Testing cross-sectional independence in panel data models is of fundamental importance in econometric analysis with high-dimensional panels. Recently, econometricians began to turn their attention to the problem in the presence of serial dependence. The existing procedure for testing cross-sectional independence with serial correlation is based on the sum of the sample cross-sectional correlations, which generally performs well when the alternative has dense cross-sectional correlations, but suffers from low power against sparse alternatives. To deal with sparse alternatives, we propose a test based on the maximum of the squared sample cross-sectional correlations. Furthermore, we propose a combined test to combine the p-values of the max based and sum based tests, which performs well under both dense and sparse alternatives. The combined test relies on the asymptotic independence of the max based and sum based test statistics, which we show rigorously. We show that the proposed max based and combined tests have attractive theoretical properties and demonstrate the superior performance via extensive simulation results. We apply the two new tests to analyze the weekly returns on the securities in the S\&P 500 index under the Fama-French three-factor model, and confirm the usefulness of the proposed combined test in detecting cross-sectional independence.
We systematically study a wide variety of generative models spanning semantically-diverse image datasets to understand and improve the feature extractors and metrics used to evaluate them. Using best practices in psychophysics, we measure human perception of image realism for generated samples by conducting the largest experiment evaluating generative models to date, and find that no existing metric strongly correlates with human evaluations. Comparing to 17 modern metrics for evaluating the overall performance, fidelity, diversity, rarity, and memorization of generative models, we find that the state-of-the-art perceptual realism of diffusion models as judged by humans is not reflected in commonly reported metrics such as FID. This discrepancy is not explained by diversity in generated samples, though one cause is over-reliance on Inception-V3. We address these flaws through a study of alternative self-supervised feature extractors, find that the semantic information encoded by individual networks strongly depends on their training procedure, and show that DINOv2-ViT-L/14 allows for much richer evaluation of generative models. Next, we investigate data memorization, and find that generative models do memorize training examples on simple, smaller datasets like CIFAR10, but not necessarily on more complex datasets like ImageNet. However, our experiments show that current metrics do not properly detect memorization: none in the literature is able to separate memorization from other phenomena such as underfitting or mode shrinkage. To facilitate further development of generative models and their evaluation we release all generated image datasets, human evaluation data, and a modular library to compute 17 common metrics for 9 different encoders at //github.com/layer6ai-labs/dgm-eval.
The scaled boundary finite element method (SBFEM) has recently been employed as an efficient means to model three-dimensional structures, in particular when the geometry is provided as a voxel-based image. To this end, an octree decomposition of the computational domain is deployed and each cubic cell is treated as an SBFEM subdomain. The surfaces of each subdomain are discretized in the finite element sense. We improve on this idea by combining the semi-analytical concept of the SBFEM with certain transition elements on the subdomains' surfaces. Thus, we avoid the triangulation of surfaces employed in previous works and consequently reduce the number of surface elements and degrees of freedom. In addition, these discretizations allow coupling elements of arbitrary order such that local p-refinement can be achieved straightforwardly.
We propose a novel diffusion map particle system (DMPS) for generative modeling, based on diffusion maps and Laplacian-adjusted Wasserstein gradient descent (LAWGD). Diffusion maps are used to approximate the generator of the corresponding Langevin diffusion process from samples, and hence to learn the underlying data-generating manifold. On the other hand, LAWGD enables efficient sampling from the target distribution given a suitable choice of kernel, which we construct here via a spectral approximation of the generator, computed with diffusion maps. Our method requires no offline training and minimal tuning, and can outperform other approaches on data sets of moderate dimension.
Small data learning problems are characterized by a significant discrepancy between the limited amount of response variable observations and the large feature space dimension. In this setting, the common learning tools struggle to identify the features important for the classification task from those that bear no relevant information, and cannot derive an appropriate learning rule which allows to discriminate between different classes. As a potential solution to this problem, here we exploit the idea of reducing and rotating the feature space in a lower-dimensional gauge and propose the Gauge-Optimal Approximate Learning (GOAL) algorithm, which provides an analytically tractable joint solution to the dimension reduction, feature segmentation and classification problems for small data learning problems. We prove that the optimal solution of the GOAL algorithm consists in piecewise-linear functions in the Euclidean space, and that it can be approximated through a monotonically convergent algorithm which presents -- under the assumption of a discrete segmentation of the feature space -- a closed-form solution for each optimization substep and an overall linear iteration cost scaling. The GOAL algorithm has been compared to other state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) tools on both synthetic data and challenging real-world applications from climate science and bioinformatics (i.e., prediction of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and inference of epigenetically-induced gene-activity networks from limited experimental data). The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the reported best competitors for these problems both in learning performance and computational cost.
For multi-scale problems, the conventional physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) face some challenges in obtaining available predictions. In this paper, based on PINNs, we propose a practical deep learning framework for multi-scale problems by reconstructing the loss function and associating it with special neural network architectures. New PINN methods derived from the improved PINN framework differ from the conventional PINN method mainly in two aspects. First, the new methods use a novel loss function by modifying the standard loss function through a (grouping) regularization strategy. The regularization strategy implements a different power operation on each loss term so that all loss terms composing the loss function are of approximately the same order of magnitude, which makes all loss terms be optimized synchronously during the optimization process. Second, for the multi-frequency or high-frequency problems, in addition to using the modified loss function, new methods upgrade the neural network architecture from the common fully-connected neural network to special network architectures such as the Fourier feature architecture, and the integrated architecture developed by us. The combination of the above two techniques leads to a significant improvement in the computational accuracy of multi-scale problems. Several challenging numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The proposed methods not only significantly outperform the conventional PINN method in terms of computational efficiency and computational accuracy, but also compare favorably with the state-of-the-art methods in the recent literature. The improved PINN framework facilitates better application of PINNs to multi-scale problems.
Stress prediction in porous materials and structures is challenging due to the high computational cost associated with direct numerical simulations. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based architectures have recently been proposed as surrogates to approximate and extrapolate the solution of such multiscale simulations. These methodologies are usually limited to 2D problems due to the high computational cost of 3D voxel based CNNs. We propose a novel geometric learning approach based on a Graph Neural Network (GNN) that efficiently deals with three-dimensional problems by performing convolutions over 2D surfaces only. Following our previous developments using pixel-based CNN, we train the GNN to automatically add local fine-scale stress corrections to an inexpensively computed coarse stress prediction in the porous structure of interest. Our method is Bayesian and generates densities of stress fields, from which credible intervals may be extracted. As a second scientific contribution, we propose to improve the extrapolation ability of our network by deploying a strategy of online physics-based corrections. Specifically, we condition the posterior predictions of our probabilistic predictions to satisfy partial equilibrium at the microscale, at the inference stage. This is done using an Ensemble Kalman algorithm, to ensure tractability of the Bayesian conditioning operation. We show that this innovative methodology allows us to alleviate the effect of undesirable biases observed in the outputs of the uncorrected GNN, and improves the accuracy of the predictions in general.
Computer model calibration involves using partial and imperfect observations of the real world to learn which values of a model's input parameters lead to outputs that are consistent with real-world observations. When calibrating models with high-dimensional output (e.g. a spatial field), it is common to represent the output as a linear combination of a small set of basis vectors. Often, when trying to calibrate to such output, what is important to the credibility of the model is that key emergent physical phenomena are represented, even if not faithfully or in the right place. In these cases, comparison of model output and data in a linear subspace is inappropriate and will usually lead to poor model calibration. To overcome this, we present kernel-based history matching (KHM), generalising the meaning of the technique sufficiently to be able to project model outputs and observations into a higher-dimensional feature space, where patterns can be compared without their location necessarily being fixed. We develop the technical methodology, present an expert-driven kernel selection algorithm, and then apply the techniques to the calibration of boundary layer clouds for the French climate model IPSL-CM.
Causal representation learning algorithms discover lower-dimensional representations of data that admit a decipherable interpretation of cause and effect; as achieving such interpretable representations is challenging, many causal learning algorithms utilize elements indicating prior information, such as (linear) structural causal models, interventional data, or weak supervision. Unfortunately, in exploratory causal representation learning, such elements and prior information may not be available or warranted. Alternatively, scientific datasets often have multiple modalities or physics-based constraints, and the use of such scientific, multimodal data has been shown to improve disentanglement in fully unsupervised settings. Consequently, we introduce a causal representation learning algorithm (causalPIMA) that can use multimodal data and known physics to discover important features with causal relationships. Our innovative algorithm utilizes a new differentiable parametrization to learn a directed acyclic graph (DAG) together with a latent space of a variational autoencoder in an end-to-end differentiable framework via a single, tractable evidence lower bound loss function. We place a Gaussian mixture prior on the latent space and identify each of the mixtures with an outcome of the DAG nodes; this novel identification enables feature discovery with causal relationships. Tested against a synthetic and a scientific dataset, our results demonstrate the capability of learning an interpretable causal structure while simultaneously discovering key features in a fully unsupervised setting.
Conformal inference is a fundamental and versatile tool that provides distribution-free guarantees for many machine learning tasks. We consider the transductive setting, where decisions are made on a test sample of $m$ new points, giving rise to $m$ conformal $p$-values. {While classical results only concern their marginal distribution, we show that their joint distribution follows a P\'olya urn model, and establish a concentration inequality for their empirical distribution function.} The results hold for arbitrary exchangeable scores, including {\it adaptive} ones that can use the covariates of the test+calibration samples at training stage for increased accuracy. We demonstrate the usefulness of these theoretical results through uniform, in-probability guarantees for two machine learning tasks of current interest: interval prediction for transductive transfer learning and novelty detection based on two-class classification.
We consider optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) under model uncertainty. Specifically, we consider inverse problems in which, in addition to the inversion parameters, the governing PDEs include secondary uncertain parameters. We focus on problems with infinite-dimensional inversion and secondary parameters and present a scalable computational framework for optimal design of such problems. The proposed approach enables Bayesian inversion and OED under uncertainty within a unified framework. We build on the Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach, to incorporate modeling uncertainties in the Bayesian inverse problem, and methods for A-optimal design of infinite-dimensional Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems. Specifically, a Gaussian approximation to the posterior at the maximum a posteriori probability point is used to define an uncertainty aware OED objective that is tractable to evaluate and optimize. In particular, the OED objective can be computed at a cost, in the number of PDE solves, that does not grow with the dimension of the discretized inversion and secondary parameters. The OED problem is formulated as a binary bilevel PDE constrained optimization problem and a greedy algorithm, which provides a pragmatic approach, is used to find optimal designs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for a model inverse problem governed by an elliptic PDE on a three-dimensional domain. Our computational results also highlight the pitfalls of ignoring modeling uncertainties in the OED and/or inference stages.