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Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT)s are relied upon to assess new treatments, but suffer from limited power to guide personalized treatment decisions. On the other hand, observational (i.e., non-experimental) studies have large and diverse populations, but are prone to various biases (e.g. residual confounding). To safely leverage the strengths of observational studies, we focus on the problem of falsification, whereby RCTs are used to validate causal effect estimates learned from observational data. In particular, we show that, given data from both an RCT and an observational study, assumptions on internal and external validity have an observable, testable implication in the form of a set of Conditional Moment Restrictions (CMRs). Further, we show that expressing these CMRs with respect to the causal effect, or "causal contrast", as opposed to individual counterfactual means, provides a more reliable falsification test. In addition to giving guarantees on the asymptotic properties of our test, we demonstrate superior power and type I error of our approach on semi-synthetic and real world datasets. Our approach is interpretable, allowing a practitioner to visualize which subgroups in the population lead to falsification of an observational study.

Individual-based epidemiological models support the study of fine-grained preventive measures, such as tailored vaccine allocation policies, in silico. As individual-based models are computationally intensive, it is pivotal to identify optimal strategies within a reasonable computational budget. Moreover, due to the high societal impact associated with the implementation of preventive strategies, uncertainty regarding decisions should be communicated to policy makers, which is naturally embedded in a Bayesian approach. We present a novel technique for evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using a multi-armed bandit framework in combination with a Bayesian anytime $m$-top exploration algorithm. $m$-top exploration allows the algorithm to learn $m$ policies for which it expects the highest utility, enabling experts to inspect this small set of alternative strategies, along with their quantified uncertainty. The anytime component provides policy advisors with flexibility regarding the computation time and the desired confidence, which is important as it is difficult to make this trade-off beforehand. We consider the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using the individual-based model STRIDE, where we learn a set of vaccination policies that minimize the number of infections and hospitalisations. Through experiments we show that our method can efficiently identify the $m$-top policies, which is validated in a scenario where the ground truth is available. Finally, we explore how vaccination policies can best be organised under different contact reduction schemes. Through these experiments, we show that the top policies follow a clear trend regarding the prioritised age groups and assigned vaccine type, which provides insights for future vaccination campaigns.

Agent-Based Models are very useful for simulation of physical or social processes, such as the spreading of a pandemic in a city. Such models proceed by specifying the behavior of individuals (agents) and their interactions, and parameterizing the process of infection based on such interactions based on the geography and demography of the city. However, such models are computationally very expensive, and the complexity is often linear in the total number of agents. This seriously limits the usage of such models for simulations, which often have to be run hundreds of times for policy planning and even model parameter estimation. An alternative is to develop an emulator, a surrogate model that can predict the Agent-Based Simulator's output based on its initial conditions and parameters. In this paper, we discuss a Deep Learning model based on Dilated Convolutional Neural Network that can emulate such an agent based model with high accuracy. We show that use of this model instead of the original Agent-Based Model provides us major gains in the speed of simulations, allowing much quicker calibration to observations, and more extensive scenario analysis. The models we consider are spatially explicit, as the locations of the infected individuals are simulated instead of the gross counts. Another aspect of our emulation framework is its divide-and-conquer approach that divides the city into several small overlapping blocks and carries out the emulation in them parallelly, after which these results are merged together. This ensures that the same emulator can work for a city of any size, and also provides significant improvement of time complexity of the emulator, compared to the original simulator.

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled approach for assessing the relative merits of competing computational models and propagating uncertainty into model selection decisions. However, BMC is often intractable for the popular class of hierarchical models due to their high-dimensional nested parameter structure. To address this intractability, we propose a deep learning method for performing BMC on any set of hierarchical models which can be instantiated as probabilistic programs. Since our method enables amortized inference, it allows efficient re-estimation of posterior model probabilities and fast performance validation prior to any real-data application. In a series of extensive validation studies, we benchmark the performance of our method against the state-of-the-art bridge sampling method and demonstrate excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings. We then use our method to compare four hierarchical evidence accumulation models that have previously been deemed intractable for BMC due to partly implicit likelihoods. In this application, we corroborate evidence for the recently proposed L\'evy flight model of decision-making and show how transfer learning can be leveraged to enhance training efficiency. Reproducible code for all analyses is provided.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

The recent literature on online learning to rank (LTR) has established the utility of prior knowledge to Bayesian ranking bandit algorithms. However, a major limitation of existing work is the requirement for the prior used by the algorithm to match the true prior. In this paper, we propose and analyze adaptive algorithms that address this issue and additionally extend these results to the linear and generalized linear models. We also consider scalar relevance feedback on top of click feedback. Moreover, we demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms using both synthetic and real-world experiments.

Learning on big data brings success for artificial intelligence (AI), but the annotation and training costs are expensive. In future, learning on small data is one of the ultimate purposes of AI, which requires machines to recognize objectives and scenarios relying on small data as humans. A series of machine learning models is going on this way such as active learning, few-shot learning, deep clustering. However, there are few theoretical guarantees for their generalization performance. Moreover, most of their settings are passive, that is, the label distribution is explicitly controlled by one specified sampling scenario. This survey follows the agnostic active sampling under a PAC (Probably Approximately Correct) framework to analyze the generalization error and label complexity of learning on small data using a supervised and unsupervised fashion. With these theoretical analyses, we categorize the small data learning models from two geometric perspectives: the Euclidean and non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) mean representation, where their optimization solutions are also presented and discussed. Later, some potential learning scenarios that may benefit from small data learning are then summarized, and their potential learning scenarios are also analyzed. Finally, some challenging applications such as computer vision, natural language processing that may benefit from learning on small data are also surveyed.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved unprecedented success in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), including computer vision, natural language processing and speech recognition. However, their superior performance comes at the considerable cost of computational complexity, which greatly hinders their applications in many resource-constrained devices, such as mobile phones and Internet of Things (IoT) devices. Therefore, methods and techniques that are able to lift the efficiency bottleneck while preserving the high accuracy of DNNs are in great demand in order to enable numerous edge AI applications. This paper provides an overview of efficient deep learning methods, systems and applications. We start from introducing popular model compression methods, including pruning, factorization, quantization as well as compact model design. To reduce the large design cost of these manual solutions, we discuss the AutoML framework for each of them, such as neural architecture search (NAS) and automated pruning and quantization. We then cover efficient on-device training to enable user customization based on the local data on mobile devices. Apart from general acceleration techniques, we also showcase several task-specific accelerations for point cloud, video and natural language processing by exploiting their spatial sparsity and temporal/token redundancy. Finally, to support all these algorithmic advancements, we introduce the efficient deep learning system design from both software and hardware perspectives.

The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.