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Heart failure (HF) contributes to circa 200,000 annual hospitalizations in France. With the increasing age of HF patients, elucidating the specific causes of inpatient mortality became a public health problematic. We introduce a novel methodological framework designed to identify prevalent health trajectories and investigate their impact on death. The initial step involves applying sequential pattern mining to characterize patients' trajectories, followed by an unsupervised clustering algorithm based on a new metric for measuring the distance between hospitalization diagnoses. Finally, a survival analysis is conducted to assess survival outcomes. The application of this framework to HF patients from a representative sample of the French population demonstrates its methodological significance in enhancing the analysis of healthcare trajectories.

Current deep neural networks (DNNs) are overparameterized and use most of their neuronal connections during inference for each task. The human brain, however, developed specialized regions for different tasks and performs inference with a small fraction of its neuronal connections. We propose an iterative pruning strategy introducing a simple importance-score metric that deactivates unimportant connections, tackling overparameterization in DNNs and modulating the firing patterns. The aim is to find the smallest number of connections that is still capable of solving a given task with comparable accuracy, i.e. a simpler subnetwork. We achieve comparable performance for LeNet architectures on MNIST, and significantly higher parameter compression than state-of-the-art algorithms for VGG and ResNet architectures on CIFAR-10/100 and Tiny-ImageNet. Our approach also performs well for the two different optimizers considered -- Adam and SGD. The algorithm is not designed to minimize FLOPs when considering current hardware and software implementations, although it performs reasonably when compared to the state of the art.

It is well known that the class of rotation invariant algorithms are suboptimal even for learning sparse linear problems when the number of examples is below the "dimension" of the problem. This class includes any gradient descent trained neural net with a fully-connected input layer (initialized with a rotationally symmetric distribution). The simplest sparse problem is learning a single feature out of $d$ features. In that case the classification error or regression loss grows with $1-k/n$ where $k$ is the number of examples seen. These lower bounds become vacuous when the number of examples $k$ reaches the dimension $d$. We show that when noise is added to this sparse linear problem, rotation invariant algorithms are still suboptimal after seeing $d$ or more examples. We prove this via a lower bound for the Bayes optimal algorithm on a rotationally symmetrized problem. We then prove much lower upper bounds on the same problem for simple non-rotation invariant algorithms. Finally we analyze the gradient flow trajectories of many standard optimization algorithms in some simple cases and show how they veer toward or away from the sparse targets. We believe that our trajectory categorization will be useful in designing algorithms that can exploit sparse targets and our method for proving lower bounds will be crucial for analyzing other families of algorithms that admit different classes of invariances.

Covariate adjustment can improve precision in analyzing randomized experiments. With fully observed data, regression adjustment and propensity score weighting are asymptotically equivalent in improving efficiency over unadjusted analysis. When some outcomes are missing, we consider combining these two adjustment methods with inverse probability of observation weighting for handling missing outcomes, and show that the equivalence between the two methods breaks down. Regression adjustment no longer ensures efficiency gain over unadjusted analysis unless the true outcome model is linear in covariates or the outcomes are missing completely at random. Propensity score weighting, in contrast, still guarantees efficiency over unadjusted analysis, and including more covariates in adjustment never harms asymptotic efficiency. Moreover, we establish the value of using partially observed covariates to secure additional efficiency by the missingness indicator method, which imputes all missing covariates by zero and uses the union of the completed covariates and corresponding missingness indicators as the new, fully observed covariates. Based on these findings, we recommend using regression adjustment in combination with the missingness indicator method if the linear outcome model or missing complete at random assumption is plausible and using propensity score weighting with the missingness indicator method otherwise.

Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, there has only been limited discussion of how predominant forecast evaluation metrics might indicate the success of policies based in part on those forecasts. We explore one possible tether between forecasts and policy: the allocation of limited medical resources so as to minimize unmet need. We use probabilistic forecasts of disease burden in each of several regions to determine optimal resource allocations, and then we score forecasts according to how much unmet need their associated allocations would have allowed. We illustrate with forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US, and we find that the forecast skill ranking given by this allocation scoring rule can vary substantially from the ranking given by the weighted interval score. We see this as evidence that the allocation scoring rule detects forecast value that is missed by traditional accuracy measures and that the general strategy of designing scoring rules that are directly linked to policy performance is a promising direction for epidemic forecast evaluation.

We develop new tools to study landscapes in nonconvex optimization. Given one optimization problem, we pair it with another by smoothly parametrizing the domain. This is either for practical purposes (e.g., to use smooth optimization algorithms with good guarantees) or for theoretical purposes (e.g., to reveal that the landscape satisfies a strict saddle property). In both cases, the central question is: how do the landscapes of the two problems relate? More precisely: how do desirable points such as local minima and critical points in one problem relate to those in the other problem? A key finding in this paper is that these relations are often determined by the parametrization itself, and are almost entirely independent of the cost function. Accordingly, we introduce a general framework to study parametrizations by their effect on landscapes. The framework enables us to obtain new guarantees for an array of problems, some of which were previously treated on a case-by-case basis in the literature. Applications include: optimizing low-rank matrices and tensors through factorizations; solving semidefinite programs via the Burer-Monteiro approach; training neural networks by optimizing their weights and biases; and quotienting out symmetries.

Regression methods are fundamental for scientific and technological applications. However, fitted models can be highly unreliable outside of their training domain, and hence the quantification of their uncertainty is crucial in many of their applications. Based on the solution of a constrained optimization problem, we propose "prediction rigidities" as a method to obtain uncertainties of arbitrary pre-trained regressors. We establish a strong connection between our framework and Bayesian inference, and we develop a last-layer approximation that allows the new method to be applied to neural networks. This extension affords cheap uncertainties without any modification to the neural network itself or its training procedure. We show the effectiveness of our method on a wide range of regression tasks, ranging from simple toy models to applications in chemistry and meteorology.

The consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for mixtures of elliptically-symmetric distributions for estimating its population version is shown, where the underlying distribution $P$ is nonparametric and does not necessarily belong to the class of mixtures on which the estimator is based. In a situation where $P$ is a mixture of well enough separated but nonparametric distributions it is shown that the components of the population version of the estimator correspond to the well separated components of $P$. This provides some theoretical justification for the use of such estimators for cluster analysis in case that $P$ has well separated subpopulations even if these subpopulations differ from what the mixture model assumes.

Approximation capability of reservoir systems whose reservoir is a recurrent neural network (RNN) is discussed. In our problem setting, a reservoir system approximates a set of functions just by adjusting its linear readout while the reservoir is fixed. We will show what we call uniform strong universality of a family of RNN reservoir systems for a certain class of functions to be approximated. This means that, for any positive number, we can construct a sufficiently large RNN reservoir system whose approximation error for each function in the class of functions to be approximated is bounded from above by the positive number. Such RNN reservoir systems are constructed via parallel concatenation of RNN reservoirs.

Activation Patching is a method of directly computing causal attributions of behavior to model components. However, applying it exhaustively requires a sweep with cost scaling linearly in the number of model components, which can be prohibitively expensive for SoTA Large Language Models (LLMs). We investigate Attribution Patching (AtP), a fast gradient-based approximation to Activation Patching and find two classes of failure modes of AtP which lead to significant false negatives. We propose a variant of AtP called AtP*, with two changes to address these failure modes while retaining scalability. We present the first systematic study of AtP and alternative methods for faster activation patching and show that AtP significantly outperforms all other investigated methods, with AtP* providing further significant improvement. Finally, we provide a method to bound the probability of remaining false negatives of AtP* estimates.