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Stochastic simulations such as large-scale, spatiotemporal, age-structured epidemic models are computationally expensive at fine-grained resolution. We propose Spatiotemporal Neural Processes (STNP), a neural latent variable model to mimic the spatiotemporal dynamics of stochastic simulators. To further speed up training, we use a Bayesian active learning strategy to proactively query the simulator, gather more data, and continuously improve the model. Our model can automatically infer the latent processes which describe the intrinsic uncertainty of the simulator. This also gives rise to a new acquisition function based on latent information gain. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that our approach reduces sample complexity compared with random sampling in high dimension. Empirically, we demonstrate that our framework can faithfully imitate the behavior of a complex infectious disease simulator with a small number of examples, enabling rapid simulation and scenario exploration.

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Processing 是一門開源編(bian)程語言和(he)與之(zhi)配(pei)套的(de)集(ji)成開發環(huan)境(IDE)的(de)名稱(cheng)。Processing 在電子藝術和(he)視覺(jue)設計社區被用(yong)來教授編(bian)程基礎,并(bing)運用(yong)于大量的(de)新(xin)媒體和(he)互動藝術作品中。

The monotone variational inequality is a central problem in mathematical programming that unifies and generalizes many important settings such as smooth convex optimization, two-player zero-sum games, convex-concave saddle point problems, etc. The extragradient method by Korpelevich [1976] is one of the most popular methods for solving monotone variational inequalities. Despite its long history and intensive attention from the optimization and machine learning community, the following major problem remains open. What is the last-iterate convergence rate of the extragradient method for monotone and Lipschitz variational inequalities with constraints? We resolve this open problem by showing a tight $O\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{T}}\right)$ last-iterate convergence rate for arbitrary convex feasible sets, which matches the lower bound by Golowich et al. [2020]. Our rate is measured in terms of the standard gap function. The technical core of our result is the monotonicity of a new performance measure -- the tangent residual, which can be viewed as an adaptation of the norm of the operator that takes the local constraints into account. To establish the monotonicity, we develop a new approach that combines the power of the sum-of-squares programming with the low dimensionality of the update rule of the extragradient method. We believe our approach has many additional applications in the analysis of iterative methods.

In this work we describe an Adaptive Regularization using Cubics (ARC) method for large-scale nonconvex unconstrained optimization using Limited-memory Quasi-Newton (LQN) matrices. ARC methods are a relatively new family of optimization strategies that utilize a cubic-regularization (CR) term in place of trust-regions and line-searches. LQN methods offer a large-scale alternative to using explicit second-order information by taking identical inputs to those used by popular first-order methods such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Solving the CR subproblem exactly requires Newton's method, yet using properties of the internal structure of LQN matrices, we are able to find exact solutions to the CR subproblem in a matrix-free manner, providing large speedups and scaling into modern size requirements. Additionally, we expand upon previous ARC work and explicitly incorporate first-order updates into our algorithm. We provide experimental results when the SR1 update is used, which show substantial speed-ups and competitive performance compared to Adam and other second order optimizers on deep neural networks (DNNs). We find that our new approach, ARCLQN, compares to modern optimizers with minimal tuning, a common pain-point for second order methods.

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a general-purpose optimization-based sampling algorithm that has recently exploded in popularity, but is limited by two issues: it is known to produce biased samples, and it can be slow to converge on complicated distributions. A recently proposed stochastic variant of SVGD (sSVGD) addresses the first issue, producing unbiased samples by incorporating a special noise into the SVGD dynamics such that asymptotic convergence is guaranteed. Meanwhile, Stein variational Newton (SVN), a Newton-like extension of SVGD, dramatically accelerates the convergence of SVGD by incorporating Hessian information into the dynamics, but also produces biased samples. In this paper we derive, and provide a practical implementation of, a stochastic variant of SVN (sSVN) which is both asymptotically correct and converges rapidly. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on a difficult class of test problems -- the Hybrid Rosenbrock density -- and show that sSVN converges using three orders of magnitude fewer gradient evaluations of the log likelihood than its stochastic SVGD counterpart. Our results show that sSVN is a promising approach to accelerating high-precision Bayesian inference tasks with modest-dimension, $d\sim\mathcal{O}(10)$.

This work proposes a model-reduction approach for the material point method on nonlinear manifolds. Our technique approximates the $\textit{kinematics}$ by approximating the deformation map using an implicit neural representation that restricts deformation trajectories to reside on a low-dimensional manifold. By explicitly approximating the deformation map, its spatiotemporal gradients -- in particular the deformation gradient and the velocity -- can be computed via analytical differentiation. In contrast to typical model-reduction techniques that construct a linear or nonlinear manifold to approximate the (finite number of) degrees of freedom characterizing a given spatial discretization, the use of an implicit neural representation enables the proposed method to approximate the $\textit{continuous}$ deformation map. This allows the kinematic approximation to remain agnostic to the discretization. Consequently, the technique supports dynamic discretizations -- including resolution changes -- during the course of the online reduced-order-model simulation. To generate $\textit{dynamics}$ for the generalized coordinates, we propose a family of projection techniques. At each time step, these techniques: (1) Calculate full-space kinematics at quadrature points, (2) Calculate the full-space dynamics for a subset of `sample' material points, and (3) Calculate the reduced-space dynamics by projecting the updated full-space position and velocity onto the low-dimensional manifold and tangent space, respectively. We achieve significant computational speedup via hyper-reduction that ensures all three steps execute on only a small subset of the problem's spatial domain. Large-scale numerical examples with millions of material points illustrate the method's ability to gain an order of magnitude computational-cost saving -- indeed $\textit{real-time simulations}$ -- with negligible errors.

We extend the Deep Galerkin Method (DGM) introduced in Sirignano and Spiliopoulos (2018)} to solve a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that arise in the context of optimal stochastic control and mean field games. First, we consider PDEs where the function is constrained to be positive and integrate to unity, as is the case with Fokker-Planck equations. Our approach involves reparameterizing the solution as the exponential of a neural network appropriately normalized to ensure both requirements are satisfied. This then gives rise to nonlinear a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) where the integral appearing in the equation is handled by a novel application of importance sampling. Secondly, we tackle a number of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations that appear in stochastic optimal control problems. The key contribution is that these equations are approached in their unsimplified primal form which includes an optimization problem as part of the equation. We extend the DGM algorithm to solve for the value function and the optimal control \simultaneously by characterizing both as deep neural networks. Training the networks is performed by taking alternating stochastic gradient descent steps for the two functions, a technique inspired by the policy improvement algorithms (PIA).

The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data that may not be sparse; however, existing results depend on the independent setting of samples. In this study, we analyze a linear regression model with dependent time series data under over-parameterization settings. We consider an estimator via interpolation and developed a theory for excess risk of the estimator under multiple dependence types. This theory can treat infinite-dimensional data without sparsity and handle long-memory processes in a unified manner. Moreover, we bound the risk in our theory via the integrated covariance and nondegeneracy of autocorrelation matrices. The results show that the convergence rate of risks with short-memory processes is identical to that of cases with independent data, while long-memory processes slow the convergence rate. We also present several examples of specific dependent processes that can be applied to our setting.

Momentum methods, including heavy-ball~(HB) and Nesterov's accelerated gradient~(NAG), are widely used in training neural networks for their fast convergence. However, there is a lack of theoretical guarantees for their convergence and acceleration since the optimization landscape of the neural network is non-convex. Nowadays, some works make progress towards understanding the convergence of momentum methods in an over-parameterized regime, where the number of the parameters exceeds that of the training instances. Nonetheless, current results mainly focus on the two-layer neural network, which are far from explaining the remarkable success of the momentum methods in training deep neural networks. Motivated by this, we investigate the convergence of NAG with constant learning rate and momentum parameter in training two architectures of deep linear networks: deep fully-connected linear neural networks and deep linear ResNets. Based on the over-parameterization regime, we first analyze the residual dynamics induced by the training trajectory of NAG for a deep fully-connected linear neural network under the random Gaussian initialization. Our results show that NAG can converge to the global minimum at a $(1 - \mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{\kappa}))^t$ rate, where $t$ is the iteration number and $\kappa > 1$ is a constant depending on the condition number of the feature matrix. Compared to the $(1 - \mathcal{O}(1/{\kappa}))^t$ rate of GD, NAG achieves an acceleration over GD. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theoretical guarantee for the convergence of NAG to the global minimum in training deep neural networks. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to deep linear ResNets and derive a similar convergence result.

We provide a decision theoretic analysis of bandit experiments. The setting corresponds to a dynamic programming problem, but solving this directly is typically infeasible. Working within the framework of diffusion asymptotics, we define suitable notions of asymptotic Bayes and minimax risk for bandit experiments. For normally distributed rewards, the minimal Bayes risk can be characterized as the solution to a nonlinear second-order partial differential equation (PDE). Using a limit of experiments approach, we show that this PDE characterization also holds asymptotically under both parametric and non-parametric distribution of the rewards. The approach further describes the state variables it is asymptotically sufficient to restrict attention to, and therefore suggests a practical strategy for dimension reduction. The upshot is that we can approximate the dynamic programming problem defining the bandit experiment with a PDE which can be efficiently solved using sparse matrix routines. We derive the optimal Bayes and minimax policies from the numerical solutions to these equations. The proposed policies substantially dominate existing methods such as Thompson sampling. The framework also allows for substantial generalizations to the bandit problem such as time discounting and pure exploration motives.

We introduce a novel methodology for particle filtering in dynamical systems where the evolution of the signal of interest is described by a SDE and observations are collected instantaneously at prescribed time instants. The new approach includes the discretisation of the SDE and the design of efficient particle filters for the resulting discrete-time state-space model. The discretisation scheme converges with weak order 1 and it is devised to create a sequential dependence structure along the coordinates of the discrete-time state vector. We introduce a class of space-sequential particle filters that exploits this structure to improve performance when the system dimension is large. This is numerically illustrated by a set of computer simulations for a stochastic Lorenz 96 system with additive noise. The new space-sequential particle filters attain approximately constant estimation errors as the dimension of the Lorenz 96 system is increased, with a computational cost that increases polynomially, rather than exponentially, with the system dimension. Besides the new numerical scheme and particle filters, we provide in this paper a general framework for discrete-time filtering in continuous-time dynamical systems described by a SDE and instantaneous observations. Provided that the SDE is discretised using a weakly-convergent scheme, we prove that the marginal posterior laws of the resulting discrete-time state-space model converge to the posterior marginal posterior laws of the original continuous-time state-space model under a suitably defined metric. This result is general and not restricted to the numerical scheme or particle filters specifically studied in this manuscript.

We prove linear convergence of gradient descent to a global minimum for the training of deep residual networks with constant layer width and smooth activation function. We further show that the trained weights, as a function of the layer index, admits a scaling limit which is H\"older continuous as the depth of the network tends to infinity. The proofs are based on non-asymptotic estimates of the loss function and of norms of the network weights along the gradient descent path. We illustrate the relevance of our theoretical results to practical settings using detailed numerical experiments on supervised learning problems.

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