This work presents a Bayesian approach for the estimation of Beta Autoregressive Moving Average ($\beta$ARMA) models. We discuss standard choice for the prior distributions and employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior. We propose a method to approach the problem of unit roots in the model's systematic component. We then present a series of Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of this Bayesian approach. In addition to parameter estimation, we evaluate the proposed approach to verify the presence of unit roots in the model's systematic component and study prior sensitivity. An empirical application is presented to exemplify the usefulness of the method. In the application, we compare the fitted Bayesian and frequentist approaches in terms of their out-of-sample forecasting capabilities.
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Neural temporal point processes(TPPs) have shown promise for modeling continuous-time event sequences. However, capturing the interactions between events is challenging yet critical for performing inference tasks like forecasting on event sequence data. Existing TPP models have focused on parameterizing the conditional distribution of future events but struggle to model event interactions. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages Neural Relational Inference (NRI) to learn a relation graph that infers interactions while simultaneously learning the dynamics patterns from observational data. Our approach, the Contrastive Relational Inference-based Hawkes Process (CRIHP), reasons about event interactions under a variational inference framework. It utilizes intensity-based learning to search for prototype paths to contrast relationship constraints. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in capturing event interactions for event sequence modeling tasks.
Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive results in code generation. However, existing decoding strategies are designed for Natural Language (NL) generation, overlooking the differences between NL and programming languages (PL). Due to this oversight, a better decoding strategy for code generation remains an open question. In this paper, we conduct the first systematic study to explore a decoding strategy specialized in code generation. With an analysis of loss distributions of code tokens, we find that code tokens can be divided into two categories: challenging tokens that are difficult to predict and confident tokens that can be easily inferred. Among them, the challenging tokens mainly appear at the beginning of a code block. Inspired by the above findings, we propose a simple yet effective method: Adaptive Temperature (AdapT) sampling, which dynamically adjusts the temperature coefficient when decoding different tokens. We apply a larger temperature when sampling for challenging tokens, allowing LLMs to explore diverse choices. We employ a smaller temperature for confident tokens avoiding the influence of tail randomness noises. We apply AdapT sampling to LLMs with different sizes and conduct evaluations on two popular datasets. Results show that AdapT sampling significantly outperforms state-of-the-art decoding strategy.
This paper introduces BWSNet, a model that can be trained from raw human judgements obtained through a Best-Worst scaling (BWS) experiment. It maps sound samples into an embedded space that represents the perception of a studied attribute. To this end, we propose a set of cost functions and constraints, interpreting trial-wise ordinal relations as distance comparisons in a metric learning task. We tested our proposal on data from two BWS studies investigating the perception of speech social attitudes and timbral qualities. For both datasets, our results show that the structure of the latent space is faithful to human judgements.
Most deep noise suppression (DNS) models are trained with reference-based losses requiring access to clean speech. However, sometimes an additive microphone model is insufficient for real-world applications. Accordingly, ways to use real training data in supervised learning for DNS models promise to reduce a potential training/inference mismatch. Employing real data for DNS training requires either generative approaches or a reference-free loss without access to the corresponding clean speech. In this work, we propose to employ an end-to-end non-intrusive deep neural network (DNN), named PESQ-DNN, to estimate perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ) scores of enhanced real data. It provides a reference-free perceptual loss for employing real data during DNS training, maximizing the PESQ scores. Furthermore, we use an epoch-wise alternating training protocol, updating the DNS model on real data, followed by PESQ-DNN updating on synthetic data. The DNS model trained with the PESQ-DNN employing real data outperforms all reference methods employing only synthetic training data. On synthetic test data, our proposed method excels the Interspeech 2021 DNS Challenge baseline by a significant 0.32 PESQ points. Both on synthetic and real test data, the proposed method beats the baseline by 0.05 DNSMOS points - although PESQ-DNN optimizes for a different perceptual metric.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in multiple software engineering tasks including code generation, code summarisation, test generation and code repair. Fault localisation is essential for facilitating automatic program debugging and repair, and is demonstrated as a highlight at ChatGPT-4's launch event. Nevertheless, there has been little work understanding LLMs' capabilities for fault localisation in large-scale open-source programs. To fill this gap, this paper presents an in-depth investigation into the capability of ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4, the two state-of-the-art LLMs, on fault localisation. Using the widely-adopted Defects4J dataset, we compare the two LLMs with the existing fault localisation techniques. We also investigate the stability and explanation of LLMs in fault localisation, as well as how prompt engineering and the length of code context affect the fault localisation effectiveness. Our findings demonstrate that within a limited code context, ChatGPT-4 outperforms all the existing fault localisation methods. Additional error logs can further improve ChatGPT models' localisation accuracy and stability, with an average 46.9% higher accuracy over the state-of-the-art baseline SmartFL in terms of TOP-1 metric. However, performance declines dramatically when the code context expands to the class-level, with ChatGPT models' effectiveness becoming inferior to the existing methods overall. Additionally, we observe that ChatGPT's explainability is unsatisfactory, with an accuracy rate of only approximately 30%. These observations demonstrate that while ChatGPT can achieve effective fault localisation performance under certain conditions, evident limitations exist. Further research is imperative to fully harness the potential of LLMs like ChatGPT for practical fault localisation applications.
Explaining opaque Machine Learning (ML) models is an increasingly relevant problem. Current explanation in AI (XAI) methods suffer several shortcomings, among others an insufficient incorporation of background knowledge, and a lack of abstraction and interactivity with the user. We propose REASONX, an explanation method based on Constraint Logic Programming (CLP). REASONX can provide declarative, interactive explanations for decision trees, which can be the ML models under analysis or global/local surrogate models of any black-box model. Users can express background or common sense knowledge using linear constraints and MILP optimization over features of factual and contrastive instances, and interact with the answer constraints at different levels of abstraction through constraint projection. We present here the architecture of REASONX, which consists of a Python layer, closer to the user, and a CLP layer. REASONX's core execution engine is a Prolog meta-program with declarative semantics in terms of logic theories.
A Markov decision process can be parameterized by a transition kernel and a reward function. Both play essential roles in the study of reinforcement learning as evidenced by their presence in the Bellman equations. In our inquiry of various kinds of "costs" associated with reinforcement learning inspired by the demands in robotic applications, rewards are central to understanding the structure of a Markov decision process and reward-centric notions can elucidate important concepts in reinforcement learning. Specifically, we study the sample complexity of policy evaluation and develop a novel estimator with an instance-specific error bound of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{\frac{\tau_s}{n}})$ for estimating a single state value. Under the online regret minimization setting, we refine the transition-based MDP constant, diameter, into a reward-based constant, maximum expected hitting cost, and with it, provide a theoretical explanation for how a well-known technique, potential-based reward shaping, could accelerate learning with expert knowledge. In an attempt to study safe reinforcement learning, we model hazardous environments with irrecoverability and proposed a quantitative notion of safe learning via reset efficiency. In this setting, we modify a classic algorithm to account for resets achieving promising preliminary numerical results. Lastly, for MDPs with multiple reward functions, we develop a planning algorithm that computationally efficiently finds Pareto-optimal stochastic policies.
Existing knowledge graph (KG) embedding models have primarily focused on static KGs. However, real-world KGs do not remain static, but rather evolve and grow in tandem with the development of KG applications. Consequently, new facts and previously unseen entities and relations continually emerge, necessitating an embedding model that can quickly learn and transfer new knowledge through growth. Motivated by this, we delve into an expanding field of KG embedding in this paper, i.e., lifelong KG embedding. We consider knowledge transfer and retention of the learning on growing snapshots of a KG without having to learn embeddings from scratch. The proposed model includes a masked KG autoencoder for embedding learning and update, with an embedding transfer strategy to inject the learned knowledge into the new entity and relation embeddings, and an embedding regularization method to avoid catastrophic forgetting. To investigate the impacts of different aspects of KG growth, we construct four datasets to evaluate the performance of lifelong KG embedding. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art inductive and lifelong embedding baselines.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently been used for node and graph classification tasks with great success, but GNNs model dependencies among the attributes of nearby neighboring nodes rather than dependencies among observed node labels. In this work, we consider the task of inductive node classification using GNNs in supervised and semi-supervised settings, with the goal of incorporating label dependencies. Because current GNNs are not universal (i.e., most-expressive) graph representations, we propose a general collective learning approach to increase the representation power of any existing GNN. Our framework combines ideas from collective classification with self-supervised learning, and uses a Monte Carlo approach to sampling embeddings for inductive learning across graphs. We evaluate performance on five real-world network datasets and demonstrate consistent, significant improvement in node classification accuracy, for a variety of state-of-the-art GNNs.
We investigate a lattice-structured LSTM model for Chinese NER, which encodes a sequence of input characters as well as all potential words that match a lexicon. Compared with character-based methods, our model explicitly leverages word and word sequence information. Compared with word-based methods, lattice LSTM does not suffer from segmentation errors. Gated recurrent cells allow our model to choose the most relevant characters and words from a sentence for better NER results. Experiments on various datasets show that lattice LSTM outperforms both word-based and character-based LSTM baselines, achieving the best results.
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