Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI methods have made use of neural networks (NN) to provide approximate, yet expressive constructs for the unavailable likelihood function and the posterior distribution. However, they do not generally achieve an optimal trade-off between accuracy and computational demand. In this work, we propose an alternative that provides both approximations to the likelihood and the posterior distribution, using structured mixtures of probability distributions. Our approach produces accurate posterior inference when compared to state-of-the-art NN-based SBI methods, while exhibiting a much smaller computational footprint. We illustrate our results on several benchmark models from the SBI literature.
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Deep learning methods are increasingly becoming instrumental as modeling tools in computational neuroscience, employing optimality principles to build bridges between neural responses and perception or behavior. Developing models that adequately represent uncertainty is however challenging for deep learning methods, which often suffer from calibration problems. This constitutes a difficulty in particular when modeling cortical circuits in terms of Bayesian inference, beyond single point estimates such as the posterior mean or the maximum a posteriori. In this work we systematically studied uncertainty representations in latent representations of variational auto-encoders (VAEs), both in a perceptual task from natural images and in two other canonical tasks of computer vision, finding a poor alignment between uncertainty and informativeness or ambiguities in the images. We next showed how a novel approach which we call explaining-away variational auto-encoders (EA-VAEs), fixes these issues, producing meaningful reports of uncertainty in a variety of scenarios, including interpolation, image corruption, and even out-of-distribution detection. We show EA-VAEs may prove useful both as models of perception in computational neuroscience and as inference tools in computer vision.
Surrogate models provide a quick-to-evaluate approximation to complex computational models and are essential for multi-query problems like design optimisation. The inputs of current computational models are usually high-dimensional and uncertain. We consider Bayesian inference for constructing statistical surrogates with input uncertainties and intrinsic dimensionality reduction. The surrogates are trained by fitting to data from prevalent deterministic computational models. The assumed prior probability density of the surrogate is a Gaussian process. We determine the respective posterior probability density and parameters of the posited statistical model using variational Bayes. The non-Gaussian posterior is approximated by a simpler trial density with free variational parameters and the discrepancy between them is measured using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. We employ the stochastic gradient method to compute the variational parameters and other statistical model parameters by minimising the KL divergence. We demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the proposed reduced dimension variational Gaussian process (RDVGP) surrogate on illustrative and robust structural optimisation problems with cost functions depending on a weighted sum of the mean and standard deviation of model outputs.
Boundary condition (BC) calibration to assimilate clinical measurements is an essential step in any subject-specific simulation of cardiovascular fluid dynamics. Bayesian calibration approaches have successfully quantified the uncertainties inherent in identified parameters. Yet, routinely estimating the posterior distribution for all BC parameters in 3D simulations has been unattainable due to the infeasible computational demand. We propose an efficient method to identify Windkessel parameter posteriors using results from a single high-fidelity three-dimensional (3D) model evaluation. We only evaluate the 3D model once for an initial choice of BCs and use the result to create a highly accurate zero-dimensional (0D) surrogate. We then perform Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) using the optimized 0D model to derive the high-dimensional Windkessel BC posterior distribution. We validate this approach in a publicly available dataset of N=72 subject-specific vascular models. We found that optimizing 0D models to match 3D data a priori lowered their median approximation error by nearly one order of magnitude. In a subset of models, we confirm that the optimized 0D models still generalize to a wide range of BCs. Finally, we present the high-dimensional Windkessel parameter posterior for different measured signal-to-noise ratios in a vascular model using SMC. We further validate that the 0D-derived posterior is a good approximation of the 3D posterior. The minimal computational demand of our method using a single 3D simulation, combined with the open-source nature of all software and data used in this work, will increase access and efficiency of Bayesian Windkessel calibration in cardiovascular fluid dynamics simulations.
We provide full theoretical guarantees for the convergence behaviour of diffusion-based generative models under the assumption of strongly log-concave data distributions while our approximating class of functions used for score estimation is made of Lipschitz continuous functions. We demonstrate via a motivating example, sampling from a Gaussian distribution with unknown mean, the powerfulness of our approach. In this case, explicit estimates are provided for the associated optimization problem, i.e. score approximation, while these are combined with the corresponding sampling estimates. As a result, we obtain the best known upper bound estimates in terms of key quantities of interest, such as the dimension and rates of convergence, for the Wasserstein-2 distance between the data distribution (Gaussian with unknown mean) and our sampling algorithm. Beyond the motivating example and in order to allow for the use of a diverse range of stochastic optimizers, we present our results using an $L^2$-accurate score estimation assumption, which crucially is formed under an expectation with respect to the stochastic optimizer and our novel auxiliary process that uses only known information. This approach yields the best known convergence rate for our sampling algorithm.
The use of ML models to predict a user's cognitive state from behavioral data has been studied for various applications which includes predicting the intent to perform selections in VR. We developed a novel technique that uses gaze-based intent models to adapt dwell-time thresholds to aid gaze-only selection. A dataset of users performing selection in arithmetic tasks was used to develop intent prediction models (F1 = 0.94). We developed GazeIntent to adapt selection dwell times based on intent model outputs and conducted an end-user study with returning and new users performing additional tasks with varied selection frequencies. Personalized models for returning users effectively accounted for prior experience and were preferred by 63% of users. Our work provides the field with methods to adapt dwell-based selection to users, account for experience over time, and consider tasks that vary by selection frequency
Test-negative designs are widely used for post-market evaluation of vaccine effectiveness, particularly in cases where randomization is not feasible. Differing from classical test-negative designs where only healthcare-seekers with symptoms are included, recent test-negative designs have involved individuals with various reasons for testing, especially in an outbreak setting. While including these data can increase sample size and hence improve precision, concerns have been raised about whether they introduce bias into the current framework of test-negative designs, thereby demanding a formal statistical examination of this modified design. In this article, using statistical derivations, causal graphs, and numerical simulations, we show that the standard odds ratio estimator may be biased if various reasons for testing are not accounted for. To eliminate this bias, we identify three categories of reasons for testing, including symptoms, disease-unrelated reasons, and case contact tracing, and characterize associated statistical properties and estimands. Based on our characterization, we show how to consistently estimate each estimand via stratification. Furthermore, we describe when these estimands correspond to the same vaccine effectiveness parameter, and, when appropriate, propose a stratified estimator that can incorporate multiple reasons for testing and improve precision. The performance of our proposed method is demonstrated through simulation studies.
In this paper, we plan to show an eigenvalue algorithm for block Hessenberg matrices by using the idea of non-commutative integrable systems and matrix-valued orthogonal polynomials. We introduce adjacent families of matrix-valued $\theta$-deformed bi-orthogonal polynomials, and derive corresponding discrete non-commutative hungry Toda lattice from discrete spectral transformations for polynomials. It is shown that this discrete system can be used as a pre-precessing algorithm for block Hessenberg matrices. Besides, some convergence analysis and numerical examples of this algorithm are presented.
We introduce a framework rooted in a rate distortion problem for Markov chains, and show how a suite of commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are specific instances within it, where the target stationary distribution is controlled by the distortion function. Our approach offers a unified variational view on the optimality of algorithms such as Metropolis-Hastings, Glauber dynamics, the swapping algorithm and Feynman-Kac path models. Along the way, we analyze factorizability and geometry of multivariate Markov chains. Specifically, we demonstrate that induced chains on factors of a product space can be regarded as information projections with respect to a particular divergence. This perspective yields Han--Shearer type inequalities for Markov chains as well as applications in the context of large deviations and mixing time comparison.
Any interactive protocol between a pair of parties can be reliably simulated in the presence of noise with a multiplicative overhead on the number of rounds (Schulman 1996). The reciprocal of the best (least) overhead is called the interactive capacity of the noisy channel. In this work, we present lower bounds on the interactive capacity of the binary erasure channel. Our lower bound improves the best known bound due to Ben-Yishai et al. 2021 by roughly a factor of 1.75. The improvement is due to a tighter analysis of the correctness of the simulation protocol using error pattern analysis. More precisely, instead of using the well-known technique of bounding the least number of erasures needed to make the simulation fail, we identify and bound the probability of specific erasure patterns causing simulation failure. We remark that error pattern analysis can be useful in solving other problems involving stochastic noise, such as bounding the interactive capacity of different channels.
The inference stage of diffusion models can be seen as running a reverse-time diffusion stochastic differential equation, where samples from a Gaussian latent distribution are transformed into samples from a target distribution that usually reside on a low-dimensional manifold, e.g., an image manifold. The intermediate values between the initial latent space and the image manifold can be interpreted as noisy images, with the amount of noise determined by the forward diffusion process noise schedule. We utilize this interpretation to present Boomerang, an approach for local sampling of image manifolds. As implied by its name, Boomerang local sampling involves adding noise to an input image, moving it closer to the latent space, and then mapping it back to the image manifold through a partial reverse diffusion process. Thus, Boomerang generates images on the manifold that are ``similar,'' but nonidentical, to the original input image. We can control the proximity of the generated images to the original by adjusting the amount of noise added. Furthermore, due to the stochastic nature of the reverse diffusion process in Boomerang, the generated images display a certain degree of stochasticity, allowing us to obtain local samples from the manifold without encountering any duplicates. Boomerang offers the flexibility to work seamlessly with any pretrained diffusion model, such as Stable Diffusion, without necessitating any adjustments to the reverse diffusion process. We present three applications for Boomerang. First, we provide a framework for constructing privacy-preserving datasets having controllable degrees of anonymity. Second, we show that using Boomerang for data augmentation increases generalization performance and outperforms state-of-the-art synthetic data augmentation. Lastly, we introduce a perceptual image enhancement framework, which enables resolution enhancement.
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