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Visualization is an essential operation when assessing the risk of rare events such as coastal or river floodings. The goal is to display a few prototype events that best represent the probability law of the observed phenomenon, a task known as quantization. It becomes a challenge when data is expensive to generate and critical events are scarce, like extreme natural hazard. In the case of floodings, each event relies on an expensive-to-evaluate hydraulic simulator which takes as inputs offshore meteo-oceanic conditions and dyke breach parameters to compute the water level map. In this article, Lloyd's algorithm, which classically serves to quantize data, is adapted to the context of rare and costly-to-observe events. Low probability is treated through importance sampling, while Functional Principal Component Analysis combined with a Gaussian process deal with the costly hydraulic simulations. The calculated prototype maps represent the probability distribution of the flooding events in a minimal expected distance sense, and each is associated to a probability mass. The method is first validated using a 2D analytical model and then applied to a real coastal flooding scenario. The two sources of error, the metamodel and the importance sampling, are evaluated to quantify the precision of the method.

Discovering causal relations from observational data is important. The existence of unobserved variables (e.g. latent confounding or mediation) can mislead the causal identification. To overcome this problem, proximal causal discovery methods attempted to adjust for the bias via the proxy of the unobserved variable. Particularly, hypothesis test-based methods proposed to identify the causal edge by testing the induced violation of linearity. However, these methods only apply to discrete data with strict level constraints, which limits their practice in the real world. In this paper, we fix this problem by extending the proximal hypothesis test to cases where the system consists of continuous variables. Our strategy is to present regularity conditions on the conditional distributions of the observed variables given the hidden factor, such that if we discretize its observed proxy with sufficiently fine, finite bins, the involved discretization error can be effectively controlled. Based on this, we can convert the problem of testing continuous causal relations to that of testing discrete causal relations in each bin, which can be effectively solved with existing methods. These non-parametric regularities we present are mild and can be satisfied by a wide range of structural causal models. Using both simulated and real-world data, we show the effectiveness of our method in recovering causal relations when unobserved variables exist.

We consider off-policy evaluation of dynamic treatment rules under sequential ignorability, given an assumption that the underlying system can be modeled as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP). We propose an estimator, partial history importance weighting, and show that it can consistently estimate the stationary mean rewards of a target policy given long enough draws from the behavior policy. We provide an upper bound on its error that decays polynomially in the number of observations (i.e., the number of trajectories times their length), with an exponent that depends on the overlap of the target and behavior policies, and on the mixing time of the underlying system. Furthermore, we show that this rate of convergence is minimax given only our assumptions on mixing and overlap. Our results establish that off-policy evaluation in POMDPs is strictly harder than off-policy evaluation in (fully observed) Markov decision processes, but strictly easier than model-free off-policy evaluation.

We study the problem of overcoming exponential sample complexity in differential entropy estimation under Gaussian convolutions. Specifically, we consider the estimation of the differential entropy $h(X+Z)$ via $n$ independently and identically distributed samples of $X$, where $X$ and $Z$ are independent $D$-dimensional random variables with $X$ subgaussian with bounded second moment and $Z\sim\mathcal{N}(0,\sigma^2I_D)$. Under the absolute-error loss, the above problem has a parametric estimation rate of $\frac{c^D}{\sqrt{n}}$, which is exponential in data dimension $D$ and often problematic for applications. We overcome this exponential sample complexity by projecting $X$ to a low-dimensional space via principal component analysis (PCA) before the entropy estimation, and show that the asymptotic error overhead vanishes as the unexplained variance of the PCA vanishes. This implies near-optimal performance for inherently low-dimensional structures embedded in high-dimensional spaces, including hidden-layer outputs of deep neural networks (DNN), which can be used to estimate mutual information (MI) in DNNs. We provide numerical results verifying the performance of our PCA approach on Gaussian and spiral data. We also apply our method to analysis of information flow through neural network layers (c.f. information bottleneck), with results measuring mutual information in a noisy fully connected network and a noisy convolutional neural network (CNN) for MNIST classification.

Maximizing the user-item engagement based on vectorized embeddings is a standard procedure of recent recommender models. Despite the superior performance for item recommendations, these methods however implicitly deprioritize the modeling of user-wise similarity in the embedding space; consequently, identifying similar users is underperforming, and additional processing schemes are usually required otherwise. To avoid thorough model re-training, we propose WSFE, a model-agnostic and training-free representation encoder, to be flexibly employed on the fly for effective user segmentation. Underpinned by the optimal transport theory, the encoded representations from WSFE present a matched user-wise similarity/distance measurement between the realistic and embedding space. We incorporate WSFE into six state-of-the-art recommender models and conduct extensive experiments on six real-world datasets. The empirical analyses well demonstrate the superiority and generality of WSFE to fuel multiple downstream tasks with diverse underlying targets in recommendation.

The Network Scale-up Method (NSUM) uses social networks and answers to "How many X's do you know?" questions to estimate hard-to-reach population sizes. This paper focuses on two biases associated with the NSUM. First, different populations are known to have different average social network sizes, introducing degree ratio bias. This is especially true for marginalized populations like sex workers and drug users, where members tend to have smaller social networks than the average person. Second, large subpopulations are weighted more heavily than small subpopulations in current NSUM estimators, leading to poor size estimates of small subpopulations. We show how the degree ratio affects size estimates, provide a method to estimate degree ratios without collecting additional data, and demonstrate that rescaling size estimates improves the estimates for smaller subpopulations. We demonstrate that our adjustment procedures improve the accuracy of NSUM size estimates using simulations and data from two data sources.

The heavy-tailed behavior of the generalized extreme-value distribution makes it a popular choice for modeling extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, etc. However, estimating the distribution's parameters using conventional maximum likelihood methods can be computationally intensive, even for moderate-sized datasets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a computationally efficient, likelihood-free estimation method utilizing a neural network. Through an extensive simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed neural network-based method provides Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameter estimates with comparable accuracy to the conventional maximum likelihood method but with a significant computational speedup. To account for estimation uncertainty, we utilize parametric bootstrapping, which is inherent in the trained network. Finally, we apply this method to 1000-year annual maximum temperature data from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) across North America for three atmospheric concentrations: 289 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (pre-industrial), 700 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (future conditions), and 1400 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$, and compare the results with those obtained using the maximum likelihood approach.

In this paper, we focus our attention on the high-dimensional double sparse linear regression, that is, a combination of element-wise and group-wise sparsity.To address this problem, we propose an IHT-style (iterative hard thresholding) procedure that dynamically updates the threshold at each step. We establish the matching upper and lower bounds for parameter estimation, showing the optimality of our proposal in the minimax sense. Coupled with a novel sparse group information criterion, we develop a fully adaptive procedure to handle unknown group sparsity and noise levels.We show that our adaptive procedure achieves optimal statistical accuracy with fast convergence. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of our method by comparing it with several state-of-the-art algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

We propose a new auto-regressive model for the statistical analysis of multivariate distributional time series. The data of interest consist of a collection of multiple series of probability measures supported over a bounded interval of the real line, and that are indexed by distinct time instants. The probability measures are modelled as random objects in the Wasserstein space. We establish the auto-regressive model in the tangent space at the Lebesgue measure by first centering all the raw measures so that their Fr\'echet means turn to be the Lebesgue measure. Using the theory of iterated random function systems, results on the existence, uniqueness and stationarity of the solution of such a model are provided. We also propose a consistent estimator for the model coefficient. In addition to the analysis of simulated data, the proposed model is illustrated with two real data sets made of observations from age distribution in different countries and bike sharing network in Paris. Finally, due to the positive and boundedness constraints that we impose on the model coefficients, the proposed estimator that is learned under these constraints, naturally has a sparse structure. The sparsity allows furthermore the application of the proposed model in learning a graph of temporal dependency from the multivariate distributional time series.

The aim of this work is to develop a fully-distributed algorithmic framework for training graph convolutional networks (GCNs). The proposed method is able to exploit the meaningful relational structure of the input data, which are collected by a set of agents that communicate over a sparse network topology. After formulating the centralized GCN training problem, we first show how to make inference in a distributed scenario where the underlying data graph is split among different agents. Then, we propose a distributed gradient descent procedure to solve the GCN training problem. The resulting model distributes computation along three lines: during inference, during back-propagation, and during optimization. Convergence to stationary solutions of the GCN training problem is also established under mild conditions. Finally, we propose an optimization criterion to design the communication topology between agents in order to match with the graph describing data relationships. A wide set of numerical results validate our proposal. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work combining graph convolutional neural networks with distributed optimization.