies by using initial warm-up and stop gradient operator. Experimental results on multiple datasets demonstrate that our methods outperform prior ranking approaches in terms of NDCG. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that stochastic algorithms are proposed to optimize NDCG with a provable convergence guarantee. Our proposed methods are implemented in the LibAUC library at //libauc.org/.

Classical results in general equilibrium theory assume divisible goods and convex preferences of market participants. In many real-world markets, participants have non-convex preferences and the allocation problem needs to consider complex constraints. Electricity markets are a prime example. In such markets, Walrasian prices are impossible, and heuristic pricing rules based on the dual of the relaxed allocation problem are used in practice. However, these rules have been criticized for high side-payments and inadequate congestion signals. We show that existing pricing heuristics optimize specific design goals that can be conflicting. The trade-offs can be substantial, and we establish that the design of pricing rules is fundamentally a multi-objective optimization problem addressing different incentives. In addition to traditional multi-objective optimization techniques using weighing of individual objectives, we introduce a novel parameter-free pricing rule that minimizes incentives for market participants to deviate locally. Our findings show how the new pricing rule capitalizes on the upsides of existing pricing rules under scrutiny today. It leads to prices that incur low make-whole payments while providing adequate congestion signals and low lost opportunity costs. Our suggested pricing rule does not require weighing of objectives, it is computationally scalable, and balances trade-offs in a principled manner, addressing an important policy issue in electricity markets.

Stochastic kriging has been widely employed for simulation metamodeling to predict the response surface of complex simulation models. However, its use is limited to cases where the design space is low-dimensional because, in general, the sample complexity (i.e., the number of design points required for stochastic kriging to produce an accurate prediction) grows exponentially in the dimensionality of the design space. The large sample size results in both a prohibitive sample cost for running the simulation model and a severe computational challenge due to the need to invert large covariance matrices. Based on tensor Markov kernels and sparse grid experimental designs, we develop a novel methodology that dramatically alleviates the curse of dimensionality. We show that the sample complexity of the proposed methodology grows only slightly in the dimensionality, even under model misspecification. We also develop fast algorithms that compute stochastic kriging in its exact form without any approximation schemes. We demonstrate via extensive numerical experiments that our methodology can handle problems with a design space of more than 10,000 dimensions, improving both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency by orders of magnitude relative to typical alternative methods in practice.

We study best-arm identification with a fixed budget and contextual (covariate) information in stochastic multi-armed bandit problems. In each round, after observing contextual information, we choose a treatment arm using past observations and current context. Our goal is to identify the best treatment arm, a treatment arm with the maximal expected reward marginalized over the contextual distribution, with a minimal probability of misidentification. First, we derive semiparametric lower bounds for this problem, where we regard the gaps between the expected rewards of the best and suboptimal treatment arms as parameters of interest, and all other parameters, such as the expected rewards conditioned on contexts, as the nuisance parameters. We then develop the "Contextual RS-AIPW strategy," which consists of the random sampling (RS) rule tracking a target allocation ratio and the recommendation rule using the augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimator. Our proposed Contextual RS-AIPW strategy is optimal because the upper bound for the probability of misidentification matches the semiparametric lower bound when the budget goes to infinity, and the gaps converge to zero.

In decision-making problems such as the multi-armed bandit, an agent learns sequentially by optimizing a certain feedback. While the mean reward criterion has been extensively studied, other measures that reflect an aversion to adverse outcomes, such as mean-variance or conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), can be of interest for critical applications (healthcare, agriculture). Algorithms have been proposed for such risk-aware measures under bandit feedback without contextual information. In this work, we study contextual bandits where such risk measures can be elicited as linear functions of the contexts through the minimization of a convex loss. A typical example that fits within this framework is the expectile measure, which is obtained as the solution of an asymmetric least-square problem. Using the method of mixtures for supermartingales, we derive confidence sequences for the estimation of such risk measures. We then propose an optimistic UCB algorithm to learn optimal risk-aware actions, with regret guarantees similar to those of generalized linear bandits. This approach requires solving a convex problem at each round of the algorithm, which we can relax by allowing only approximated solution obtained by online gradient descent, at the cost of slightly higher regret. We conclude by evaluating the resulting algorithms on numerical experiments.

This paper concerns the mechanism design for online resource allocation in a strategic setting. In this setting, a single supplier allocates capacity-limited resources to requests that arrive in a sequential and arbitrary manner. Each request is associated with an agent who may act selfishly to misreport the requirement and valuation of her request. The supplier charges payment from agents whose requests are satisfied, but incurs a load-dependent supply cost. The goal is to design an incentive compatible online mechanism, which determines not only the resource allocation of each request, but also the payment of each agent, so as to (approximately) maximize the social welfare (i.e., aggregate valuations minus supply cost). We study this problem under the framework of competitive analysis. The major contribution of this paper is the development of a unified approach that achieves the best-possible competitive ratios for setups with different supply costs. Specifically, we show that when there is no supply cost or the supply cost function is linear, our model is essentially a standard 0-1 knapsack problem, for which our approach achieves logarithmic competitive ratios that match the state-of-the-art (which is optimal). For the more challenging setup when the supply cost is strictly-convex, we provide online mechanisms, for the first time, that lead to the optimal competitive ratios as well. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach that unifies the characterization of optimal competitive ratios in online resource allocation for different setups including zero, linear and strictly-convex supply costs.

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