We address modelling and computational issues for multiple treatment effect inference under many potential confounders. A primary issue relates to preventing harmful effects from omitting relevant covariates (under-selection), while not running into over-selection issues that introduce substantial variance and a bias related to the non-random over-inclusion of covariates. We propose a novel empirical Bayes framework for Bayesian model averaging that learns from data the extent to which the inclusion of key covariates should be encouraged, specifically those highly associated to the treatments. A key challenge is computational. We develop fast algorithms, including an Expectation-Propagation variational approximation and simple stochastic gradient optimization algorithms, to learn the hyper-parameters from data. Our framework uses widely-used ingredients and largely existing software, and it is implemented within the R package mombf featured on CRAN. This work is motivated by and is illustrated in two applications. The first is the association between salary variation and discriminatory factors. The second, that has been debated in previous works, is the association between abortion policies and crime. Our approach provides insights that differ from previous analyses especially in situations with weaker treatment effects.
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Given the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, understanding the foundations of intelligent behaviour is increasingly important. Active inference, regarded as a general theory of behaviour, offers a principled approach to probing the basis of sophistication in planning and decision-making. In this paper, we examine two decision-making schemes in active inference based on 'planning' and 'learning from experience'. Furthermore, we also introduce a mixed model that navigates the data-complexity trade-off between these strategies, leveraging the strengths of both to facilitate balanced decision-making. We evaluate our proposed model in a challenging grid-world scenario that requires adaptability from the agent. Additionally, our model provides the opportunity to analyze the evolution of various parameters, offering valuable insights and contributing to an explainable framework for intelligent decision-making.
Most currently used tensor regression models for high-dimensional data are based on Tucker decomposition, which has good properties but loses its efficiency in compressing tensors very quickly as the order of tensors increases, say greater than four or five. However, for the simplest tensor autoregression in handling time series data, its coefficient tensor already has the order of six. This paper revises a newly proposed tensor train (TT) decomposition and then applies it to tensor regression such that a nice statistical interpretation can be obtained. The new tensor regression can well match the data with hierarchical structures, and it even can lead to a better interpretation for the data with factorial structures, which are supposed to be better fitted by models with Tucker decomposition. More importantly, the new tensor regression can be easily applied to the case with higher order tensors since TT decomposition can compress the coefficient tensors much more efficiently. The methodology is also extended to tensor autoregression for time series data, and nonasymptotic properties are derived for the ordinary least squares estimations of both tensor regression and autoregression. A new algorithm is introduced to search for estimators, and its theoretical justification is also discussed. Theoretical and computational properties of the proposed methodology are verified by simulation studies, and the advantages over existing methods are illustrated by two real examples.
Preference modelling lies at the intersection of economics, decision theory, machine learning and statistics. By understanding individuals' preferences and how they make choices, we can build products that closely match their expectations, paving the way for more efficient and personalised applications across a wide range of domains. The objective of this tutorial is to present a cohesive and comprehensive framework for preference learning with Gaussian Processes (GPs), demonstrating how to seamlessly incorporate rationality principles (from economics and decision theory) into the learning process. By suitably tailoring the likelihood function, this framework enables the construction of preference learning models that encompass random utility models, limits of discernment, and scenarios with multiple conflicting utilities for both object- and label-preference. This tutorial builds upon established research while simultaneously introducing some novel GP-based models to address specific gaps in the existing literature.
A wide range of applications in science and engineering involve a PDE model in a domain with perforations, such as perforated metals or air filters. Solving such perforated domain problems suffers from computational challenges related to resolving the scale imposed by the geometries of perforations. We propose a neural network-based mesh-free approach for perforated domain problems. The method is robust and efficient in capturing various configuration scales, including the averaged macroscopic behavior of the solution that involves a multiscale nature induced by small perforations. The new approach incorporates the derivative-free loss method that uses a stochastic representation or the Feynman-Kac formulation. In particular, we implement the Neumann boundary condition for the derivative-free loss method to handle the interface between the domain and perforations. A suite of stringent numerical tests is provided to support the proposed method's efficacy in handling various perforation scales.
Adaptiveness is a key principle in information processing including statistics and machine learning. We investigate the usefulness of adaptive methods in the framework of asymptotic binary hypothesis testing, when each hypothesis represents asymptotically many independent instances of a quantum channel, and the tests are based on using the unknown channel and observing outputs. Unlike the familiar setting of quantum states as hypotheses, there is a fundamental distinction between adaptive and non-adaptive strategies with respect to the channel uses, and we introduce a number of further variants of the discrimination tasks by imposing different restrictions on the test strategies. The following results are obtained: (1) We prove that for classical-quantum channels, adaptive and non-adaptive strategies lead to the same error exponents both in the symmetric (Chernoff) and asymmetric (Hoeffding, Stein) settings. (2) The first separation between adaptive and non-adaptive symmetric hypothesis testing exponents for quantum channels, which we derive from a general lower bound on the error probability for non-adaptive strategies; the concrete example we analyze is a pair of entanglement-breaking channels. (3)We prove, in some sense generalizing the previous statement, that for general channels adaptive strategies restricted to classical feed-forward and product state channel inputs are not superior in the asymptotic limit to non-adaptive product state strategies. (4) As an application of our findings, we address the discrimination power of an arbitrary quantum channel and show that adaptive strategies with classical feedback and no quantum memory at the input do not increase the discrimination power of the channel beyond non-adaptive tensor product input strategies.
When complex Bayesian models exhibit implausible behaviour, one solution is to assemble available information into an informative prior. Challenges arise as prior information is often only available for the observable quantity, or some model-derived marginal quantity, rather than directly pertaining to the natural parameters in our model. We propose a method for translating available prior information, in the form of an elicited distribution for the observable or model-derived marginal quantity, into an informative joint prior. Our approach proceeds given a parametric class of prior distributions with as yet undetermined hyperparameters, and minimises the difference between the supplied elicited distribution and corresponding prior predictive distribution. We employ a global, multi-stage Bayesian optimisation procedure to locate optimal values for the hyperparameters. Three examples illustrate our approach: a cure-fraction survival model, where censoring implies that the observable quantity is a priori a mixed discrete/continuous quantity; a setting in which prior information pertains to $R^{2}$ -- a model-derived quantity; and a nonlinear regression model.
This work presents an abstract framework for the design, implementation, and analysis of the multiscale spectral generalized finite element method (MS-GFEM), a particular numerical multiscale method originally proposed in [I. Babuska and R. Lipton, Multiscale Model.\;\,Simul., 9 (2011), pp.~373--406]. MS-GFEM is a partition of unity method employing optimal local approximation spaces constructed from local spectral problems. We establish a general local approximation theory demonstrating exponential convergence with respect to local degrees of freedom under certain assumptions, with explicit dependence on key problem parameters. Our framework applies to a broad class of multiscale PDEs with $L^{\infty}$-coefficients in both continuous and discrete, finite element settings, including highly indefinite problems (convection-dominated diffusion, as well as the high-frequency Helmholtz, Maxwell and elastic wave equations with impedance boundary conditions), and higher-order problems. Notably, we prove a local convergence rate of $O(e^{-cn^{1/d}})$ for MS-GFEM for all these problems, improving upon the $O(e^{-cn^{1/(d+1)}})$ rate shown by Babuska and Lipton. Moreover, based on the abstract local approximation theory for MS-GFEM, we establish a unified framework for showing low-rank approximations to multiscale PDEs. This framework applies to the aforementioned problems, proving that the associated Green's functions admit an $O(|\log\epsilon|^{d})$-term separable approximation on well-separated domains with error $\epsilon>0$. Our analysis improves and generalizes the result in [M. Bebendorf and W. Hackbusch, Numerische Mathematik, 95 (2003), pp.~1-28] where an $O(|\log\epsilon|^{d+1})$-term separable approximation was proved for Poisson-type problems.
Predictions in the form of probability distributions are crucial for decision-making. Quantile regression enables this within spatial interpolation settings for merging remote sensing and gauge precipitation data. However, ensemble learning of quantile regression algorithms remains unexplored in this context. Here, we address this gap by introducing nine quantile-based ensemble learners and applying them to large precipitation datasets. We employed a novel feature engineering strategy, reducing predictors to distance-weighted satellite precipitation at relevant locations, combined with location elevation. Our ensemble learners include six stacking and three simple methods (mean, median, best combiner), combining six individual algorithms: quantile regression (QR), quantile regression forests (QRF), generalized random forests (GRF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM), and quantile regression neural networks (QRNN). These algorithms serve as both base learners and combiners within different stacking methods. We evaluated performance against QR using quantile scoring functions in a large dataset comprising 15 years of monthly gauge-measured and satellite precipitation in contiguous US (CONUS). Stacking with QR and QRNN yielded the best results across quantile levels of interest (0.025, 0.050, 0.075, 0.100, 0.200, 0.300, 0.400, 0.500, 0.600, 0.700, 0.800, 0.900, 0.925, 0.950, 0.975), surpassing the reference method by 3.91% to 8.95%. This demonstrates the potential of stacking to improve probabilistic predictions in spatial interpolation and beyond.
In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.
Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.
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