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GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 are the two most widely used large language model (LLM) services. However, when and how these models are updated over time is opaque. Here, we evaluate the March 2023 and June 2023 versions of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 on several diverse tasks: 1) math problems, 2) sensitive/dangerous questions, 3) opinion surveys, 4) multi-hop knowledge-intensive questions, 5) generating code, 6) US Medical License tests, and 7) visual reasoning. We find that the performance and behavior of both GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 can vary greatly over time. For example, GPT-4 (March 2023) was reasonable at identifying prime vs. composite numbers (84% accuracy) but GPT-4 (June 2023) was poor on these same questions (51% accuracy). This is partly explained by a drop in GPT-4's amenity to follow chain-of-thought prompting. Interestingly, GPT-3.5 was much better in June than in March in this task. GPT-4 became less willing to answer sensitive questions and opinion survey questions in June than in March. GPT-4 performed better at multi-hop questions in June than in March, while GPT-3.5's performance dropped on this task. Both GPT-4 and GPT-3.5 had more formatting mistakes in code generation in June than in March. Overall, our findings show that the behavior of the "same" LLM service can change substantially in a relatively short amount of time, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring of LLMs.

Stock and flow diagrams are widely used in epidemiology to model the dynamics of populations. Although tools already exist for building these diagrams and simulating the systems they describe, we have created a new package called StockFlow, part of the AlgebraicJulia ecosystem, which uses ideas from category theory to overcome notable limitations of existing software. Compositionality is provided by the theory of decorated cospans: stock and flow diagrams can be composed to form larger ones in an intuitive way formalized by the operad of undirected wiring diagrams. Our approach also cleanly separates the syntax of stock and flow diagrams from the semantics they can be assigned. We consider semantics in ordinary differential equations, although others are possible. As an example, we explain code in StockFlow that implements a simplified version of a COVID-19 model used in Canada.

Two-sample multiple testing problems of sparse spatial data are frequently arising in a variety of scientific applications. In this article, we develop a novel neighborhood-assisted and posterior-adjusted (NAPA) approach to incorporate both the spatial smoothness and sparsity type side information to improve the power of the test while controlling the false discovery of multiple testing. We translate the side information into a set of weights to adjust the $p$-values, where the spatial pattern is encoded by the ordering of the locations, and the sparsity structure is encoded by a set of auxiliary covariates. We establish the theoretical properties of the proposed test, including the guaranteed power improvement over some state-of-the-art alternative tests, and the asymptotic false discovery control. We demonstrate the efficacy of the test through intensive simulations and two neuroimaging applications.

For the performance modeling of power converters, the mainstream approaches are essentially knowledge-based, suffering from heavy manpower burden and low modeling accuracy. Recent emerging data-driven techniques greatly relieve human reliance by automatic modeling from simulation data. However, model discrepancy may occur due to unmodeled parasitics, deficient thermal and magnetic models, unpredictable ambient conditions, etc. These inaccurate data-driven models based on pure simulation cannot represent the practical performance in physical world, hindering their applications in power converter modeling. To alleviate model discrepancy and improve accuracy in practice, this paper proposes a novel data-driven modeling with experimental augmentation (D2EA), leveraging both simulation data and experimental data. In D2EA, simulation data aims to establish basic functional landscape, and experimental data focuses on matching actual performance in real world. The D2EA approach is instantiated for the efficiency optimization of a hybrid modulation for neutral-point-clamped dual-active-bridge (NPC-DAB) converter. The proposed D2EA approach realizes 99.92% efficiency modeling accuracy, and its feasibility is comprehensively validated in 2-kW hardware experiments, where the peak efficiency of 98.45% is attained. Overall, D2EA is data-light and can achieve highly accurate and highly practical data-driven models in one shot, and it is scalable to other applications, effortlessly.

In modern dialogue systems, the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) has grown exponentially due to their capacity to generate diverse, relevant, and creative responses. Despite their strengths, striking a balance between the LLMs' creativity and their faithfulness to external knowledge remains a key challenge. This paper presents an innovative user-controllable mechanism that modulates the balance between an LLM's imaginative capabilities and its adherence to factual information. Our approach incorporates a numerical tag during the fine-tuning phase of the LLM's training, representing the degree of faithfulness to the reference knowledge in the generated responses. This degree is computed through an automated process that measures lexical overlap using ROUGE scores, semantic similarity using Sentence-BERT embeddings, and an LLM's self-evaluation score. During model inference, users can manipulate this numerical tag, thus controlling the degree of the LLM's reliance on external knowledge. We conduct extensive experiments across various scenarios, demonstrating the adaptability of our method and its efficacy in ensuring the quality and accuracy of the LLM's responses. The results highlight the potential of our approach to enhance the versatility of LLMs while maintaining a balance between creativity and hallucination.

In a well-calibrated risk prediction model, the average predicted probability is close to the true event rate for any given subgroup. Such models are reliable across heterogeneous populations and satisfy strong notions of algorithmic fairness. However, the task of auditing a model for strong calibration is well-known to be difficult -- particularly for machine learning (ML) algorithms -- due to the sheer number of potential subgroups. As such, common practice is to only assess calibration with respect to a few predefined subgroups. Recent developments in goodness-of-fit testing offer potential solutions but are not designed for settings with weak signal or where the poorly calibrated subgroup is small, as they either overly subdivide the data or fail to divide the data at all. We introduce a new testing procedure based on the following insight: if we can reorder observations by their expected residuals, there should be a change in the association between the predicted and observed residuals along this sequence if a poorly calibrated subgroup exists. This lets us reframe the problem of calibration testing into one of changepoint detection, for which powerful methods already exist. We begin with introducing a sample-splitting procedure where a portion of the data is used to train a suite of candidate models for predicting the residual, and the remaining data are used to perform a score-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test. To further improve power, we then extend this adaptive CUSUM test to incorporate cross-validation, while maintaining Type I error control under minimal assumptions. Compared to existing methods, the proposed procedure consistently achieved higher power in simulation studies and more than doubled the power when auditing a mortality risk prediction model.

Financial risk prediction plays a crucial role in the financial sector. Machine learning methods have been widely applied for automatically detecting potential risks and thus saving the cost of labor. However, the development in this field is lagging behind in recent years by the following two facts: 1) the algorithms used are somewhat outdated, especially in the context of the fast advance of generative AI and large language models (LLMs); 2) the lack of a unified and open-sourced financial benchmark has impeded the related research for years. To tackle these issues, we propose FinPT and FinBench: the former is a novel approach for financial risk prediction that conduct Profile Tuning on large pretrained foundation models, and the latter is a set of high-quality datasets on financial risks such as default, fraud, and churn. In FinPT, we fill the financial tabular data into the pre-defined instruction template, obtain natural-language customer profiles by prompting LLMs, and fine-tune large foundation models with the profile text to make predictions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed FinPT by experimenting with a range of representative strong baselines on FinBench. The analytical studies further deepen the understanding of LLMs for financial risk prediction.

Advances in artificial intelligence often stem from the development of new environments that abstract real-world situations into a form where research can be done conveniently. This paper contributes such an environment based on ideas inspired by elementary Microeconomics. Agents learn to produce resources in a spatially complex world, trade them with one another, and consume those that they prefer. We show that the emergent production, consumption, and pricing behaviors respond to environmental conditions in the directions predicted by supply and demand shifts in Microeconomics. We also demonstrate settings where the agents' emergent prices for goods vary over space, reflecting the local abundance of goods. After the price disparities emerge, some agents then discover a niche of transporting goods between regions with different prevailing prices -- a profitable strategy because they can buy goods where they are cheap and sell them where they are expensive. Finally, in a series of ablation experiments, we investigate how choices in the environmental rewards, bartering actions, agent architecture, and ability to consume tradable goods can either aid or inhibit the emergence of this economic behavior. This work is part of the environment development branch of a research program that aims to build human-like artificial general intelligence through multi-agent interactions in simulated societies. By exploring which environment features are needed for the basic phenomena of elementary microeconomics to emerge automatically from learning, we arrive at an environment that differs from those studied in prior multi-agent reinforcement learning work along several dimensions. For example, the model incorporates heterogeneous tastes and physical abilities, and agents negotiate with one another as a grounded form of communication.

Knowledge enhanced pre-trained language models (K-PLMs) are shown to be effective for many public tasks in the literature but few of them have been successfully applied in practice. To address this problem, we propose K-AID, a systematic approach that includes a low-cost knowledge acquisition process for acquiring domain knowledge, an effective knowledge infusion module for improving model performance, and a knowledge distillation component for reducing the model size and deploying K-PLMs on resource-restricted devices (e.g., CPU) for real-world application. Importantly, instead of capturing entity knowledge like the majority of existing K-PLMs, our approach captures relational knowledge, which contributes to better-improving sentence-level text classification and text matching tasks that play a key role in question answering (QA). We conducted a set of experiments on five text classification tasks and three text matching tasks from three domains, namely E-commerce, Government, and Film&TV, and performed online A/B tests in E-commerce. Experimental results show that our approach is able to achieve substantial improvement on sentence-level question answering tasks and bring beneficial business value in industrial settings.

Although measuring held-out accuracy has been the primary approach to evaluate generalization, it often overestimates the performance of NLP models, while alternative approaches for evaluating models either focus on individual tasks or on specific behaviors. Inspired by principles of behavioral testing in software engineering, we introduce CheckList, a task-agnostic methodology for testing NLP models. CheckList includes a matrix of general linguistic capabilities and test types that facilitate comprehensive test ideation, as well as a software tool to generate a large and diverse number of test cases quickly. We illustrate the utility of CheckList with tests for three tasks, identifying critical failures in both commercial and state-of-art models. In a user study, a team responsible for a commercial sentiment analysis model found new and actionable bugs in an extensively tested model. In another user study, NLP practitioners with CheckList created twice as many tests, and found almost three times as many bugs as users without it.