For drones, as safety-critical systems, there is an increasing need for onboard detect & avoid (DAA) technology i) to see, sense or detect conflicting traffic or imminent non-cooperative threats due to their high mobility with multiple degrees of freedom and the complexity of deployed unstructured environments, and subsequently ii) to take the appropriate actions to avoid collisions depending upon the level of autonomy. The safe and efficient integration of UAV traffic management (UTM) systems with air traffic management (ATM) systems, using intelligent autonomous approaches, is an emerging requirement where the number of diverse UAV applications is increasing on a large scale in dense air traffic environments for completing swarms of multiple complex missions flexibly and simultaneously. Significant progress over the past few years has been made in detecting UAVs present in aerospace, identifying them, and determining their existing flight path. This study makes greater use of electronic conspicuity (EC) information made available by PilotAware Ltd in developing an advanced collision management methodology -- Drone Aware Collision Management (DACM) -- capable of determining and executing a variety of time-optimal evasive collision avoidance (CA) manoeuvres using a reactive geometric conflict detection and resolution (CDR) technique. The merits of the DACM methodology have been demonstrated through extensive simulations and real-world field tests in avoiding mid-air collisions (MAC) between UAVs and manned aeroplanes. The results show that the proposed methodology can be employed successfully in avoiding collisions while limiting the deviation from the original trajectory in highly dynamic aerospace without requiring sophisticated sensors and prior training.
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The use of the non-parametric Restricted Mean Survival Time endpoint (RMST) has grown in popularity as trialists look to analyse time-to-event outcomes without the restrictions of the proportional hazards assumption. In this paper, we evaluate the power and type I error rate of the parametric and non-parametric RMST estimators when treatment effect is explained by multiple covariates, including an interaction term. Utilising the RMST estimator in this way allows the combined treatment effect to be summarised as a one-dimensional estimator, which is evaluated using a one-sided hypothesis Z-test. The estimators are either fully specified or misspecified, both in terms of unaccounted covariates or misspecified knot points (where trials exhibit crossing survival curves). A placebo-controlled trial of Gamma interferon is used as a motivating example to simulate associated survival times. When correctly specified, the parametric RMST estimator has the greatest power, regardless of the time of analysis. The misspecified RMST estimator generally performs similarly when covariates mirror those of the fitted case study dataset. However, as the magnitude of the unaccounted covariate increases, the associated power of the estimator decreases. In all cases, the non-parametric RMST estimator has the lowest power, and power remains very reliant on the time of analysis (with a later analysis time correlated with greater power).
This paper investigates the multiple testing problem for high-dimensional sparse binary sequences, motivated by the crowdsourcing problem in machine learning. We study the empirical Bayes approach for multiple testing on the high-dimensional Bernoulli model with a conjugate spike and uniform slab prior. We first show that the hard thresholding rule deduced from the posterior distribution is suboptimal. Consequently, the $\ell$-value procedure constructed using this posterior tends to be overly conservative in estimating the false discovery rate (FDR). We then propose two new procedures based on $\adj\ell$-values and $q$-values to correct this issue. Sharp frequentist theoretical results are obtained, demonstrating that both procedures can effectively control the FDR under sparsity. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate our theory in finite samples. To our best knowledge, this work provides the first uniform FDR control result in multiple testing for high-dimensional sparse binary data.
In prediction settings where data are collected over time, it is often of interest to understand both the importance of variables for predicting the response at each time point and the importance summarized over the time series. Building on recent advances in estimation and inference for variable importance measures, we define summaries of variable importance trajectories. These measures can be estimated and the same approaches for inference can be applied regardless of the choice of the algorithm(s) used to estimate the prediction function. We propose a nonparametric efficient estimation and inference procedure as well as a null hypothesis testing procedure that are valid even when complex machine learning tools are used for prediction. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our proposed procedures have good operating characteristics, and we illustrate their use by investigating the longitudinal importance of risk factors for suicide attempt.
To improve the predictability of complex computational models in the experimentally-unknown domains, we propose a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework utilizing the Dirichlet distribution that combines results of several imperfect models. This framework can be viewed as an extension of Bayesian stacking. To illustrate the method, we study the ability of Bayesian model averaging and mixing techniques to mine nuclear masses. We show that the global and local mixtures of models reach excellent performance on both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification and are preferable to classical Bayesian model averaging. Additionally, our statistical analysis indicates that improving model predictions through mixing rather than mixing of corrected models leads to more robust extrapolations.
In recent years, research involving human participants has been critical to advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), particularly in the areas of conversational, human-compatible, and cooperative AI. For example, around 12% and 6% of publications at recent AAAI and NeurIPS conferences indicate the collection of original human data, respectively. Yet AI and ML researchers lack guidelines for ethical, transparent research practices with human participants. Fewer than one out of every four of these AAAI and NeurIPS papers provide details of ethical review, the collection of informed consent, or participant compensation. This paper aims to bridge this gap by exploring normative similarities and differences between AI research and related fields that involve human participants. Though psychology, human-computer interaction, and other adjacent fields offer historic lessons and helpful insights, AI research raises several specific concerns$\unicode{x2014}$namely, participatory design, crowdsourced dataset development, and an expansive role of corporations$\unicode{x2014}$that necessitate a contextual ethics framework. To address these concerns, this paper outlines a set of guidelines for ethical and transparent practice with human participants in AI and ML research. These guidelines can be found in Section 4 on pp. 4$\unicode{x2013}$7.
This paper presents a Bayesian optimization framework for the automatic tuning of shared controllers which are defined as a Model Predictive Control (MPC) problem. The proposed framework includes the design of performance metrics as well as the representation of user inputs for simulation-based optimization. The framework is applied to the optimization of a shared controller for an Image Guided Therapy robot. VR-based user experiments confirm the increase in performance of the automatically tuned MPC shared controller with respect to a hand-tuned baseline version as well as its generalization ability.
We propose a hybrid Finite Volume (FV) - Spectral Element Method (SEM) for modelling aeroacoustic phenomena based on the Lighthill's acoustic analogy. First the fluid solution is computed employing a FV method. Then, the sound source term is projected onto the acoustic grid and the inhomogeneous Lighthill's wave equation is solved employing the SEM. The novel projection method computes offline the intersections between the acoustic and the fluid grids in order to preserve the accuracy. The proposed intersection algorithm is shown to be robust, scalable and able to efficiently compute the geometric intersection of arbitrary polyhedral elements. We then analyse the properties of the projection error, showing that if the fluid grid is fine enough we are able to exploit the accuracy of the acoustic solver and we numerically assess the obtained theoretical estimates. Finally, we address two relevant aeroacoustic benchmarks, namely the corotating vortex pair and the noise induced by a laminar flow around a squared cylinder, to demonstrate in practice the effectiveness of the projection method when dealing with high order solvers. The flow computations are performed with OpenFOAM [46], an open-source finite volume library, while the inhomogeneous Lighthill's wave equation is solved with SPEED [31], an opensource spectral element library.
This paper proposes two innovative vector transport operators, leveraging the Cayley transform, for the generalized Stiefel manifold embedded with a non-standard inner product. Specifically, it introduces the differentiated retraction and an approximation of the Cayley transform to the differentiated matrix exponential. These vector transports are demonstrated to satisfy the Ring-Wirth non-expansive condition under non-standard metrics while preserving isometry. Building upon the novel vector transport operators, we extend the modified Polak-Ribi$\acute{e}$re-Polyak (PRP) conjugate gradient method to the generalized Stiefel manifold. Under a non-monotone line search condition, we prove our algorithm globally converges to a stationary point. The efficiency of the proposed vector transport operators is empirically validated through numerical experiments involving generalized eigenvalue problems and canonical correlation analysis.
Stochastic filtering is a vibrant area of research in both control theory and statistics, with broad applications in many scientific fields. Despite its extensive historical development, there still lacks an effective method for joint parameter-state estimation in SDEs. The state-of-the-art particle filtering methods suffer from either sample degeneracy or information loss, with both issues stemming from the dynamics of the particles generated to represent system parameters. This paper provides a novel and effective approach for joint parameter-state estimation in SDEs via Rao-Blackwellization and modularization. Our method operates in two layers: the first layer estimates the system states using a bootstrap particle filter, and the second layer marginalizes out system parameters explicitly. This strategy circumvents the need to generate particles representing system parameters, thereby mitigating their associated problems of sample degeneracy and information loss. Moreover, our method employs a modularization approach when integrating out the parameters, which significantly reduces the computational complexity. All these designs ensure the superior performance of our method. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate that our method outperforms existing approaches by a large margin.
Safe control with guarantees generally requires the system model to be known. It is far more challenging to handle systems with uncertain parameters. In this paper, we propose a generic algorithm that can synthesize and verify safe controllers for systems with constant, unknown parameters. In particular, we use robust-adaptive control barrier functions (raCBFs) to achieve safety. We develop new theories and techniques using sum-of-squares that enable us to pose synthesis and verification as a series of convex optimization problems. In our experiments, we show that our algorithms are general and scalable, applying them to three different polynomial systems of up to moderate size (7D). Our raCBFs are currently the most effective way to guarantee safety for uncertain systems, achieving 100% safety and up to 55% performance improvement over a robust baseline.
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