The individual data collected throughout patient follow-up constitute crucial information for assessing the risk of a clinical event, and eventually for adapting a therapeutic strategy. Joint models and landmark models have been proposed to compute individual dynamic predictions from repeated measures to one or two markers. However, they hardly extend to the case where the complete patient history includes much more repeated markers possibly. Our objective was thus to propose a solution for the dynamic prediction of a health event that may exploit repeated measures of a possibly large number of markers. We combined a landmark approach extended to endogenous markers history with machine learning methods adapted to survival data. Each marker trajectory is modeled using the information collected up to landmark time, and summary variables that best capture the individual trajectories are derived. These summaries and additional covariates are then included in different prediction methods. To handle a possibly large dimensional history, we rely on machine learning methods adapted to survival data, namely regularized regressions and random survival forests, to predict the event from the landmark time, and we show how they can be combined into a superlearner. Then, the performances are evaluated by cross-validation using estimators of Brier Score and the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve adapted to censored data. We demonstrate in a simulation study the benefits of machine learning survival methods over standard survival models, especially in the case of numerous and/or nonlinear relationships between the predictors and the event. We then applied the methodology in two prediction contexts: a clinical context with the prediction of death for patients with primary biliary cholangitis, and a public health context with the prediction of death in the general elderly population at different ages. Our methodology, implemented in R, enables the prediction of an event using the entire longitudinal patient history, even when the number of repeated markers is large. Although introduced with mixed models for the repeated markers and methods for a single right censored time-to-event, our method can be used with any other appropriate modeling technique for the markers and can be easily extended to competing risks setting.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Anomaly detection among a large number of processes arises in many applications ranging from dynamic spectrum access to cybersecurity. In such problems one can often obtain noisy observations aggregated from a chosen subset of processes that conforms to a tree structure. The distribution of these observations, based on which the presence of anomalies is detected, may be only partially known. This gives rise to the need for a search strategy designed to account for both the sample complexity and the detection accuracy, as well as cope with statistical models that are known only up to some missing parameters. In this work we propose a sequential search strategy using two variations of the Generalized Local Likelihood Ratio statistic. Our proposed Hierarchical Dynamic Search (HDS) strategy is shown to be order-optimal with respect to the size of the search space and asymptotically optimal with respect to the detection accuracy. An explicit upper bound on the error probability of HDS is established for the finite sample regime. Extensive experiments are conducted, demonstrating the performance gains of HDS over existing methods.
Human visual attention is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for decades. Within it, the particular problem of scanpath prediction poses a challenge, particularly due to the inter- and intra-observer variability, among other reasons. Besides, most existing approaches to scanpath prediction have focused on optimizing the prediction of a gaze point given the previous ones. In this work, we present a probabilistic time-evolving approach to scanpath prediction, based on Bayesian deep learning. We optimize our model using a novel spatio-temporal loss function based on a combination of Kullback-Leibler divergence and dynamic time warping, jointly considering the spatial and temporal dimensions of scanpaths. Our scanpath prediction framework yields results that outperform those of current state-of-the-art approaches, and are almost on par with the human baseline, suggesting that our model is able to generate scanpaths whose behavior closely resembles those of the real ones.
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular deep latent variable model used to analyse high-dimensional datasets by learning a low-dimensional latent representation of the data. It simultaneously learns a generative model and an inference network to perform approximate posterior inference. Recently proposed extensions to VAEs that can handle temporal and longitudinal data have applications in healthcare, behavioural modelling, and predictive maintenance. However, these extensions do not account for heterogeneous data (i.e., data comprising of continuous and discrete attributes), which is common in many real-life applications. In this work, we propose the heterogeneous longitudinal VAE (HL-VAE) that extends the existing temporal and longitudinal VAEs to heterogeneous data. HL-VAE provides efficient inference for high-dimensional datasets and includes likelihood models for continuous, count, categorical, and ordinal data while accounting for missing observations. We demonstrate our model's efficacy through simulated as well as clinical datasets, and show that our proposed model achieves competitive performance in missing value imputation and predictive accuracy.
Common tasks encountered in epidemiology, including disease incidence estimation and causal inference, rely on predictive modeling. Constructing a predictive model can be thought of as learning a prediction function, i.e., a function that takes as input covariate data and outputs a predicted value. Many strategies for learning these functions from data are available, from parametric regressions to machine learning algorithms. It can be challenging to choose an approach, as it is impossible to know in advance which one is the most suitable for a particular dataset and prediction task at hand. The super learner (SL) is an algorithm that alleviates concerns over selecting the one "right" strategy while providing the freedom to consider many of them, such as those recommended by collaborators, used in related research, or specified by subject-matter experts. It is an entirely pre-specified and data-adaptive strategy for predictive modeling. To ensure the SL is well-specified for learning the prediction function, the analyst does need to make a few important choices. In this Education Corner article, we provide step-by-step guidelines for making these choices, walking the reader through each of them and providing intuition along the way. In doing so, we aim to empower the analyst to tailor the SL specification to their prediction task, thereby ensuring their SL performs as well as possible. A flowchart provides a concise, easy-to-follow summary of key suggestions and heuristics, based on our accumulated experience, and guided by theory.
Applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL), in which agents learn to make a sequence of decisions despite lacking complete information about the latent states of the controlled system, that is, they act under partial observability of the states, are ubiquitous. Partially observable RL can be notoriously difficult -- well-known information-theoretic results show that learning partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) requires an exponential number of samples in the worst case. Yet, this does not rule out the existence of large subclasses of POMDPs over which learning is tractable. In this paper we identify such a subclass, which we call weakly revealing POMDPs. This family rules out the pathological instances of POMDPs where observations are uninformative to a degree that makes learning hard. We prove that for weakly revealing POMDPs, a simple algorithm combining optimism and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is sufficient to guarantee polynomial sample complexity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first provably sample-efficient result for learning from interactions in overcomplete POMDPs, where the number of latent states can be larger than the number of observations.
The accurate diagnosis and molecular profiling of colorectal cancers are critical for planning the best treatment options for patients. Microsatellite instability (MSI) or mismatch repair (MMR) status plays a vital role inappropriate treatment selection, has prognostic implications and is used to investigate the possibility of patients having underlying genetic disorders (Lynch syndrome). NICE recommends that all CRC patients should be offered MMR/microsatellite instability (MSI) testing. Immunohistochemistry is commonly used to assess MMR status with subsequent molecular testing performed as required. This incurs significant extra costs and requires additional resources. The introduction of automated methods that can predict MSI or MMR status from a target image could substantially reduce the cost associated with MMR testing. Unlike previous studies on MSI prediction involving training a CNN using coarse labels (Microsatellite Instable vs Microsatellite Stable), we have utilised fine-grain MMR labels for training purposes. In this paper, we present our work on predicting MSI status in a two-stage process using a single target slide either stained with CK8/18 or H\&E. First, we trained a multi-headed convolutional neural network model where each head was responsible for predicting one of the MMR protein expressions. To this end, we performed the registration of MMR stained slides to the target slide as a pre-processing step. In the second stage, statistical features computed from the MMR prediction maps were used for the final MSI prediction. Our results demonstrated that MSI classification can be improved by incorporating fine-grained MMR labels in comparison to the previous approaches in which only coarse labels were utilised.
Most existing works of polar codes focus on the analysis of block error probability. However, in many scenarios, bit error probability is also important for evaluating the performance of channel codes. In this paper, we establish a new framework to analyze the bit error probability of polar codes. Specifically, by revisiting the error event of bit-channel, we first introduce the conditional bit error probability as a metric to evaluate the reliability of bit-channel for both systematic and non-systematic polar codes. Guided by the concept of polar subcode, we then derive an upper bound on the conditional bit error probability of each bit-channel, and accordingly, an upper bound on the bit error probability of polar codes. Based on these, two types of construction metrics aiming at minimizing the bit error probability of polar codes are proposed, which are of linear computational complexity and explicit forms. Simulation results show that the polar codes constructed by the proposed methods can outperform those constructed by the conventional methods.
The Model Order Reduction (MOR) technique can provide compact numerical models for fast simulation. Different from the intrusive MOR methods, the non-intrusive MOR does not require access to the Full Order Models (FOMs), especially system matrices. Since the non-intrusive MOR methods strongly rely on the snapshots of the FOMs, constructing good snapshot sets becomes crucial. In this work, we propose a new active learning approach with two novelties. A novel idea with our approach is the use of single-time step snapshots from the system states taken from an estimation of the reduced-state space. These states are selected using a greedy strategy supported by an error estimator based Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Additionally, we introduce a use case-independent validation strategy based on Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning. In this work, we use Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to identify the Reduced Order Model (ROM), however the method could be similarly applied to other ROM identification methods. The performance of the whole workflow is tested by a 2-D thermal conduction and a 3-D vacuum furnace model. With little required user interaction and a training strategy independent to a specific use case, the proposed method offers a huge potential for industrial usage to create so-called executable Digital Twins (DTs).
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), which generalize deep neural networks to graph-structured data, have drawn considerable attention and achieved state-of-the-art performance in numerous graph related tasks. However, existing GNN models mainly focus on designing graph convolution operations. The graph pooling (or downsampling) operations, that play an important role in learning hierarchical representations, are usually overlooked. In this paper, we propose a novel graph pooling operator, called Hierarchical Graph Pooling with Structure Learning (HGP-SL), which can be integrated into various graph neural network architectures. HGP-SL incorporates graph pooling and structure learning into a unified module to generate hierarchical representations of graphs. More specifically, the graph pooling operation adaptively selects a subset of nodes to form an induced subgraph for the subsequent layers. To preserve the integrity of graph's topological information, we further introduce a structure learning mechanism to learn a refined graph structure for the pooled graph at each layer. By combining HGP-SL operator with graph neural networks, we perform graph level representation learning with focus on graph classification task. Experimental results on six widely used benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.
We propose a novel approach to multimodal sentiment analysis using deep neural networks combining visual analysis and natural language processing. Our goal is different than the standard sentiment analysis goal of predicting whether a sentence expresses positive or negative sentiment; instead, we aim to infer the latent emotional state of the user. Thus, we focus on predicting the emotion word tags attached by users to their Tumblr posts, treating these as "self-reported emotions." We demonstrate that our multimodal model combining both text and image features outperforms separate models based solely on either images or text. Our model's results are interpretable, automatically yielding sensible word lists associated with emotions. We explore the structure of emotions implied by our model and compare it to what has been posited in the psychology literature, and validate our model on a set of images that have been used in psychology studies. Finally, our work also provides a useful tool for the growing academic study of images - both photographs and memes - on social networks.
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