We introduce a framework rooted in a rate distortion problem for Markov chains, and show how a suite of commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are specific instances within it, where the target stationary distribution is controlled by the distortion function. Our approach offers a unified variational view on the optimality of algorithms such as Metropolis-Hastings, Glauber dynamics, the swapping algorithm and Feynman-Kac path models. Along the way, we analyze factorizability and geometry of multivariate Markov chains. Specifically, we demonstrate that induced chains on factors of a product space can be regarded as information projections with respect to a particular divergence. This perspective yields Han--Shearer type inequalities for Markov chains as well as applications in the context of large deviations and mixing time comparison.
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We propose an individual claims reserving model based on the conditional Aalen-Johansen estimator, as developed in Bladt and Furrer (2023b). In our approach, we formulate a multi-state problem, where the underlying variable is the individual claim size, rather than time. The states in this model represent development periods, and we estimate the cumulative density function of individual claim sizes using the conditional Aalen-Johansen method as transition probabilities to an absorbing state. Our methodology reinterprets the concept of multi-state models and offers a strategy for modeling the complete curve of individual claim sizes. To illustrate our approach, we apply our model to both simulated and real datasets. Having access to the entire dataset enables us to support the use of our approach by comparing the predicted total final cost with the actual amount, as well as evaluating it in terms of the continuously ranked probability score.
Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) is a common rebalancing strategy for handling imbalanced tabular data sets. However, few works analyze SMOTE theoretically. In this paper, we prove that SMOTE (with default parameter) simply copies the original minority samples asymptotically. We also prove that SMOTE exhibits boundary artifacts, thus justifying existing SMOTE variants. Then we introduce two new SMOTE-related strategies, and compare them with state-of-the-art rebalancing procedures. Surprisingly, for most data sets, we observe that applying no rebalancing strategy is competitive in terms of predictive performances, with tuned random forests. For highly imbalanced data sets, our new method, named Multivariate Gaussian SMOTE, is competitive. Besides, our analysis sheds some lights on the behavior of common rebalancing strategies, when used in conjunction with random forests.
In this work, we analyze the convergence rate of randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods under Owen's boundary growth condition [Owen, 2006] via spectral analysis. Specifically, we examine the RQMC estimator variance for the two commonly studied sequences: the lattice rule and the Sobol' sequence, applying the Fourier transform and Walsh--Fourier transform, respectively, for this analysis. Assuming certain regularity conditions, our findings reveal that the asymptotic convergence rate of the RQMC estimator's variance closely aligns with the exponent specified in Owen's boundary growth condition for both sequence types. We also provide analysis for certain discontinuous integrands.
We prove that the combination of a target network and over-parameterized linear function approximation establishes a weaker convergence condition for bootstrapped value estimation in certain cases, even with off-policy data. Our condition is naturally satisfied for expected updates over the entire state-action space or learning with a batch of complete trajectories from episodic Markov decision processes. Notably, using only a target network or an over-parameterized model does not provide such a convergence guarantee. Additionally, we extend our results to learning with truncated trajectories, showing that convergence is achievable for all tasks with minor modifications, akin to value truncation for the final states in trajectories. Our primary result focuses on temporal difference estimation for prediction, providing high-probability value estimation error bounds and empirical analysis on Baird's counterexample and a Four-room task. Furthermore, we explore the control setting, demonstrating that similar convergence conditions apply to Q-learning.
We detail for the first time a complete explicit description of the quasi-cyclic structure of all classical finite generalized quadrangles. Using these descriptions we construct families of quasi-cyclic LDPC codes derived from the point-line incidence matrix of the quadrangles by explicitly calculating quasi-cyclic generator and parity check matrices for these codes. This allows us to construct parity check and generator matrices of all such codes of length up to 400000. These codes cover a wide range of transmission rates, are easy and fast to implement and perform close to Shannon's limit with no visible error floors. We also include some performance data for these codes. Furthermore, we include a complete explicit description of the quasi-cyclic structure of the point-line and point-hyperplane incidences of the finite projective and affine spaces.
We consider the application of the generalized Convolution Quadrature (gCQ) to approximate the solution of an important class of sectorial problems. The gCQ is a generalization of Lubich's Convolution Quadrature (CQ) that allows for variable steps. The available stability and convergence theory for the gCQ requires non realistic regularity assumptions on the data, which do not hold in many applications of interest, such as the approximation of subdiffusion equations. It is well known that for non smooth enough data the original CQ, with uniform steps, presents an order reduction close to the singularity. We generalize the analysis of the gCQ to data satisfying realistic regularity assumptions and provide sufficient conditions for stability and convergence on arbitrary sequences of time points. We consider the particular case of graded meshes and show how to choose them optimally, according to the behaviour of the data. An important advantage of the gCQ method is that it allows for a fast and memory reduced implementation. We describe how the fast and oblivious gCQ can be implemented and illustrate our theoretical results with several numerical experiments.
Classical Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods have been essential for simulating statistical physical systems and have proven well applicable to other systems with complex degrees of freedom. Motivated by the statistical physics origins, Chen, Kastoryano, and Gily\'en [CKG23] proposed a continuous-time quantum thermodynamic analog to Glauber dynamic that is (i) exactly detailed balanced, (ii) efficiently implementable, and (iii) quasi-local for geometrically local systems. Physically, their construction gives a smooth variant of the Davies' generator derived from weak system-bath interaction. In this work, we give an efficiently implementable discrete-time quantum counterpart to Metropolis sampling that also enjoys the desirable features (i)-(iii). Also, we give an alternative highly coherent quantum generalization of detailed balanced dynamics that resembles another physically derived master equation, and propose a smooth interpolation between this and earlier constructions. We study generic properties of all constructions, including the uniqueness of the fixed-point and the locality of the resulting operators. We hope our results provide a systematic approach to the possible quantum generalizations of classical Glauber and Metropolis dynamics.
Differential abundance analysis is a key component of microbiome studies. While dozens of methods for it exist, currently, there is no consensus on the preferred methods. Correctness of results in differential abundance analysis is an ambiguous concept that cannot be evaluated without employing simulated data, but we argue that consistency of results across datasets should be considered as an essential quality of a well-performing method. We compared the performance of 14 differential abundance analysis methods employing datasets from 54 taxonomic profiling studies based on 16S rRNA gene or shotgun sequencing. For each method, we examined how the results replicated between random partitions of each dataset and between datasets from independent studies. While certain methods showed good consistency, some widely used methods were observed to produce a substantial number of conflicting findings. Overall, the highest consistency without unnecessary reduction in sensitivity was attained by analyzing relative abundances with a non-parametric method (Wilcoxon test or ordinal regression model) or linear regression (MaAsLin2). Comparable performance was also attained by analyzing presence/absence of taxa with logistic regression.
The problems of optimal recovering univariate functions and their derivatives are studied. To solve these problems, two variants of the truncation method are constructed, which are order-optimal both in the sense of accuracy and in terms of the amount of involved Galerkin information. For numerical summation, it has been established how the parameters characterizing the problem being solved affect its stability.
We present a class of high-order Eulerian-Lagrangian Runge-Kutta finite volume methods that can numerically solve Burgers' equation with shock formations, which could be extended to general scalar conservation laws. Eulerian-Lagrangian (EL) and semi-Lagrangian (SL) methods have recently seen increased development and have become a staple for allowing large time-stepping sizes. Yet, maintaining relatively large time-stepping sizes post shock formation remains quite challenging. Our proposed scheme integrates the partial differential equation on a space-time region partitioned by linear approximations to the characteristics determined by the Rankine-Hugoniot jump condition. We trace the characteristics forward in time and present a merging procedure for the mesh cells to handle intersecting characteristics due to shocks. Following this partitioning, we write the equation in a time-differential form and evolve with Runge-Kutta methods in a method-of-lines fashion. High-resolution methods such as ENO and WENO-AO schemes are used for spatial reconstruction. Extension to higher dimensions is done via dimensional splitting. Numerical experiments demonstrate our scheme's high-order accuracy and ability to sharply capture post-shock solutions with large time-stepping sizes.
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