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We study the fair allocation of mixtures of indivisible goods and chores under lexicographic preferences$\unicode{x2014}$a subdomain of additive preferences. A prominent fairness notion for allocating indivisible items is envy-freeness up to any item (EFX). Yet, its existence and computation has remained a notable open problem. By identifying a class of instances with "terrible chores", we show that determining the existence of an EFX allocation is NP-complete. This result immediately implies the intractability of EFX under additive preferences. Nonetheless, we propose a natural subclass of lexicographic preferences for which an EFX and Pareto optimal (PO) allocation is guaranteed to exist and can be computed efficiently for any mixed instance. Focusing on two weaker fairness notions, we investigate finding EF1 and PO allocations for special instances with terrible chores, and show that MMS and PO allocations can be computed efficiently for any mixed instance with lexicographic preferences.

We study fair division of goods under the broad class of generalized assignment constraints. In this constraint framework, the sizes and values of the goods are agent-specific, and one needs to allocate the goods among the agents fairly while further ensuring that each agent receives a bundle of total size at most the corresponding budget of the agent. Since, in such a constraint setting, it may not always be feasible to partition all the goods among the agents, we conform -- as in recent works -- to the construct of charity to designate the set of unassigned goods. For this allocation framework, we obtain existential and computational guarantees for envy-free (appropriately defined) allocation of divisible and indivisible goods, respectively, among agents with individual, additive valuations for the goods. We deem allocations to be fair by evaluating envy only with respect to feasible subsets. In particular, an allocation is said to be feasibly envy-free (FEF) iff each agent prefers its bundle over every (budget) feasible subset within any other agent's bundle (and within the charity). The current work establishes that, for divisible goods, FEF allocations are guaranteed to exist and can be computed efficiently under generalized assignment constraints. In the context of indivisible goods, FEF allocations do not necessarily exist, and hence, we consider the fairness notion of feasible envy-freeness up to any good (FEFx). We show that, under generalized assignment constraints, an FEFx allocation of indivisible goods always exists. In fact, our FEFx result resolves open problems posed in prior works. Further, for indivisible goods and under generalized assignment constraints, we provide a pseudo-polynomial time algorithm for computing FEFx allocations, and a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for computing approximate FEFx allocations.

Short-term forecasts of infectious disease spread are a critical component in risk evaluation and public health decision making. While different models for short-term forecasting have been developed, open questions about their relative performance remain. Here, we compare short-term probabilistic forecasts of popular mechanistic models based on the renewal equation with forecasts of statistical time series models. Our empirical comparison is based on data of the daily incidence of COVID-19 across six large US states over the first pandemic year. We find that, on average, probabilistic forecasts from statistical time series models are overall at least as accurate as forecasts from mechanistic models. Moreover, statistical time series models better capture volatility. Our findings suggest that domain knowledge, which is integrated into mechanistic models by making assumptions about disease dynamics, does not improve short-term forecasts of disease incidence. We note, however, that forecasting is often only one of many objectives and thus mechanistic models remain important, for example, to model the impact of vaccines or the emergence of new variants.

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is a challenging problem. Although auxiliary variables, such as instrumental variables, are commonly used to identify causal effects, they are often unavailable in practice due to stringent and untestable conditions. To address this issue, previous researches have utilized linear structural equation models to show that the causal effect can be identifiable when noise variables of the treatment and outcome are both non-Gaussian. In this paper, we investigate the problem of identifying the causal effect using auxiliary covariates and non-Gaussianity from the treatment. Our key idea is to characterize the impact of unmeasured confounders using an observed covariate, assuming they are all Gaussian. The auxiliary covariate can be an invalid instrument or an invalid proxy variable. We demonstrate that the causal effect can be identified using this measured covariate, even when the only source of non-Gaussianity comes from the treatment. We then extend the identification results to the multi-treatment setting and provide sufficient conditions for identification. Based on our identification results, we propose a simple and efficient procedure for calculating causal effects and show the $\sqrt{n}$-consistency of the proposed estimator. Finally, we evaluate the performance of our estimator through simulation studies and an application.

Monads in category theory are algebraic structures that can be used to model computational effects in programming languages. We show how the notion of "centre", and more generally "centrality", i.e. the property for an effect to commute with all other effects, may be formulated for strong monads acting on symmetric monoidal categories. We identify three equivalent conditions which characterise the existence of the centre of a strong monad (some of which relate it to the premonoidal centre of Power and Robinson) and we show that every strong monad on many well-known naturally occurring categories does admit a centre, thereby showing that this new notion is ubiquitous. More generally, we study central submonads, which are necessarily commutative, just like the centre of a strong monad. We provide a computational interpretation by formulating equational theories of lambda calculi equipped with central submonads, we describe categorical models for these theories and prove soundness, completeness and internal language results for our semantics.

Longitudinal studies are subject to nonresponse when individuals fail to provide data for entire waves or particular questions of the survey. We compare approaches to nonresponse bias analysis (NRBA) in longitudinal studies and illustrate them on the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010-11 (ECLS-K:2011). Wave nonresponse with attrition often yields a monotone missingness pattern, and the missingness mechanism can be missing at random (MAR) or missing not at random (MNAR). We discuss weighting, multiple imputation (MI), incomplete data modeling, and Bayesian approaches to NRBA for monotone patterns. Weighting adjustments are effective when the constructed weights are correlated to the survey outcome of interest. MI allows for variables with missing values to be included in the imputation model, yielding potentially less biased and more efficient estimates. Multilevel models with maximum likelihood estimation and marginal models estimated using generalized estimating equations can also handle incomplete longitudinal data. Bayesian methods introduce prior information and potentially stabilize model estimation. We add offsets in the MAR results to provide sensitivity analyses to assess MNAR deviations. We conduct NRBA for descriptive summaries and analytic model estimates and find that in the ECLS-K:2011 application, NRBA yields minor changes to the substantive conclusions. The strength of evidence about our NRBA depends on the strength of the relationship between the characteristics in the nonresponse adjustment and the key survey outcomes, so the key to a successful NRBA is to include strong predictors.

Stratification in both the design and analysis of randomized clinical trials is common. Despite features in automated randomization systems to re-confirm the stratifying variables, incorrect values of these variables may be entered. These errors are often detected during subsequent data collection and verification. Questions remain about whether to use the mis-reported initial stratification or the corrected values in subsequent analyses. It is shown that the likelihood function resulting from the design of randomized clinical trials supports the use of the corrected values. New definitions are proposed that characterize misclassification errors as `ignorable' and `non-ignorable'. Ignorable errors may depend on the correct strata and any other modeled baseline covariates, but they are otherwise unrelated to potential treatment outcomes. Data management review suggests most misclassification errors are arbitrarily produced by distracted investigators, so they are ignorable or at most weakly dependent on measured and unmeasured baseline covariates. Ignorable misclassification errors may produce a small increase in standard errors, but other properties of the planned analyses are unchanged (e.g., unbiasedness, confidence interval coverage). It is shown that unbiased linear estimation in the absence of misclassification errors remains unbiased when there are non-ignorable misclassification errors, and the corresponding confidence intervals based on the corrected strata values are conservative.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) methods assume that the expert data is generated by an agent optimizing some reward function. However, in many settings, the agent may optimize a reward function subject to some constraints, where the constraints induce behaviors that may be otherwise difficult to express with just a reward function. We consider the setting where the reward function is given, and the constraints are unknown, and propose a method that is able to recover these constraints satisfactorily from the expert data. While previous work has focused on recovering hard constraints, our method can recover cumulative soft constraints that the agent satisfies on average per episode. In IRL fashion, our method solves this problem by adjusting the constraint function iteratively through a constrained optimization procedure, until the agent behavior matches the expert behavior. We demonstrate our approach on synthetic environments, robotics environments and real world highway driving scenarios.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday conversation and our lives. It is considered as the new electricity that is revolutionizing the world. AI is heavily invested in both industry and academy. However, there is also a lot of hype in the current AI debate. AI based on so-called deep learning has achieved impressive results in many problems, but its limits are already visible. AI has been under research since the 1940s, and the industry has seen many ups and downs due to over-expectations and related disappointments that have followed. The purpose of this book is to give a realistic picture of AI, its history, its potential and limitations. We believe that AI is a helper, not a ruler of humans. We begin by describing what AI is and how it has evolved over the decades. After fundamentals, we explain the importance of massive data for the current mainstream of artificial intelligence. The most common representations for AI, methods, and machine learning are covered. In addition, the main application areas are introduced. Computer vision has been central to the development of AI. The book provides a general introduction to computer vision, and includes an exposure to the results and applications of our own research. Emotions are central to human intelligence, but little use has been made in AI. We present the basics of emotional intelligence and our own research on the topic. We discuss super-intelligence that transcends human understanding, explaining why such achievement seems impossible on the basis of present knowledge,and how AI could be improved. Finally, a summary is made of the current state of AI and what to do in the future. In the appendix, we look at the development of AI education, especially from the perspective of contents at our own university.

A core capability of intelligent systems is the ability to quickly learn new tasks by drawing on prior experience. Gradient (or optimization) based meta-learning has recently emerged as an effective approach for few-shot learning. In this formulation, meta-parameters are learned in the outer loop, while task-specific models are learned in the inner-loop, by using only a small amount of data from the current task. A key challenge in scaling these approaches is the need to differentiate through the inner loop learning process, which can impose considerable computational and memory burdens. By drawing upon implicit differentiation, we develop the implicit MAML algorithm, which depends only on the solution to the inner level optimization and not the path taken by the inner loop optimizer. This effectively decouples the meta-gradient computation from the choice of inner loop optimizer. As a result, our approach is agnostic to the choice of inner loop optimizer and can gracefully handle many gradient steps without vanishing gradients or memory constraints. Theoretically, we prove that implicit MAML can compute accurate meta-gradients with a memory footprint that is, up to small constant factors, no more than that which is required to compute a single inner loop gradient and at no overall increase in the total computational cost. Experimentally, we show that these benefits of implicit MAML translate into empirical gains on few-shot image recognition benchmarks.