Much work in the March Madness literature has discussed how to estimate the probability that any one team beats any other team. There has been strikingly little work, however, on what to do with these win probabilities. Hence we pose the multi-brackets problem: given these probabilities, what is the best way to submit a set of $n$ brackets to a March Madness bracket challenge? This is an extremely difficult question, so we begin with a simpler situation. In particular, we compare various sets of $n$ randomly sampled brackets, subject to different entropy ranges or levels of chalkiness (rougly, chalkier brackets feature fewer upsets). We learn three lessons. First, the observed NCAA tournament is a "typical" bracket with a certain "right" amount of entropy (roughly, a "right" amount of upsets), not a chalky bracket. Second, to maximize the expected score of a set of $n$ randomly sampled brackets, we should be successively less chalky as the number of submitted brackets increases. Third, to maximize the probability of winning a bracket challenge against a field of opposing brackets, we should tailor the chalkiness of our brackets to the chalkiness of our opponents' brackets.
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Grasping occluded objects in cluttered environments is an essential component in complex robotic manipulation tasks. In this paper, we introduce an AffordanCE-driven Next-Best-View planning policy (ACE-NBV) that tries to find a feasible grasp for target object via continuously observing scenes from new viewpoints. This policy is motivated by the observation that the grasp affordances of an occluded object can be better-measured under the view when the view-direction are the same as the grasp view. Specifically, our method leverages the paradigm of novel view imagery to predict the grasps affordances under previously unobserved view, and select next observation view based on the highest imagined grasp quality of the target object. The experimental results in simulation and on a real robot demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed affordance-driven next-best-view planning policy. Project page: //sszxc.net/ace-nbv/.
Accurate estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is at the core of personalized decision making. While there is a plethora of models for CATE estimation, model selection is a nontrivial task, due to the fundamental problem of causal inference. Recent empirical work provides evidence in favor of proxy loss metrics with double robust properties and in favor of model ensembling. However, theoretical understanding is lacking. Direct application of prior theoretical work leads to suboptimal oracle model selection rates due to the non-convexity of the model selection problem. We provide regret rates for the major existing CATE ensembling approaches and propose a new CATE model ensembling approach based on Q-aggregation using the doubly robust loss. Our main result shows that causal Q-aggregation achieves statistically optimal oracle model selection regret rates of $\frac{\log(M)}{n}$ (with $M$ models and $n$ samples), with the addition of higher-order estimation error terms related to products of errors in the nuisance functions. Crucially, our regret rate does not require that any of the candidate CATE models be close to the truth. We validate our new method on many semi-synthetic datasets and also provide extensions of our work to CATE model selection with instrumental variables and unobserved confounding.
Offline Imitation Learning (IL) is a powerful paradigm to learn visuomotor skills, especially for high-precision manipulation tasks. However, IL methods are prone to spurious correlation - expressive models may focus on distractors that are irrelevant to action prediction - and are thus fragile in real-world deployment. Prior methods have addressed this challenge by exploring different model architectures and action representations. However, none were able to balance between sample efficiency, robustness against distractors, and solving high-precision manipulation tasks with complex action space. To this end, we present $\textbf{C}$onstrained-$\textbf{C}$ontext $\textbf{C}$onditional $\textbf{D}$iffusion $\textbf{M}$odel (C3DM), a diffusion model policy for solving 6-DoF robotic manipulation tasks with high precision and ability to ignore distractions. A key component of C3DM is a fixation step that helps the action denoiser to focus on task-relevant regions around the predicted action while ignoring distractors in the context. We empirically show that C3DM is able to consistently achieve high success rate on a wide array of tasks, ranging from table top manipulation to industrial kitting, that require varying levels of precision and robustness to distractors. For details, please visit this //sites.google.com/view/c3dm-imitation-learning
Medical segmentation has grown exponentially through the advent of a fully convolutional network (FCN), and we have now reached a turning point through the success of Transformer. However, the different characteristics of the modality have not been fully integrated into Transformer for medical segmentation. In this work, we propose the novel hybrid fusion Transformer (HFTrans) for multisequence MRI image segmentation. We take advantage of the differences among multimodal MRI sequences and utilize the Transformer layers to integrate the features extracted from each modality as well as the features of the early fused modalities. We validate the effectiveness of our hybrid-fusion method in three-dimensional (3D) medical segmentation. Experiments on two public datasets, BraTS2020 and MRBrainS18, show that the proposed method outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods on the task of brain tumor segmentation and brain structure segmentation.
Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on corpora disproportionally weighted in favor of Standard American English. As a result, speakers of other dialects experience significantly more failures when interacting with these technologies. In practice, these speakers often accommodate their speech to be better understood. Our work shares the belief that language technologies should be designed to accommodate the diversity in English dialects and not the other way around. However, prior works on dialect struggle with generalizing to evolving and emerging dialects in a scalable manner. To fill this gap, our method, HyperLoRA, leverages expert linguistic knowledge to enable resource-efficient adaptation via hypernetworks. By disentangling dialect-specific and cross-dialectal information, HyperLoRA improves generalization to unseen dialects in a task-agnostic fashion. Not only is HyperLoRA more scalable in the number of parameters, but it also achieves the best or most competitive performance across 5 dialects in a zero-shot setting. In this way, our approach facilitates access to language technology for billions of English dialect speakers who are traditionally underrepresented.
We describe a class of tasks called decision-oriented dialogues, in which AI assistants must collaborate with one or more humans via natural language to help them make complex decisions. We formalize three domains in which users face everyday decisions: (1) choosing an assignment of reviewers to conference papers, (2) planning a multi-step itinerary in a city, and (3) negotiating travel plans for a group of friends. In each of these settings, AI assistants and users have disparate abilities that they must combine to arrive at the best decision: assistants can access and process large amounts of information, while users have preferences and constraints external to the system. For each task, we build a dialogue environment where agents receive a reward based on the quality of the final decision they reach. Using these environments, we collect human-human dialogues with humans playing the role of assistant. To compare how current AI assistants communicate in these settings, we present baselines using large language models in self-play. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges models face in decision-oriented dialogues, ranging from efficient communication to reasoning and optimization, and release our environments as a testbed for future modeling work.
Graph Neural Networks (GNN) has demonstrated the superior performance in many challenging applications, including the few-shot learning tasks. Despite its powerful capacity to learn and generalize from few samples, GNN usually suffers from severe over-fitting and over-smoothing as the model becomes deep, which limit the model scalability. In this work, we propose a novel Attentive GNN to tackle these challenges, by incorporating a triple-attention mechanism, \ie node self-attention, neighborhood attention, and layer memory attention. We explain why the proposed attentive modules can improve GNN for few-shot learning with theoretical analysis and illustrations. Extensive experiments show that the proposed Attentive GNN outperforms the state-of-the-art GNN-based methods for few-shot learning over the mini-ImageNet and Tiered-ImageNet datasets, with both inductive and transductive settings.
Interest in the field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence has been growing for decades and has accelerated recently. As Artificial Intelligence models have become more complex, and often more opaque, with the incorporation of complex machine learning techniques, explainability has become more critical. Recently, researchers have been investigating and tackling explainability with a user-centric focus, looking for explanations to consider trustworthiness, comprehensibility, explicit provenance, and context-awareness. In this chapter, we leverage our survey of explanation literature in Artificial Intelligence and closely related fields and use these past efforts to generate a set of explanation types that we feel reflect the expanded needs of explanation for today's artificial intelligence applications. We define each type and provide an example question that would motivate the need for this style of explanation. We believe this set of explanation types will help future system designers in their generation and prioritization of requirements and further help generate explanations that are better aligned to users' and situational needs.
Representation learning on a knowledge graph (KG) is to embed entities and relations of a KG into low-dimensional continuous vector spaces. Early KG embedding methods only pay attention to structured information encoded in triples, which would cause limited performance due to the structure sparseness of KGs. Some recent attempts consider paths information to expand the structure of KGs but lack explainability in the process of obtaining the path representations. In this paper, we propose a novel Rule and Path-based Joint Embedding (RPJE) scheme, which takes full advantage of the explainability and accuracy of logic rules, the generalization of KG embedding as well as the supplementary semantic structure of paths. Specifically, logic rules of different lengths (the number of relations in rule body) in the form of Horn clauses are first mined from the KG and elaborately encoded for representation learning. Then, the rules of length 2 are applied to compose paths accurately while the rules of length 1 are explicitly employed to create semantic associations among relations and constrain relation embeddings. Besides, the confidence level of each rule is also considered in optimization to guarantee the availability of applying the rule to representation learning. Extensive experimental results illustrate that RPJE outperforms other state-of-the-art baselines on KG completion task, which also demonstrate the superiority of utilizing logic rules as well as paths for improving the accuracy and explainability of representation learning.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.
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