A confidence sequence (CS) is a sequence of confidence intervals that is valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. These are useful in applications like A/B testing, multi-armed bandits, off-policy evaluation, election auditing, etc. We present three approaches to constructing a confidence sequence for the population mean, under the minimal assumption that only an upper bound $\sigma^2$ on the variance is known. While previous works rely on light-tail assumptions like boundedness or subGaussianity (under which all moments of a distribution exist), the confidence sequences in our work are able to handle data from a wide range of heavy-tailed distributions. The best among our three methods -- the Catoni-style confidence sequence -- performs remarkably well in practice, essentially matching the state-of-the-art methods for $\sigma^2$-subGaussian data, and provably attains the $\sqrt{\log \log t/t}$ lower bound due to the law of the iterated logarithm. Our findings have important implications for sequential experimentation with unbounded observations, since the $\sigma^2$-bounded-variance assumption is more realistic and easier to verify than $\sigma^2$-subGaussianity (which implies the former). We also extend our methods to data with infinite variance, but having $p$-th central moment ($1<p<2$).
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Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under very weak assumptions, and can often be applied to problems even when nonasymptotic inference is impossible. This paper introduces time-uniform analogues of such asymptotic confidence intervals. To elaborate, our methods take the form of confidence sequences (CS) -- sequences of confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over time. CSs provide valid inference at arbitrary stopping times, incurring no penalties for "peeking" at the data, unlike classical confidence intervals which require the sample size to be fixed in advance. Existing CSs in the literature are nonasymptotic, and hence do not enjoy the aforementioned broad applicability of asymptotic confidence intervals. Our work bridges the gap by giving a definition for "asymptotic CSs", and deriving a universal asymptotic CS that requires only weak CLT-like assumptions. While the CLT approximates the distribution of a sample average by that of a Gaussian at a fixed sample size, we use strong invariance principles (stemming from the seminal 1960s work of Strassen and improvements by Koml\'os, Major, and Tusn\'ady) to uniformly approximate the entire sample average process by an implicit Gaussian process. We demonstrate their utility by deriving nonparametric asymptotic CSs for the average treatment effect based on doubly robust estimators in observational studies, for which no nonasymptotic methods can exist even in the fixed-time regime. This enables causal inference that can be continuously monitored and adaptively stopped.
In this paper, we consider inference in the context of a factor model for tensor-valued time series. We study the consistency of the estimated common factors and loadings space when using estimators based on minimising quadratic loss functions. Building on the observation that such loss functions are adequate only if sufficiently many moments exist, we extend our results to the case of heavy-tailed distributions by considering estimators based on minimising the Huber loss function, which uses an $L_{1}$-norm weight on outliers. We show that such class of estimators is robust to the presence of heavy tails, even when only the second moment of the data exists.
Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.
Endoscopic video recordings are widely used in minimally invasive robot-assisted surgery, but when the endoscope is outside the patient's body, it can capture irrelevant segments that may contain sensitive information. To address this, we propose a framework that accurately detects out-of-body frames in surgical videos by leveraging self-supervision with minimal data labels. We use a massive amount of unlabeled endoscopic images to learn meaningful representations in a self-supervised manner. Our approach, which involves pre-training on an auxiliary task and fine-tuning with limited supervision, outperforms previous methods for detecting out-of-body frames in surgical videos captured from da Vinci X and Xi surgical systems. The average F1 scores range from 96.00 to 98.02. Remarkably, using only 5% of the training labels, our approach still maintains an average F1 score performance above 97, outperforming fully-supervised methods with 95% fewer labels. These results demonstrate the potential of our framework to facilitate the safe handling of surgical video recordings and enhance data privacy protection in minimally invasive surgery.
Gradient regularization, as described in \citet{barrett2021implicit}, is a highly effective technique for promoting flat minima during gradient descent. Empirical evidence suggests that this regularization technique can significantly enhance the robustness of deep learning models against noisy perturbations, while also reducing test error. In this paper, we explore the per-example gradient regularization (PEGR) and present a theoretical analysis that demonstrates its effectiveness in improving both test error and robustness against noise perturbations. Specifically, we adopt a signal-noise data model from \citet{cao2022benign} and show that PEGR can learn signals effectively while suppressing noise. In contrast, standard gradient descent struggles to distinguish the signal from the noise, leading to suboptimal generalization performance. Our analysis reveals that PEGR penalizes the variance of pattern learning, thus effectively suppressing the memorization of noises from the training data. These findings underscore the importance of variance control in deep learning training and offer useful insights for developing more effective training approaches.
We present a novel technique to estimate the 6D pose of objects from single images where the 3D geometry of the object is only given approximately and not as a precise 3D model. To achieve this, we employ a dense 2D-to-3D correspondence predictor that regresses 3D model coordinates for every pixel. In addition to the 3D coordinates, our model also estimates the pixel-wise coordinate error to discard correspondences that are likely wrong. This allows us to generate multiple 6D pose hypotheses of the object, which we then refine iteratively using a highly efficient region-based approach. We also introduce a novel pixel-wise posterior formulation by which we can estimate the probability for each hypothesis and select the most likely one. As we show in experiments, our approach is capable of dealing with extreme visual conditions including overexposure, high contrast, or low signal-to-noise ratio. This makes it a powerful technique for the particularly challenging task of estimating the pose of tumbling satellites for in-orbit robotic applications. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the SPEED+ dataset and has won the SPEC2021 post-mortem competition.
Conventional de-noising methods rely on the assumption that all samples are independent and identically distributed, so the resultant classifier, though disturbed by noise, can still easily identify the noises as the outliers of training distribution. However, the assumption is unrealistic in large-scale data that is inevitably long-tailed. Such imbalanced training data makes a classifier less discriminative for the tail classes, whose previously "easy" noises are now turned into "hard" ones -- they are almost as outliers as the clean tail samples. We introduce this new challenge as Noisy Long-Tailed Classification (NLT). Not surprisingly, we find that most de-noising methods fail to identify the hard noises, resulting in significant performance drop on the three proposed NLT benchmarks: ImageNet-NLT, Animal10-NLT, and Food101-NLT. To this end, we design an iterative noisy learning framework called Hard-to-Easy (H2E). Our bootstrapping philosophy is to first learn a classifier as noise identifier invariant to the class and context distributional changes, reducing "hard" noises to "easy" ones, whose removal further improves the invariance. Experimental results show that our H2E outperforms state-of-the-art de-noising methods and their ablations on long-tailed settings while maintaining a stable performance on the conventional balanced settings. Datasets and codes are available at //github.com/yxymessi/H2E-Framework
Weak supervision overcomes the label bottleneck, enabling efficient development of training sets. Millions of models trained on such datasets have been deployed in the real world and interact with users on a daily basis. However, the techniques that make weak supervision attractive -- such as integrating any source of signal to estimate unknown labels -- also ensure that the pseudolabels it produces are highly biased. Surprisingly, given everyday use and the potential for increased bias, weak supervision has not been studied from the point of view of fairness. This work begins such a study. Our departure point is the observation that even when a fair model can be built from a dataset with access to ground-truth labels, the corresponding dataset labeled via weak supervision can be arbitrarily unfair. Fortunately, not all is lost: we propose and empirically validate a model for source unfairness in weak supervision, then introduce a simple counterfactual fairness-based technique that can mitigate these biases. Theoretically, we show that it is possible for our approach to simultaneously improve both accuracy and fairness metrics -- in contrast to standard fairness approaches that suffer from tradeoffs. Empirically, we show that our technique improves accuracy on weak supervision baselines by as much as 32% while reducing demographic parity gap by 82.5%.
Classic machine learning methods are built on the $i.i.d.$ assumption that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. However, in real scenarios, the $i.i.d.$ assumption can hardly be satisfied, rendering the sharp drop of classic machine learning algorithms' performances under distributional shifts, which indicates the significance of investigating the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem addresses the challenging setting where the testing distribution is unknown and different from the training. This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively discuss the OOD generalization problem, from the definition, methodology, evaluation to the implications and future directions. Firstly, we provide the formal definition of the OOD generalization problem. Secondly, existing methods are categorized into three parts based on their positions in the whole learning pipeline, namely unsupervised representation learning, supervised model learning and optimization, and typical methods for each category are discussed in detail. We then demonstrate the theoretical connections of different categories, and introduce the commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we summarize the whole literature and raise some future directions for OOD generalization problem. The summary of OOD generalization methods reviewed in this survey can be found at //out-of-distribution-generalization.com.
Deep Convolutional Neural Networks have pushed the state-of-the art for semantic segmentation provided that a large amount of images together with pixel-wise annotations is available. Data collection is expensive and a solution to alleviate it is to use transfer learning. This reduces the amount of annotated data required for the network training but it does not get rid of this heavy processing step. We propose a method of transfer learning without annotations on the target task for datasets with redundant content and distinct pixel distributions. Our method takes advantage of the approximate content alignment of the images between two datasets when the approximation error prevents the reuse of annotation from one dataset to another. Given the annotations for only one dataset, we train a first network in a supervised manner. This network autonomously learns to generate deep data representations relevant to the semantic segmentation. Then the images in the new dataset, we train a new network to generate a deep data representation that matches the one from the first network on the previous dataset. The training consists in a regression between feature maps and does not require any annotations on the new dataset. We show that this method reaches performances similar to a classic transfer learning on the PASCAL VOC dataset with synthetic transformations.
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