Neurons in early sensory areas rapidly adapt to changing sensory statistics, both by normalizing the variance of their individual responses and by reducing correlations between their responses. Together, these transformations may be viewed as an adaptive form of statistical whitening. Existing mechanistic models of adaptive whitening exclusively use either synaptic plasticity or gain modulation as the biological substrate for adaptation; however, on their own, each of these models has significant limitations. In this work, we unify these approaches in a normative multi-timescale mechanistic model that adaptively whitens its responses with complementary computational roles for synaptic plasticity and gain modulation. Gains are modified on a fast timescale to adapt to the current statistical context, whereas synapses are modified on a slow timescale to match structural properties of the input statistics that are invariant across contexts. Our model is derived from a novel multi-timescale whitening objective that factorizes the inverse whitening matrix into basis vectors, which correspond to synaptic weights, and a diagonal matrix, which corresponds to neuronal gains. We test our model on synthetic and natural datasets and find that the synapses learn optimal configurations over long timescales that enable adaptive whitening on short timescales using gain modulation.
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Accurate simulation of granular flow dynamics is crucial for assessing various geotechnical risks, including landslides and debris flows. Granular flows involve a dynamic rearrangement of particles exhibiting complex transitions from solid-like to fluid-like responses. Traditional continuum and discrete numerical methods are limited by their computational cost in simulating large-scale systems. Statistical or machine learning-based models offer an alternative. Still, they are largely empirical, based on a limited set of parameters. Due to their permutation-dependent learning, traditional machine learning-based models require huge training data to generalize. To resolve these problems, we use a graph neural network, a state-of-the-art machine learning architecture that learns local interactions. Graphs represent the state of dynamically changing granular flows and the interaction laws, such as energy and momentum exchange between grains. We develop a graph neural network-based simulator (GNS) that takes the current state of granular flow and predicts the next state using Euler explicit integration by learning the local interaction laws. We train GNS on different granular trajectories. We then assess the performance of GNS by predicting granular column collapse. GNS accurately predicts flow dynamics for column collapses with different aspect ratios unseen during training. GNS is hundreds of times faster than high-fidelity numerical simulators. The model also generalizes to domains much larger than the training data, handling more than twice the number of particles than it was trained on.
Calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used to assess the quality of univariate distributional forecasts. However, PIT-based calibration tests for multivariate distributional forecasts face various challenges. We propose two new types of tests based on proper scoring rules, which overcome these challenges. They arise from a general framework for calibration testing in the multivariate case, introduced in this work. The new tests have good size and power properties in simulations and solve various problems of existing tests. We apply the tests to forecast distributions for macroeconomic and financial time series data.
How neuronal circuits achieve credit assignment remains a central unsolved question in systems neuroscience. Various studies have suggested plausible solutions for back-propagating error signals through multi-layer networks. These purely functionally motivated models assume distinct neuronal compartments to represent local error signals that determine the sign of synaptic plasticity. However, this explicit error modulation is inconsistent with phenomenological plasticity models in which the sign depends primarily on postsynaptic activity. Here we show how a plausible microcircuit model and Hebbian learning rule derived within an adaptive control theory framework can resolve this discrepancy. Assuming errors are encoded in top-down dis-inhibitory synaptic afferents, we show that error-modulated learning emerges naturally at the circuit level when recurrent inhibition explicitly influences Hebbian plasticity. The same learning rule accounts for experimentally observed plasticity in the absence of inhibition and performs comparably to back-propagation of error (BP) on several non-linearly separable benchmarks. Our findings bridge the gap between functional and experimentally observed plasticity rules and make concrete predictions on inhibitory modulation of excitatory plasticity.
We consider the problem of chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function and satisfy constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The real world declinations of this problem are particularly challenging because of their inherent computational cost. To tackle such problems, we propose a new Bayesian optimization method. It applies to the situation where the uncertainty comes from some of the inputs, so that it becomes possible to define an acquisition criterion in the joint controlled-uncontrolled input space. The main contribution of this work is an acquisition criterion that accounts for both the average improvement in objective function and the constraint reliability. The criterion is derived following the Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction logic and its maximization provides both optimal controlled and uncontrolled parameters. Analytical expressions are given to efficiently calculate the criterion. Numerical studies on test functions are presented. It is found through experimental comparisons with alternative sampling criteria that the adequation between the sampling criterion and the problem contributes to the efficiency of the overall optimization. As a side result, an expression for the variance of the improvement is given.
Due to the dynamic characteristics of instantaneity and steepness, employing domain decomposition techniques for simulating rogue wave solutions is highly appropriate. Wherein, the backward compatible PINN (bc-PINN) is a temporally sequential scheme to solve PDEs over successive time segments while satisfying all previously obtained solutions. In this work, we propose improvements to the original bc-PINN algorithm in two aspects based on the characteristics of error propagation. One is to modify the loss term for ensuring backward compatibility by selecting the earliest learned solution for each sub-domain as pseudo reference solution. The other is to adopt the concatenation of solutions obtained from individual subnetworks as the final form of the predicted solution. The improved backward compatible PINN (Ibc-PINN) is applied to study data-driven higher-order rogue waves for the nonlinear Schr\"{o}dinger (NLS) equation and the AB system to demonstrate the effectiveness and advantages. Transfer learning and initial condition guided learning (ICGL) techniques are also utilized to accelerate the training. Moreover, the error analysis is conducted on each sub-domain and it turns out that the slowdown of Ibc-PINN in error accumulation speed can yield greater advantages in accuracy. In short, numerical results fully indicate that Ibc-PINN significantly outperforms bc-PINN in terms of accuracy and stability without sacrificing efficiency.
Although high-resolution gridded climate variables are provided by multiple sources, the need for country and region-specific climate data weighted by indicators of economic activity is becoming increasingly common in environmental and economic research. We process available information from different climate data sources to provide spatially aggregated data with global coverage for both countries (GADM0 resolution) and regions (GADM1 resolution) and for a variety of climate indicators (average precipitations, average temperatures, average SPEI). We weigh gridded climate data by population density or by night light intensity -- both proxies of economic activity -- before aggregation. Climate variables are measured daily, monthly, and annually, covering (depending on the data source) a time window from 1900 (at the earliest) to 2023. We pipeline all the preprocessing procedures in a unified framework, which we share in the open-access Weighted Climate Data Repository web app. Finally, we validate our data through a systematic comparison with those employed in leading climate impact studies.
We study the problem of clustering networks whose nodes have imputed or physical positions in a single dimension, for example prestige hierarchies or the similarity dimension of hyperbolic embeddings. Existing algorithms, such as the critical gap method and other greedy strategies, only offer approximate solutions to this problem. Here, we introduce a dynamic programming approach that returns provably optimal solutions in polynomial time -- O(n^2) steps -- for a broad class of clustering objectives. We demonstrate the algorithm through applications to synthetic and empirical networks and show that it outperforms existing heuristics by a significant margin, with a similar execution time.
Brain atrophy and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) are critical neuroimaging features for ascertaining brain injury in cerebrovascular disease and multiple sclerosis. Automated segmentation and quantification is desirable but existing methods require high-resolution MRI with good signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). This precludes application to clinical and low-field portable MRI (pMRI) scans, thus hampering large-scale tracking of atrophy and WMH progression, especially in underserved areas where pMRI has huge potential. Here we present a method that segments white matter hyperintensity and 36 brain regions from scans of any resolution and contrast (including pMRI) without retraining. We show results on six public datasets and on a private dataset with paired high- and low-field scans (3T and 64mT), where we attain strong correlation between the WMH ($\rho$=.85) and hippocampal volumes (r=.89) estimated at both fields. Our method is publicly available as part of FreeSurfer, at: //surfer.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/fswiki/WMH-SynthSeg.
The expressivity of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can be entirely characterized by appropriate fragments of the first-order logic. Namely, any query of the two variable fragment of graded modal logic (GC2) interpreted over labeled graphs can be expressed using a GNN whose size depends only on the depth of the query. As pointed out by [Barcelo & Al., 2020, Grohe, 2021], this description holds for a family of activation functions, leaving the possibility for a hierarchy of logics expressible by GNNs depending on the chosen activation function. In this article, we show that such hierarchy indeed exists by proving that GC2 queries cannot be expressed by GNNs with polynomial activation functions. This implies a separation between polynomial and popular non-polynomial activations (such as Rectified Linear Units) and answers an open question formulated by [Grohe, 2021].
This paper considers the problem of robust iterative Bayesian smoothing in nonlinear state-space models with additive noise using Gaussian approximations. Iterative methods are known to improve smoothed estimates but are not guaranteed to converge, motivating the development of more robust versions of the algorithms. The aim of this article is to present Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) and line-search extensions of the classical iterated extended Kalman smoother (IEKS) as well as the iterated posterior linearisation smoother (IPLS). The IEKS has previously been shown to be equivalent to the Gauss-Newton (GN) method. We derive a similar GN interpretation for the IPLS. Furthermore, we show that an LM extension for both iterative methods can be achieved with a simple modification of the smoothing iterations, enabling algorithms with efficient implementations. Our numerical experiments show the importance of robust methods, in particular for the IEKS-based smoothers. The computationally expensive IPLS-based smoothers are naturally robust but can still benefit from further regularisation.
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