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Recent approaches to causal inference have focused on causal effects defined as contrasts between the distribution of counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions on the nodes of a graphical model. In this article we develop theory for causal effects defined with respect to a different type of intervention, one which alters the information propagated through the edges of the graph. These information transfer interventions may be more useful than node interventions in settings in which causes are non-manipulable, for example when considering race or genetics as a causal agent. Furthermore, information transfer interventions allow us to define path-specific decompositions which are identified in the presence of treatment-induced mediator-outcome confounding, a practical problem whose general solution remains elusive. We prove that the proposed effects provide valid statistical tests of mechanisms, unlike popular methods based on randomized interventions on the mediator. We propose efficient non-parametric estimators for a covariance version of the proposed effects, using data-adaptive regression coupled with semi-parametric efficiency theory to address model misspecification bias while retaining $\sqrt{n}$-consistency and asymptotic normality. We illustrate the use of our methods in two examples using publicly available data.

Noiseless compressive sensing is a protocol that enables undersampling and later recovery of a signal without loss of information. This compression is possible because the signal is usually sufficiently sparse in a given basis. Currently, the algorithm offering the best tradeoff between compression rate, robustness, and speed for compressive sensing is the LASSO (l1-norm bias) algorithm. However, many studies have pointed out the possibility that the implementation of lp-norms biases, with p smaller than one, could give better performance while sacrificing convexity. In this work, we focus specifically on the extreme case of the l0-based reconstruction, a task that is complicated by the discontinuity of the loss. In the first part of the paper, we describe via statistical physics methods, and in particular the replica method, how the solutions to this optimization problem are arranged in a clustered structure. We observe two distinct regimes: one at low compression rate where the signal can be recovered exactly, and one at high compression rate where the signal cannot be recovered accurately. In the second part, we present two message-passing algorithms based on our first results for the l0-norm optimization problem. The proposed algorithms are able to recover the signal at compression rates higher than the ones achieved by LASSO while being computationally efficient.

In many forecasting settings, there is a specific interest in predicting the sign of an outcome variable correctly in addition to its magnitude. For instance, when forecasting armed conflicts, positive and negative log-changes in monthly fatalities represent escalation and de-escalation, respectively, and have very different implications. In the ViEWS forecasting challenge, a prediction competition on state-based violence, a novel evaluation score called targeted absolute deviation with direction augmentation (TADDA) has therefore been suggested, which accounts for both for the sign and magnitude of log-changes. While it has a straightforward intuitive motivation, the empirical results of the challenge show that a no-change model always predicting a log-change of zero outperforms all submitted forecasting models under the TADDA score. We provide a statistical explanation for this phenomenon. Analyzing the properties of TADDA, we find that in order to achieve good scores, forecasters often have an incentive to predict no or only modest log-changes. In particular, there is often an incentive to report conservative point predictions considerably closer to zero than the forecaster's actual predictive median or mean. In an empirical application, we demonstrate that a no-change model can be improved upon by tailoring predictions to the particularities of the TADDA score. We conclude by outlining some alternative scoring concepts.

Obtaining guarantees on the convergence of the minimizers of empirical risks to the ones of the true risk is a fundamental matter in statistical learning. Instead of deriving guarantees on the usual estimation error, the goal of this paper is to provide concentration inequalities on the distance between the sets of minimizers of the risks for a broad spectrum of estimation problems. In particular, the risks are defined on metric spaces through probability measures that are also supported on metric spaces. A particular attention will therefore be given to include unbounded spaces and non-convex cost functions that might also be unbounded. This work identifies a set of assumptions allowing to describe a regime that seem to govern the concentration in many estimation problems, where the empirical minimizers are stable. This stability can then be leveraged to prove parametric concentration rates in probability and in expectation. The assumptions are verified, and the bounds showcased, on a selection of estimation problems such as barycenters on metric space with positive or negative curvature, subspaces of covariance matrices, regression problems and entropic-Wasserstein barycenters.

Byzantine quorum systems provide higher throughput than proofof-work and incur modest energy consumption. Further, their modern incarnations incorporate personalized and heterogeneous trust. Thus, they are emerging as an appealing candidate for global financial infrastructure. However, since their quorums are not uniform across processes anymore, the properties that they should maintain to support abstractions such as reliable broadcast and consensus are not well-understood. In this paper, we first see a general model of heterogeneous quorum systems where each participant can declare its own quorums, and capture their properties. It has been shown that the two properties quorum intersection and availability are necessary. In this paper, we prove that they are not sufficient. We then define the notion of quorum inclusion, and show that the three conditions together are sufficient: we present reliable broadcast and consensus protocols, and prove their correctness for quorum systems that provide the three properties.

Knowledge graphs represent factual knowledge about the world as relationships between concepts and are critical for intelligent decision making in enterprise applications. New knowledge is inferred from the existing facts in the knowledge graphs by encoding the concepts and relations into low-dimensional feature vector representations. The most effective representations for this task, called Knowledge Graph Embeddings (KGE), are learned through neural network architectures. Due to their impressive predictive performance, they are increasingly used in high-impact domains like healthcare, finance and education. However, are the black-box KGE models adversarially robust for use in domains with high stakes? This thesis argues that state-of-the-art KGE models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks, that is, their predictive performance can be degraded by systematically crafted perturbations to the training knowledge graph. To support this argument, two novel data poisoning attacks are proposed that craft input deletions or additions at training time to subvert the learned model's performance at inference time. These adversarial attacks target the task of predicting the missing facts in knowledge graphs using KGE models, and the evaluation shows that the simpler attacks are competitive with or outperform the computationally expensive ones. The thesis contributions not only highlight and provide an opportunity to fix the security vulnerabilities of KGE models, but also help to understand the black-box predictive behaviour of KGE models.

We hypothesize that due to the greedy nature of learning in multi-modal deep neural networks, these models tend to rely on just one modality while under-fitting the other modalities. Such behavior is counter-intuitive and hurts the models' generalization, as we observe empirically. To estimate the model's dependence on each modality, we compute the gain on the accuracy when the model has access to it in addition to another modality. We refer to this gain as the conditional utilization rate. In the experiments, we consistently observe an imbalance in conditional utilization rates between modalities, across multiple tasks and architectures. Since conditional utilization rate cannot be computed efficiently during training, we introduce a proxy for it based on the pace at which the model learns from each modality, which we refer to as the conditional learning speed. We propose an algorithm to balance the conditional learning speeds between modalities during training and demonstrate that it indeed addresses the issue of greedy learning. The proposed algorithm improves the model's generalization on three datasets: Colored MNIST, Princeton ModelNet40, and NVIDIA Dynamic Hand Gesture.

We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.

Detection and recognition of text in natural images are two main problems in the field of computer vision that have a wide variety of applications in analysis of sports videos, autonomous driving, industrial automation, to name a few. They face common challenging problems that are factors in how text is represented and affected by several environmental conditions. The current state-of-the-art scene text detection and/or recognition methods have exploited the witnessed advancement in deep learning architectures and reported a superior accuracy on benchmark datasets when tackling multi-resolution and multi-oriented text. However, there are still several remaining challenges affecting text in the wild images that cause existing methods to underperform due to there models are not able to generalize to unseen data and the insufficient labeled data. Thus, unlike previous surveys in this field, the objectives of this survey are as follows: first, offering the reader not only a review on the recent advancement in scene text detection and recognition, but also presenting the results of conducting extensive experiments using a unified evaluation framework that assesses pre-trained models of the selected methods on challenging cases, and applies the same evaluation criteria on these techniques. Second, identifying several existing challenges for detecting or recognizing text in the wild images, namely, in-plane-rotation, multi-oriented and multi-resolution text, perspective distortion, illumination reflection, partial occlusion, complex fonts, and special characters. Finally, the paper also presents insight into the potential research directions in this field to address some of the mentioned challenges that are still encountering scene text detection and recognition techniques.