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While solutions of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) problems can sometimes have a higher out-of-sample expected reward than the Sample Average Approximation (SAA), there is no guarantee. In this paper, we introduce the class of Distributionally Optimistic Optimization (DOO) models, and show that it is always possible to "beat" SAA out-of-sample if we consider not just worst-case (DRO) models but also best-case (DOO) ones. We also show, however, that this comes at a cost: Optimistic solutions are more sensitive to model error than either worst-case or SAA optimizers, and hence are less robust.

Information technology system (ITS), informally, is a set of workstations, servers, laptops, installed software, databases, LANs, firewalls, etc. Nowadays, every company has an ITS, but rarely is information about it available outside the company that owns it. However, there are many situations where the availability of such data would be beneficial. For example, cyber ranges emulate IT systems and need their description. Machine learning, and in particular the use of ML to automate attack and defense, would also benefit from descriptions of ITSs. In this paper, we describe a system we call the Generator, that as inputs takes requirements such as the number of employees and the vertical to which the company belongs, and produces as output a model of an ITS that satisfies the given requirements. A very important property that we have put special emphasis on is that the generated ITS looks like a model of a real system to anyone who analyzes it. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to have attempted to build something like this. We validate the Generator by generating an ITS model for a fictional financial institution, and analyze its performance with respect to the problem size. The conducted experiments show that our approach is feasible. In the future, we intend to extend this prototype to allow probabilistic generation of IT systems when only a subset of parameters is explicitly defined.

In this paper we introduce a simple modal logic framework to reason about the expertise of an information source. In the framework, a source is an expert on a proposition $p$ if they are able to correctly determine the truth value of $p$ in any possible world. We also consider how information may be false, but true after accounting for the lack of expertise of the source. This is relevant for modelling situations in which information sources make claims beyond their domain of expertise. We use non-standard semantics for the language based on an expertise set with certain closure properties. It turns out there is a close connection between our semantics and S5 epistemic logic, so that expertise can be expressed in terms of knowledge at all possible states. We use this connection to obtain a sound and complete axiomatisation.

Fuel optimization of diesel and petrol vehicles within industrial fleets is critical for mitigating costs and reducing emissions. This objective is achievable by acting on fuel-related factors, such as the driving behaviour style. In this study, we developed an Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) model to predict fuel consumption of different types of industrial vehicles, using real-world data collected from 2020 to 2021. This Machine Learning model also explains the relationship between the input factors and fuel consumption, quantifying the individual contribution of each one of them. The explanations provided by the model are compared with domain knowledge in order to see if they are aligned. The results show that the 70% of the categories associated to the fuel-factors are similar to the previous literature. With the EBM algorithm, we estimate that optimizing driving behaviour decreases fuel consumption between 12% and 15% in a large fleet (more than 1000 vehicles).

Transparency is a fundamental requirement for decision making systems when these should be deployed in the real world. It is usually achieved by providing explanations of the system's behavior. A prominent and intuitive type of explanations are counterfactual explanations. Counterfactual explanations explain a behavior to the user by proposing actions -- as changes to the input -- that would cause a different (specified) behavior of the system. However, such explanation methods can be unstable with respect to small changes to the input -- i.e. even a small change in the input can lead to huge or arbitrary changes in the output and of the explanation. This could be problematic for counterfactual explanations, as two similar individuals might get very different explanations. Even worse, if the recommended actions differ considerably in their complexity, one would consider such unstable (counterfactual) explanations as individually unfair. In this work, we formally and empirically study the robustness of counterfactual explanations in general, as well as under different models and different kinds of perturbations. Furthermore, we propose that plausible counterfactual explanations can be used instead of closest counterfactual explanations to improve the robustness and consequently the individual fairness of counterfactual explanations.

Complex, high-dimensional data is used in a wide range of domains to explore problems and make decisions. Analysis of high-dimensional data, however, is vulnerable to the hidden influence of confounding variables, especially as users apply ad hoc filtering operations to visualize only specific subsets of an entire dataset. Thus, visual data-driven analysis can mislead users and encourage mistaken assumptions about causality or the strength of relationships between features. This work introduces a novel visual approach designed to reveal the presence of confounding variables via counterfactual possibilities during visual data analysis. It is implemented in CoFact, an interactive visualization prototype that determines and visualizes \textit{counterfactual subsets} to better support user exploration of feature relationships. Using publicly available datasets, we conducted a controlled user study to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach; the results indicate that users exposed to counterfactual visualizations formed more careful judgments about feature-to-outcome relationships.

Existing work in counterfactual Learning to Rank (LTR) has focussed on optimizing feature-based models that predict the optimal ranking based on document features. LTR methods based on bandit algorithms often optimize tabular models that memorize the optimal ranking per query. These types of model have their own advantages and disadvantages. Feature-based models provide very robust performance across many queries, including those previously unseen, however, the available features often limit the rankings the model can predict. In contrast, tabular models can converge on any possible ranking through memorization. However, memorization is extremely prone to noise, which makes tabular models reliable only when large numbers of user interactions are available. Can we develop a robust counterfactual LTR method that pursues memorization-based optimization whenever it is safe to do? We introduce the Generalization and Specialization (GENSPEC) algorithm, a robust feature-based counterfactual LTR method that pursues per-query memorization when it is safe to do so. GENSPEC optimizes a single feature-based model for generalization: robust performance across all queries, and many tabular models for specialization: each optimized for high performance on a single query. GENSPEC uses novel relative high-confidence bounds to choose which model to deploy per query. By doing so, GENSPEC enjoys the high performance of successfully specialized tabular models with the robustness of a generalized feature-based model. Our results show that GENSPEC leads to optimal performance on queries with sufficient click data, while having robust behavior on queries with little or noisy data.

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine-learning-based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently-proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.

Interest in the field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence has been growing for decades and has accelerated recently. As Artificial Intelligence models have become more complex, and often more opaque, with the incorporation of complex machine learning techniques, explainability has become more critical. Recently, researchers have been investigating and tackling explainability with a user-centric focus, looking for explanations to consider trustworthiness, comprehensibility, explicit provenance, and context-awareness. In this chapter, we leverage our survey of explanation literature in Artificial Intelligence and closely related fields and use these past efforts to generate a set of explanation types that we feel reflect the expanded needs of explanation for today's artificial intelligence applications. We define each type and provide an example question that would motivate the need for this style of explanation. We believe this set of explanation types will help future system designers in their generation and prioritization of requirements and further help generate explanations that are better aligned to users' and situational needs.

Modern communication networks have become very complicated and highly dynamic, which makes them hard to model, predict and control. In this paper, we develop a novel experience-driven approach that can learn to well control a communication network from its own experience rather than an accurate mathematical model, just as a human learns a new skill (such as driving, swimming, etc). Specifically, we, for the first time, propose to leverage emerging Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for enabling model-free control in communication networks; and present a novel and highly effective DRL-based control framework, DRL-TE, for a fundamental networking problem: Traffic Engineering (TE). The proposed framework maximizes a widely-used utility function by jointly learning network environment and its dynamics, and making decisions under the guidance of powerful Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). We propose two new techniques, TE-aware exploration and actor-critic-based prioritized experience replay, to optimize the general DRL framework particularly for TE. To validate and evaluate the proposed framework, we implemented it in ns-3, and tested it comprehensively with both representative and randomly generated network topologies. Extensive packet-level simulation results show that 1) compared to several widely-used baseline methods, DRL-TE significantly reduces end-to-end delay and consistently improves the network utility, while offering better or comparable throughput; 2) DRL-TE is robust to network changes; and 3) DRL-TE consistently outperforms a state-ofthe-art DRL method (for continuous control), Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), which, however, does not offer satisfying performance.