Familywise error rate (FWER) has been a cornerstone in simultaneous inference for decades, and the classical Bonferroni method has been one of the most prominent frequentist approaches for controlling FWER. The present article studies the behavior of the FWER for Bonferroni procedure in a multiple testing problem. We establish upper bounds on FWER for Bonferroni method under the equicorrelated and general normal setups in nonasymptotic case.
We present a technique to study normalizing strategies when termination is asymptotic, that is, it appears as a limit, as opposite to reaching a normal form in a finite number of steps. Asymptotic termination occurs in several settings, such as effectful, and in particular probabilistic computation -- where the limits are distributions over the possible outputs -- or infinitary lambda-calculi -- where the limits are infinitary normal forms such as Boehm trees. As a concrete application, we obtain a result which is of independent interest: a normalization theorem for Call-by-Value (and -- in a uniform way -- for Call-by-Name) probabilistic lambda-calculus.
We extend the Deep Galerkin Method (DGM) introduced in Sirignano and Spiliopoulos (2018)} to solve a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that arise in the context of optimal stochastic control and mean field games. First, we consider PDEs where the function is constrained to be positive and integrate to unity, as is the case with Fokker-Planck equations. Our approach involves reparameterizing the solution as the exponential of a neural network appropriately normalized to ensure both requirements are satisfied. This then gives rise to nonlinear a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) where the integral appearing in the equation is handled by a novel application of importance sampling. Secondly, we tackle a number of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations that appear in stochastic optimal control problems. The key contribution is that these equations are approached in their unsimplified primal form which includes an optimization problem as part of the equation. We extend the DGM algorithm to solve for the value function and the optimal control \simultaneously by characterizing both as deep neural networks. Training the networks is performed by taking alternating stochastic gradient descent steps for the two functions, a technique inspired by the policy improvement algorithms (PIA).
The naive importance sampling (IS) estimator generally does not work well in examples involving simultaneous inference on several targets, as the importance weights can take arbitrarily large values, making the estimator highly unstable. In such situations, alternative multiple IS estimators involving samples from multiple proposal distributions are preferred. Just like the naive IS, the success of these multiple IS estimators crucially depends on the choice of the proposal distributions. The selection of these proposal distributions is the focus of this article. We propose three methods: (i) a geometric space filling approach, (ii) a minimax variance approach, and (iii) a maximum entropy approach. The first two methods are applicable to any IS estimator, whereas the third approach is described in the context of Doss's (2010) two-stage IS estimator. For the first method, we propose a suitable measure of 'closeness' based on the symmetric Kullback-Leibler divergence, while the second and third approaches use estimates of asymptotic variances of Doss's (2010) IS estimator and Geyer's (1994) reverse logistic regression estimator, respectively. Thus, when samples from the proposal distributions are obtained by running Markov chains, we provide consistent spectral variance estimators for these asymptotic variances. The proposed methods for selecting proposal densities are illustrated using various detailed examples.
Momentum methods, including heavy-ball~(HB) and Nesterov's accelerated gradient~(NAG), are widely used in training neural networks for their fast convergence. However, there is a lack of theoretical guarantees for their convergence and acceleration since the optimization landscape of the neural network is non-convex. Nowadays, some works make progress towards understanding the convergence of momentum methods in an over-parameterized regime, where the number of the parameters exceeds that of the training instances. Nonetheless, current results mainly focus on the two-layer neural network, which are far from explaining the remarkable success of the momentum methods in training deep neural networks. Motivated by this, we investigate the convergence of NAG with constant learning rate and momentum parameter in training two architectures of deep linear networks: deep fully-connected linear neural networks and deep linear ResNets. Based on the over-parameterization regime, we first analyze the residual dynamics induced by the training trajectory of NAG for a deep fully-connected linear neural network under the random Gaussian initialization. Our results show that NAG can converge to the global minimum at a $(1 - \mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{\kappa}))^t$ rate, where $t$ is the iteration number and $\kappa > 1$ is a constant depending on the condition number of the feature matrix. Compared to the $(1 - \mathcal{O}(1/{\kappa}))^t$ rate of GD, NAG achieves an acceleration over GD. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theoretical guarantee for the convergence of NAG to the global minimum in training deep neural networks. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to deep linear ResNets and derive a similar convergence result.
In this article we suggest two discretization methods based on isogeometric analysis (IGA) for planar linear elasticity. On the one hand, we apply the well-known ansatz of weakly imposed symmetry for the stress tensor and obtain a well-posed mixed formulation. Such modified mixed problems have been already studied by different authors. But we concentrate on the exploitation of IGA results to handle also curved boundary geometries. On the other hand, we consider the more complicated situation of strong symmetry, i.e. we discretize the mixed weak form determined by the so-called Hellinger-Reissner variational principle. We show the existence of suitable approximate fields leading to an inf-sup stable saddle-point problem. For both discretization approaches we prove convergence statements and in case of weak symmetry we illustrate the approximation behavior by means of several numerical experiments.
When researchers carry out a null hypothesis significance test, it is tempting to assume that a statistically significant result lowers Prob(H0), the probability of the null hypothesis being true. Technically, such a statement is meaningless for various reasons: e.g., the null hypothesis does not have a probability associated with it. However, it is possible to relax certain assumptions to compute the posterior probability Prob(H0) under repeated sampling. We show in a step-by-step guide that the intuitively appealing belief, that Prob(H0) is low when significant results have been obtained under repeated sampling, is in general incorrect and depends greatly on: (a) the prior probability of the null being true; (b) type-I error rate, (c) type-II error rate, and (d) replication of a result. Through step-by-step simulations using open-source code in the R System of Statistical Computing, we show that uncertainty about the null hypothesis being true often remains high despite a significant result. To help the reader develop intuitions about this common misconception, we provide a Shiny app (//danielschad.shinyapps.io/probnull/). We expect that this tutorial will help researchers better understand and judge results from null hypothesis significance tests.
We present a novel static analysis technique to derive higher moments for program variables for a large class of probabilistic loops with potentially uncountable state spaces. Our approach is fully automatic, meaning it does not rely on externally provided invariants or templates. We employ algebraic techniques based on linear recurrences and introduce program transformations to simplify probabilistic programs while preserving their statistical properties. We develop power reduction techniques to further simplify the polynomial arithmetic of probabilistic programs and define the theory of moment-computable probabilistic loops for which higher moments can precisely be computed. Our work has applications towards recovering probability distributions of random variables and computing tail probabilities. The empirical evaluation of our results demonstrates the applicability of our work on many challenging examples.
We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting directions. Then we give a new information-theoretic proof of a finite version of de Finetti's classical representation theorem for finite-valued random variables. We derive an upper bound on the relative entropy between the distribution of the first $k$ in a sequence of $n$ exchangeable random variables, and an appropriate mixture over product distributions. The mixing measure is characterised as the law of the empirical measure of the original sequence, and de Finetti's result is recovered as a corollary. The proof is nicely motivated by the Gibbs conditioning principle in connection with statistical mechanics, and it follows along an appealing sequence of steps. The technical estimates required for these steps are obtained via the use of a collection of combinatorial tools known within information theory as `the method of types.'
Reinforcement learning is one of the core components in designing an artificial intelligent system emphasizing real-time response. Reinforcement learning influences the system to take actions within an arbitrary environment either having previous knowledge about the environment model or not. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study on Reinforcement Learning focusing on various dimensions including challenges, the recent development of different state-of-the-art techniques, and future directions. The fundamental objective of this paper is to provide a framework for the presentation of available methods of reinforcement learning that is informative enough and simple to follow for the new researchers and academics in this domain considering the latest concerns. First, we illustrated the core techniques of reinforcement learning in an easily understandable and comparable way. Finally, we analyzed and depicted the recent developments in reinforcement learning approaches. My analysis pointed out that most of the models focused on tuning policy values rather than tuning other things in a particular state of reasoning.
Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have recently achieved great success in many visual recognition tasks. However, existing deep neural network models are computationally expensive and memory intensive, hindering their deployment in devices with low memory resources or in applications with strict latency requirements. Therefore, a natural thought is to perform model compression and acceleration in deep networks without significantly decreasing the model performance. During the past few years, tremendous progress has been made in this area. In this paper, we survey the recent advanced techniques for compacting and accelerating CNNs model developed. These techniques are roughly categorized into four schemes: parameter pruning and sharing, low-rank factorization, transferred/compact convolutional filters, and knowledge distillation. Methods of parameter pruning and sharing will be described at the beginning, after that the other techniques will be introduced. For each scheme, we provide insightful analysis regarding the performance, related applications, advantages, and drawbacks etc. Then we will go through a few very recent additional successful methods, for example, dynamic capacity networks and stochastic depths networks. After that, we survey the evaluation matrix, the main datasets used for evaluating the model performance and recent benchmarking efforts. Finally, we conclude this paper, discuss remaining challenges and possible directions on this topic.