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The multi allocation p-hub median problem (MApHM), the multi allocation uncapacitated hub location problem (MAuHLP) and the multi allocation p-hub location problem (MApHLP) are common hub location problems with several practical applications. HLPs aim to construct a network for routing tasks between different locations. Specifically, a set of hubs must be chosen and each routing must be performed using one or two hubs as stopovers. The costs between two hubs are discounted. The objective is to minimize the total transportation cost in the MApHM and additionally to minimize the set-up costs for the hubs in the MAuHLP and MApHLP. In this paper, an approximation algorithm to solve these problems is developed, which improves the approximation bound for MApHM to 3.451, for MAuHLP to 2.173 and for MApHLP to 4.552 when combined with the algorithm of Benedito & Pedrosa. The proposed algorithm is capable of solving much bigger instances than any exact algorithm in the literature. New benchmark instances have been created and published for evaluation, such that HLP algorithms can be tested and compared on huge instances. The proposed algorithm performs on most instances better than the algorithm of Benedito & Pedrosa, which was the only known approximation algorithm for these problems by now.

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for inferring posterior distributions encoded by probabilistic programs featuring possibly unbounded looping behaviors. Our method is built on an extended denotational semantics represented by probability generating functions, which resolves semantic intricacies induced by intertwining discrete probabilistic loops with conditioning (for encoding posterior observations). We implement our method in a tool called Prodigy; it augments existing computer algebra systems with the theory of generating functions for the (semi-)automatic inference and quantitative verification of conditioned probabilistic programs. Experimental results show that Prodigy can handle various infinite-state loopy programs and outperforms state-of-the-art exact inference tools over benchmarks of loop-free programs.

We introduce a physics-driven deep latent variable model (PDDLVM) to learn simultaneously parameter-to-solution (forward) and solution-to-parameter (inverse) maps of parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). Our formulation leverages conventional PDE discretization techniques, deep neural networks, probabilistic modelling, and variational inference to assemble a fully probabilistic coherent framework. In the posited probabilistic model, both the forward and inverse maps are approximated as Gaussian distributions with a mean and covariance parameterized by deep neural networks. The PDE residual is assumed to be an observed random vector of value zero, hence we model it as a random vector with a zero mean and a user-prescribed covariance. The model is trained by maximizing the probability, that is the evidence or marginal likelihood, of observing a residual of zero by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Consequently, the proposed methodology does not require any independent PDE solves and is physics-informed at training time, allowing the real-time solution of PDE forward and inverse problems after training. The proposed framework can be easily extended to seamlessly integrate observed data to solve inverse problems and to build generative models. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of our method on finite element discretized parametric PDE problems such as linear and nonlinear Poisson problems, elastic shells with complex 3D geometries, and time-dependent nonlinear and inhomogeneous PDEs using a physics-informed neural network (PINN) discretization. We achieve up to three orders of magnitude speed-up after training compared to traditional finite element method (FEM), while outputting coherent uncertainty estimates.

For predictive modeling relying on Bayesian inversion, fully independent, or ``mean-field'', Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions in variational inference since the number of variational parameters is twice the number of unknown model parameters. The resulting diagonal covariance structure coupled with unimodal behavior can be too restrictive when dealing with highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors in the form of Gaussian mixtures can capture any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy while maintaining some analytical tractability. Variational inference with Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. Coupled with the existence of multiple local minima due to nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference, these challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with an optimization stage in model parameter space in which local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace method. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. Robustness and scalability are demonstrated using synthetic tests. The methodology is applied to an inversion problem in structural dynamics involving unknown viscous damping coefficients.

Studies of issues related to computability and computational complexity involve the use of a model of computation. Pivotal to such a model are the computational processes considered. Processes of this kind can be described using an imperative process algebra based on ACP (Algebra of Communicating Processes). In this paper, it is investigated whether the imperative process algebra concerned can play a role in the field of models of computation.It is demonstrated that the process algebra is suitable to describe in a mathematically precise way models of computation corresponding to existing models based on sequential, asynchronous parallel, and synchronous parallel random access machines as well as time and work complexity measures for those models. A probabilistic variant of the model based on sequential random access machines and complexity measures for it are also described.

We propose a general framework for obtaining probabilistic solutions to PDE-based inverse problems. Bayesian methods are attractive for uncertainty quantification but assume knowledge of the likelihood model or data generation process. This assumption is difficult to justify in many inverse problems, where the specification of the data generation process is not obvious. We adopt a Gibbs posterior framework that directly posits a regularized variational problem on the space of probability distributions of the parameter. We propose a novel model comparison framework that evaluates the optimality of a given loss based on its ''predictive performance''. We provide cross-validation procedures to calibrate the regularization parameter of the variational objective and compare multiple loss functions. Some novel theoretical properties of Gibbs posteriors are also presented. We illustrate the utility of our framework via a simulated example, motivated by dispersion-based wave models used to characterize arterial vessels in ultrasound vibrometry.

Gaussian Process Networks (GPNs) are a class of directed graphical models which employ Gaussian processes as priors for the conditional expectation of each variable given its parents in the network. The model allows describing continuous joint distributions in a compact but flexible manner with minimal parametric assumptions on the dependencies between variables. Bayesian structure learning of GPNs requires computing the posterior over graphs of the network and is computationally infeasible even in low dimensions. This work implements Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to sample from the posterior distribution of network structures. As such, the approach follows the Bayesian paradigm, comparing models via their marginal likelihood and computing the posterior probability of the GPN features. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in recovering the graphical structure of the network and provides an accurate approximation of its posterior distribution.

In this article, we propose a reduced basis method for parametrized non-symmetric eigenvalue problems arising in the loading pattern optimization of a nuclear core in neutronics. To this end, we derive a posteriori error estimates for the eigenvalue and left and right eigenvectors. The practical computation of these estimators requires the estimation of a constant called prefactor, which we can express as the spectral norm of some operator. We provide some elements of theoretical analysis which illustrate the link between the expression of the prefactor we obtain here and its well-known expression in the case of symmetric eigenvalue problems, either using the notion of numerical range of the operator, or via a perturbative analysis. Lastly, we propose a practical method in order to estimate this prefactor which yields interesting numerical results on actual test cases. We provide detailed numerical simulations on two-dimensional examples including a multigroup neutron diffusion equation.

The recently introduced independent fluctuating two-ray (IFTR) fading model, consisting of two specular components fluctuating independently plus a diffuse component, has proven to provide an excellent fit to different wireless environments, including the millimeter-wave band. However, the original formulations of the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of this model are not applicable to all possible values of its defining parameters, and are given in terms of multifold generalized hypergeometric functions, which prevents their widespread use for the derivation of performance metric expressions. In this paper we present a new formulation of the IFTR model as a countable mixture of Gamma distributions which greatly facilitates the performance evaluation for this model in terms of the metrics already known for the much simpler and widely used Nakagami-m fading. Additionally, a closed-form expression is presented for the generalized moment generating function (GMGF), which permits to readily obtain all the moments of the distribution of the model, as well as several relevant performance metrics. Based on these new derivations, the IFTR model is evaluated for the average channel capacity, the outage probability with and without co-channel interference, and the bit error rate (BER), which are verified by Monte Carlo simulations.

The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the model's complexity and can also be viewed as the number of existing subpopulations. Despite its relevance, little research has been devoted to its estimation. Focusing on the univariate setting, we propose a novel approach targeting prediction accuracy inspired by some overlooked aspects of the problem. We argue for the need for structure in the solutions, the subjective and uncertain nature of modes, and the convenience of a holistic view blending global and local density properties. Our method builds upon a combination of flexible kernel estimators and parsimonious compositional splines. Feature exploration, model selection and mode testing are implemented in the Bayesian inference paradigm, providing soft solutions and allowing to incorporate expert judgement in the process. The usefulness of our proposal is illustrated through a case study in sports analytics, showcasing multiple companion visualisation tools. A thorough simulation study demonstrates that traditional modality-driven approaches paradoxically struggle to provide accurate results. In this context, our method emerges as a top-tier alternative offering innovative solutions for analysts.