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Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender should influence beliefs of rational receivers who take decisions through Bayesian updating of a common prior. We focus on the online Bayesian persuasion framework, in which the sender repeatedly faces one or more receivers with unknown and adversarially selected types. First, we show how to obtain a tight $\tilde O(T^{1/2})$ regret bound in the case in which the sender faces a single receiver and has partial feedback, improving over the best previously known bound of $\tilde O(T^{4/5})$. Then, we provide the first no-regret guarantees for the multi-receiver setting under partial feedback. Finally, we show how to design no-regret algorithms with polynomial per-iteration running time by exploiting type reporting, thereby circumventing known intractability results on online Bayesian persuasion. We provide efficient algorithms guaranteeing a $O(T^{1/2})$ regret upper bound both in the single- and multi-receiver scenario when type reporting is allowed.

We study the secretary problem in which rank-ordered lists are generated by the Mallows model and the goal is to identify the highest-ranked candidate through a sequential interview process which does not allow rejected candidates to be revisited. The main difference between our formulation and existing models is that, during the selection process, we are given a fixed number of opportunities to query an infallible expert whether the current candidate is the highest-ranked or not. If the response is positive, the selection process terminates, otherwise, the search continues until a new potentially optimal candidate is identified. Our optimal interview strategy, as well as the expected number of candidates interviewed and the expected number of queries used, can be determined through the evaluation of well-defined recurrence relations. Specifically, if we are allowed to query $s-1$ times and to make a final selection without querying (thus, making $s$ selections in total) then the optimum scheme is characterized by $s$ thresholds that depend on the parameter $\theta$ of the Mallows distribution but are independent on the maximum number of queries.

We present a methodology to automatically compute worst-case performance bounds for a large class of first-order decentralized optimization algorithms. These algorithms aim at minimizing the average of local functions that are distributed across a network of agents. They typically combine local computations and consensus steps. Our methodology is based on the approach of Performance Estimation Problem (PEP), which allows computing the worst-case performance and a worst-case instance of first-order optimization algorithms by solving an SDP. We propose two ways of representing consensus steps in PEPs, which allow writing and solving PEPs for decentralized optimization. The first formulation is exact but specific to a given averaging matrix. The second formulation is a relaxation but provides guarantees valid over an entire class of averaging matrices, characterized by their spectral range. This formulation often allows recovering a posteriori the worst possible averaging matrix for the given algorithm. We apply our methodology to three different decentralized methods. For each of them, we obtain numerically tight worst-case performance bounds that significantly improve on the existing ones, as well as insights about the parameters tuning and the worst communication networks.

The chain graph model admits both undirected and directed edges in one graph, where symmetric conditional dependencies are encoded via undirected edges and asymmetric causal relations are encoded via directed edges. Though frequently encountered in practice, the chain graph model has been largely under investigated in literature, possibly due to the lack of identifiability conditions between undirected and directed edges. In this paper, we first establish a set of novel identifiability conditions for the Gaussian chain graph model, exploiting a low rank plus sparse decomposition of the precision matrix. Further, an efficient learning algorithm is built upon the identifiability conditions to fully recover the chain graph structure. Theoretical analysis on the proposed method is conducted, assuring its asymptotic consistency in recovering the exact chain graph structure. The advantage of the proposed method is also supported by numerical experiments on both simulated examples and a real application on the Standard & Poor 500 index data.

The coordination of actions and the allocation of profit in supply chains under decentralized control play an important role in improving the profits of retailers and suppliers in the chain. We focus on supply chains under decentralized control in which noncompeting retailers can order from multiple suppliers to replenish their stocks. Suppliers' production capacity is bounded. The goal of the firms in the chain is to maximize their individual profits. As the outcome under decentralized control is inefficient, coordination of actions between cooperating agents can improve individual profits. Cooperative game theory is used to analyze cooperation between agents. We define multi-retailer-supplier games and show that agents can always achieve together an optimal profit and they have incentives to cooperate and to form the grand coalition. Moreover, we show that there always exist stable allocations of the total profit among the firms upon which no coalition can improve. Then we propose and characterize a stable allocation of the total surplus induced by cooperation.

A lower bound is an important tool for predicting the performance that an estimator can achieve under a particular statistical model. Bayesian bounds are a kind of such bounds which not only utilizes the observation statistics but also includes the prior model information. In reality, however, the true model generating the data is either unknown or simplified when deriving estimators, which motivates the works to derive estimation bounds under modeling mismatch situations. This paper provides a derivation of a Bayesian Cram\'{e}r-Rao bound under model misspecification, defining important concepts such as pseudotrue parameter that were not clearly identified in previous works. The general result is particularized in linear and Gaussian problems, where closed-forms are available and results are used to validate the results.

For the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise we consider the problem of estimating the diffusivity parameter in front of the Laplace operator. Based on local observations in space, we first study an estimator that was derived for additive noise. A stable central limit theorem shows that this estimator is consistent and asymptotically mixed normal. By taking into account the quadratic variation, we propose two new estimators. Their limiting distributions exhibit a smaller (conditional) variance and the last estimator also works for vanishing noise levels. The proofs are based on local approximation results to overcome the intricate nonlinearities and on a stable central limit theorem for stochastic integrals with respect to cylindrical Brownian motion. Simulation results illustrate the theoretical findings.

Optimization algorithms such as projected Newton's method, FISTA, mirror descent, and its variants enjoy near-optimal regret bounds and convergence rates, but suffer from a computational bottleneck of computing ``projections'' in potentially each iteration (e.g., $O(T^{1/2})$ regret of online mirror descent). On the other hand, conditional gradient variants solve a linear optimization in each iteration, but result in suboptimal rates (e.g., $O(T^{3/4})$ regret of online Frank-Wolfe). Motivated by this trade-off in runtime v/s convergence rates, we consider iterative projections of close-by points over widely-prevalent submodular base polytopes $B(f)$. We first give necessary and sufficient conditions for when two close points project to the same face of a polytope, and then show that points far away from the polytope project onto its vertices with high probability. We next use this theory and develop a toolkit to speed up the computation of iterative projections over submodular polytopes using both discrete and continuous perspectives. We subsequently adapt the away-step Frank-Wolfe algorithm to use this information and enable early termination. For the special case of cardinality-based submodular polytopes, we improve the runtime of computing certain Bregman projections by a factor of $\Omega(n/\log(n))$. Our theoretical results show orders of magnitude reduction in runtime in preliminary computational experiments.

In this article, we construct semiparametrically efficient estimators of linear functionals of a probability measure in the presence of side information using an easy empirical likelihood approach. We use estimated constraint functions and allow the number of constraints to grow with the sample size. Considered are three cases of information which can be characterized by infinitely many constraints: (1) the marginal distributions are known, (2) the marginals are unknown but identical, and (3) distributional symmetry. An improved spatial depth function is defined and its asymptotic properties are studied. Simulation results on efficiency gain are reported.

We adopt an information-theoretic framework to analyze the generalization behavior of the class of iterative, noisy learning algorithms. This class is particularly suitable for study under information-theoretic metrics as the algorithms are inherently randomized, and it includes commonly used algorithms such as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD). Herein, we use the maximal leakage (equivalently, the Sibson mutual information of order infinity) metric, as it is simple to analyze, and it implies both bounds on the probability of having a large generalization error and on its expected value. We show that, if the update function (e.g., gradient) is bounded in $L_2$-norm, then adding isotropic Gaussian noise leads to optimal generalization bounds: indeed, the input and output of the learning algorithm in this case are asymptotically statistically independent. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the assumptions on the update function affect the optimal (in the sense of minimizing the induced maximal leakage) choice of the noise. Finally, we compute explicit tight upper bounds on the induced maximal leakage for several scenarios of interest.