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We consider evolutionary systems, i.e. systems of linear partial differential equations arising from the mathematical physics. For these systems there exists a general solution theory in exponentially weighted spaces which can be exploited in the analysis of numerical methods. The numerical method considered in this paper is a discontinuous Galerkin method in time combined with a conforming Galerkin method in space. Building on our recent paper, we improve some of the results, study the dependence of the numerical solution on the weight-parameter, consider a reformulation and post-processing of its numerical solution. As a by-product we provide error estimates for the dG-C0 method. Numerical simulations support the theoretical findings.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely-used method to estimate the causal relationship between a risk factor and disease. A fundamental part of any MR analysis is to choose appropriate genetic variants as instrumental variables. Genome-wide association studies often reveal that hundreds of genetic variants may be robustly associated with a risk factor, but in some situations investigators may have greater confidence in the instrument validity of only a smaller subset of variants. Nevertheless, the use of additional instruments may be optimal from the perspective of mean squared error even if they are slightly invalid; a small bias in estimation may be a price worth paying for a larger reduction in variance. For this purpose, we consider a method for "focused" instrument selection whereby genetic variants are selected to minimise the estimated asymptotic mean squared error of causal effect estimates. In a setting of many weak and locally invalid instruments, we propose a novel strategy to construct confidence intervals for post-selection focused estimators that guards against the worst case loss in asymptotic coverage. In empirical applications to: (i) validate lipid drug targets; and (ii) investigate vitamin D effects on a wide range of outcomes, our findings suggest that the optimal selection of instruments does not involve only a small number of biologically-justified instruments, but also many potentially invalid instruments.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used for modeling complex interactions between entities represented as vertices of a graph. Despite recent efforts to theoretically analyze the expressive power of GNNs, a formal characterization of their ability to model interactions is lacking. The current paper aims to address this gap. Formalizing strength of interactions through an established measure known as separation rank, we quantify the ability of certain GNNs to model interaction between a given subset of vertices and its complement, i.e. between the sides of a given partition of input vertices. Our results reveal that the ability to model interaction is primarily determined by the partition's walk index -- a graph-theoretical characteristic defined by the number of walks originating from the boundary of the partition. Experiments with common GNN architectures corroborate this finding. As a practical application of our theory, we design an edge sparsification algorithm named Walk Index Sparsification (WIS), which preserves the ability of a GNN to model interactions when input edges are removed. WIS is simple, computationally efficient, and in our experiments has markedly outperformed alternative methods in terms of induced prediction accuracy. More broadly, it showcases the potential of improving GNNs by theoretically analyzing the interactions they can model.

We study the generalization error of statistical learning models in a Federated Learning (FL) setting. Specifically, there are $K$ devices or clients, each holding an independent own dataset of size $n$. Individual models, learned locally via Stochastic Gradient Descent, are aggregated (averaged) by a central server into a global model and then sent back to the devices. We consider multiple (say $R \in \mathbb N^*$) rounds of model aggregation and study the effect of $R$ on the generalization error of the final aggregated model. We establish an upper bound on the generalization error that accounts explicitly for the effect of $R$ (in addition to the number of participating devices $K$ and dataset size $n$). It is observed that, for fixed $(n, K)$, the bound increases with $R$, suggesting that the generalization of such learning algorithms is negatively affected by more frequent communication with the parameter server. Combined with the fact that the empirical risk, however, generally decreases for larger values of $R$, this indicates that $R$ might be a parameter to optimize to reduce the population risk of FL algorithms. The results of this paper, which extend straightforwardly to the heterogeneous data setting, are also illustrated through numerical examples.

Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range dependent non-stationary and nonlinear time series can be well approximated globally by a white-noise-driven auto-regressive (AR) process of slowly diverging order. To our best knowledge, it is the first time such a structural approximation result is established for general classes of non-stationary time series. A high dimensional $\mathcal{L}^2$ test and an associated multiplier bootstrap procedure are proposed for the inference of the AR approximation coefficients. In particular, an adaptive stability test is proposed to check whether the AR approximation coefficients are time-varying, a frequently-encountered question for practitioners and researchers of time series. As an application, globally optimal short-term forecasting theory and methodology for a wide class of locally stationary time series are established via the method of sieves.

This paper considers a formalisation of classical logic using general introduction rules and general elimination rules. It proposes a definition of `maximal formula', `segment' and `maximal segment' suitable to the system, and gives reduction procedures for them. It is then shown that deductions in the system convert into normal form, i.e. deductions that contain neither maximal formulas nor maximal segments, and that deductions in normal form satisfy the subformula property. Tarski's Rule is treated as a general introduction rule for implication. The general introduction rule for negation has a similar form. Maximal formulas with implication or negation as main operator require reduction procedures of a more intricate kind not present in normalisation for intuitionist logic. The Correction added to the end of the paper corrects an error: Theorem 2 is mistaken, and so is a corollary drawn from it as well as a corollary that was concluded by the same mistake. Luckily this does not affect the main result of the paper.

The Koopman operator provides a linear perspective on non-linear dynamics by focusing on the evolution of observables in an invariant subspace. Observables of interest are typically linearly reconstructed from the Koopman eigenfunctions. Despite the broad use of Koopman operators over the past few years, there exist some misconceptions about the applicability of Koopman operators to dynamical systems with more than one fixed point. In this work, an explanation is provided for the mechanism of lifting for the Koopman operator of a dynamical system with multiple attractors. Considering the example of the Duffing oscillator, we show that by exploiting the inherent symmetry between the basins of attraction, a linear reconstruction with three degrees of freedom in the Koopman observable space is sufficient to globally linearize the system.

This paper presents a local energy distribution based hyperparameter determination for stochastic simulated annealing (SSA). SSA is capable of solving combinatorial optimization problems faster than typical simulated annealing (SA), but requires a time-consuming hyperparameter search. The proposed method determines hyperparameters based on the local energy distributions of spins (probabilistic bits). The spin is a basic computing element of SSA and is graphically connected to other spins with its weights. The distribution of the local energy can be estimated based on the central limit theorem (CLT). The CLT-based normal distribution is used to determine the hyperparameters, which reduces the time complexity for hyperparameter search from O(n^3) of the conventional method to O(1). The performance of SSA with the determined hyperparameters is evaluated on the Gset and K2000 benchmarks for maximum-cut problems. The results show that the proposed method achieves mean cut values of approximately 98% of the best-known cut values.

In this paper, we study the finite satisfiability problem for the logic BE under the homogeneity assumption. BE is the cornerstone of Halpern and Shoham's interval temporal logic, and features modal operators corresponding to the prefix (a.k.a. "Begins") and suffix (a.k.a. "Ends") relations on intervals. In terms of complexity, BE lies in between the "Chop logic C", whose satisfiability problem is known to be non-elementary, and the PSPACE-complete interval logic D of the sub-interval (a.k.a. "During") relation. BE was shown to be EXPSPACE-hard, and the only known satisfiability procedure is primitive recursive, but not elementary. Our contribution consists of tightening the complexity bounds of the satisfiability problem for BE, by proving it to be EXPSPACE-complete. We do so by devising an equi-satisfiable normal form with boundedly many nested modalities. The normalization technique resembles Scott's quantifier elimination, but it turns out to be much more involved due to the limitations enforced by the homogeneity assumption.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday conversation and our lives. It is considered as the new electricity that is revolutionizing the world. AI is heavily invested in both industry and academy. However, there is also a lot of hype in the current AI debate. AI based on so-called deep learning has achieved impressive results in many problems, but its limits are already visible. AI has been under research since the 1940s, and the industry has seen many ups and downs due to over-expectations and related disappointments that have followed. The purpose of this book is to give a realistic picture of AI, its history, its potential and limitations. We believe that AI is a helper, not a ruler of humans. We begin by describing what AI is and how it has evolved over the decades. After fundamentals, we explain the importance of massive data for the current mainstream of artificial intelligence. The most common representations for AI, methods, and machine learning are covered. In addition, the main application areas are introduced. Computer vision has been central to the development of AI. The book provides a general introduction to computer vision, and includes an exposure to the results and applications of our own research. Emotions are central to human intelligence, but little use has been made in AI. We present the basics of emotional intelligence and our own research on the topic. We discuss super-intelligence that transcends human understanding, explaining why such achievement seems impossible on the basis of present knowledge,and how AI could be improved. Finally, a summary is made of the current state of AI and what to do in the future. In the appendix, we look at the development of AI education, especially from the perspective of contents at our own university.