This paper studies the number of limit cycles that may bifurcate from an equilibrium of an autonomous system of differential equations. The system in question is assumed to be of dimension $n$, have a zero-Hopf equilibrium at the origin, and consist only of homogeneous terms of order $m$. Denote by $H_k(n,m)$ the maximum number of limit cycles of the system that can be detected by using the averaging method of order $k$. We prove that $H_1(n,m)\leq(m-1)\cdot m^{n-2}$ and $H_k(n,m)\leq(km)^{n-1}$ for generic $n\geq3$, $m\geq2$ and $k>1$. The exact numbers of $H_k(n,m)$ or tight bounds on the numbers are determined by computing the mixed volumes of some polynomial systems obtained from the averaged functions. Based on symbolic and algebraic computation, a general and algorithmic approach is proposed to derive sufficient conditions for a given differential system to have a prescribed number of limit cycles. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated by a family of third-order differential equations and by a four-dimensional hyperchaotic differential system.
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Identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data is essential to many real-world applications involving biological data, medical data, and unstructured data such as images and languages. However, this task can be highly challenging, especially when observed variables are generated by causally related latent variables and the relationships are nonlinear. In this work, we investigate the identification problem for nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models in which observed variables are generated by a set of causally related latent variables, and some latent variables may not have observed children. We show that the identifiability of both causal structure and latent variables can be achieved under mild assumptions: on causal structures, we allow for the existence of multiple paths between any pair of variables in the graph, which relaxes latent tree assumptions in prior work; on structural functions, we do not make parametric assumptions, thus permitting general nonlinearity and multi-dimensional continuous variables. Specifically, we first develop a basic identification criterion in the form of novel identifiability guarantees for an elementary latent variable model. Leveraging this criterion, we show that both causal structures and latent variables of the hierarchical model can be identified asymptotically by explicitly constructing an estimation procedure. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to establish identifiability guarantees for both causal structures and latent variables in nonlinear latent hierarchical models.
In this work we propose an extension of physics informed supervised learning strategies to parametric partial differential equations. Indeed, even if the latter are indisputably useful in many applications, they can be computationally expensive most of all in a real-time and many-query setting. Thus, our main goal is to provide a physics informed learning paradigm to simulate parametrized phenomena in a small amount of time. The physics information will be exploited in many ways, in the loss function (standard physics informed neural networks), as an augmented input (extra feature employment) and as a guideline to build an effective structure for the neural network (physics informed architecture). These three aspects, combined together, will lead to a faster training phase and to a more accurate parametric prediction. The methodology has been tested for several equations and also in an optimal control framework.
In this work we propose tailored model order reduction for varying boundary optimal control problems governed by parametric partial differential equations. With varying boundary control, we mean that a specific parameter changes where the boundary control acts on the system. This peculiar formulation might benefit from model order reduction. Indeed, fast and reliable simulations of this model can be of utmost usefulness in many applied fields, such as geophysics and energy engineering. However, varying boundary control features very complicated and diversified parametric behaviour for the state and adjoint variables. The state solution, for example, changing the boundary control parameter, might feature transport phenomena. Moreover, the problem loses its affine structure. It is well known that classical model order reduction techniques fail in this setting, both in accuracy and in efficiency. Thus, we propose reduced approaches inspired by the ones used when dealing with wave-like phenomena. Indeed, we compare standard proper orthogonal decomposition with two tailored strategies: geometric recasting and local proper orthogonal decomposition. Geometric recasting solves the optimization system in a reference domain simplifying the problem at hand avoiding hyper-reduction, while local proper orthogonal decomposition builds local bases to increase the accuracy of the reduced solution in very general settings (where geometric recasting is unfeasible). We compare the various approaches on two different numerical experiments based on geometries of increasing complexity.
Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.
It has been observed by several authors that well-known periodization strategies like tent or Chebychev transforms lead to remarkable results for the recovery of multivariate functions from few samples. So far, theoretical guarantees are missing. The goal of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, we give such guarantees and briefly describe the difficulties of the involved proof. On the other hand, we combine these periodization strategies with recent novel constructive methods for the efficient subsampling of finite frames in $\mathbb{C}$. As a result we are able to reconstruct non-periodic multivariate functions from very few samples. The used sampling nodes are the result of a two-step procedure. Firstly, a random draw with respect to the Chebychev measure provides an initial node set. A further sparsification technique selects a significantly smaller subset of these nodes with equal approximation properties. This set of sampling nodes scales linearly in the dimension of the subspace on which we project and works universally for the whole class of functions. The method is based on principles developed by Batson, Spielman, and Srivastava and can be numerically implemented. Samples on these nodes are then used in a (plain) least-squares sampling recovery step on a suitable hyperbolic cross subspace of functions resulting in a near-optimal behavior of the sampling error. Numerical experiments indicate the applicability of our results.
Hybrid dynamical systems, i.e. systems that have both continuous and discrete states, are ubiquitous in engineering, but are difficult to work with due to their discontinuous transitions. For example, a robot leg is able to exert very little control effort while it is in the air compared to when it is on the ground. When the leg hits the ground, the penetrating velocity instantaneously collapses to zero. These instantaneous changes in dynamics and discontinuities (or jumps) in state make standard smooth tools for planning, estimation, control, and learning difficult for hybrid systems. One of the key tools for accounting for these jumps is called the saltation matrix. The saltation matrix is the sensitivity update when a hybrid jump occurs and has been used in a variety of fields including robotics, power circuits, and computational neuroscience. This paper presents an intuitive derivation of the saltation matrix and discusses what it captures, where it has been used in the past, how it is used for linear and quadratic forms, how it is computed for rigid body systems with unilateral constraints, and some of the structural properties of the saltation matrix in these cases.
We propose an approach to design a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for constrained Linear Time Invariant systems performing an iterative task. The system is subject to an additive disturbance, and the goal is to learn to satisfy state and input constraints robustly. Using disturbance measurements after each iteration, we construct Confidence Support sets, which contain the true support of the disturbance distribution with a given probability. As more data is collected, the Confidence Supports converge to the true support of the disturbance. This enables design of an MPC controller that avoids conservative estimate of the disturbance support, while simultaneously bounding the probability of constraint violation. The efficacy of the proposed approach is then demonstrated with a detailed numerical example.
In this paper, we study the estimation of the derivative of a regression function in a standard univariate regression model. The estimators are defined either by derivating nonparametric least-squares estimators of the regression function or by estimating the projection of the derivative. We prove two simple risk bounds allowing to compare our estimators. More elaborate bounds under a stability assumption are then provided. Bases and spaces on which we can illustrate our assumptions and first results are both of compact or non compact type, and we discuss the rates reached by our estimators. They turn out to be optimal in the compact case. Lastly, we propose a model selection procedure and prove the associated risk bound. To consider bases with a non compact support makes the problem difficult.
The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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