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In this paper, we introduce a novel centrality measure to evaluate shock propagation on financial networks capturing a notion of contagion and systemic risk contributions. In comparison to many popular centrality metrics (e.g., eigenvector centrality) which provide only a relative centrality between nodes, our proposed measure is in an absolute scale permitting comparisons of contagion risk over time. In addition, we provide a statistical validation method when the network is estimated from data, as is done in practice. This statistical test allows us to reliably assess the computed centrality values. We validate our methodology on simulated data and conduct empirical case studies using financial data. We find that our proposed centrality measure increases significantly during times of financial distress and is able to provide insights in to the (market implied) risk-levels of different firms and sectors.

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In this paper, we investigate the dynamic emergence of traffic order in a distributed multi-agent system, aiming to minimize inefficiencies that stem from unnecessary structural impositions. We introduce a methodology for developing a dynamically-updating traffic pattern map of the airspace by leveraging information about the consistency and frequency of flow directions used by current as well as preceding traffic. Informed by this map, an agent can discern the degree to which it is advantageous to follow traffic by trading off utilities such as time and order. We show that for the traffic levels studied, for low degrees of traffic-following behavior, there is minimal penalty in terms of aircraft travel times while improving the overall orderliness of the airspace. On the other hand, heightened traffic-following behavior may result in increased aircraft travel times, while marginally reducing the overall entropy of the airspace. Ultimately, the methods and metrics presented in this paper can be used to optimally and dynamically adjust an agent's traffic-following behavior based on these trade-offs.

In this paper, we propose a new set of midpoint-based high-order discretization schemes for computing straight and mixed nonlinear second derivative terms that appear in the compressible Navier-Stokes equations. Firstly, we detail a set of conventional fourth and sixth-order baseline schemes that utilize central midpoint derivatives for the calculation of second derivatives terms. To enhance the spectral properties of the baseline schemes, an optimization procedure is proposed that adjusts the order and truncation error of the midpoint derivative approximation while still constraining the same overall stencil width and scheme order. A new filter penalty term is introduced into the midpoint derivative calculation to help achieve high wavenumber accuracy and high-frequency damping in the mixed derivative discretization. Fourier analysis performed on the both straight and mixed second derivative terms show high spectral efficiency and minimal numerical viscosity with no odd-even decoupling effect. Numerical validation of the resulting optimized schemes is performed through various benchmark test cases assessing their theoretical order of accuracy and solution resolution. The results highlight that the present optimized schemes efficiently utilize the inherent viscosity of the governing equations to achieve improved simulation stability - a feature attributed to their superior spectral resolution in the high wavenumber range. The method is also tested and applied to non-uniform structured meshes in curvilinear coordinates, employing a supersonic impinging jet test case.

Due to common architecture designs, symmetries exist extensively in contemporary neural networks. In this work, we unveil the importance of the loss function symmetries in affecting, if not deciding, the learning behavior of machine learning models. We prove that every mirror-reflection symmetry, with reflection surface $O$, in the loss function leads to the emergence of a constraint on the model parameters $\theta$: $O^T\theta =0$. This constrained solution becomes satisfied when either the weight decay or gradient noise is large. Common instances of mirror symmetries in deep learning include rescaling, rotation, and permutation symmetry. As direct corollaries, we show that rescaling symmetry leads to sparsity, rotation symmetry leads to low rankness, and permutation symmetry leads to homogeneous ensembling. Then, we show that the theoretical framework can explain intriguing phenomena, such as the loss of plasticity and various collapse phenomena in neural networks, and suggest how symmetries can be used to design an elegant algorithm to enforce hard constraints in a differentiable way.

In this paper, we introduce 4DHands, a robust approach to recovering interactive hand meshes and their relative movement from monocular inputs. Our approach addresses two major limitations of previous methods: lacking a unified solution for handling various hand image inputs and neglecting the positional relationship of two hands within images. To overcome these challenges, we develop a transformer-based architecture with novel tokenization and feature fusion strategies. Specifically, we propose a Relation-aware Two-Hand Tokenization (RAT) method to embed positional relation information into the hand tokens. In this way, our network can handle both single-hand and two-hand inputs and explicitly leverage relative hand positions, facilitating the reconstruction of intricate hand interactions in real-world scenarios. As such tokenization indicates the relative relationship of two hands, it also supports more effective feature fusion. To this end, we further develop a Spatio-temporal Interaction Reasoning (SIR) module to fuse hand tokens in 4D with attention and decode them into 3D hand meshes and relative temporal movements. The efficacy of our approach is validated on several benchmark datasets. The results on in-the-wild videos and real-world scenarios demonstrate the superior performances of our approach for interactive hand reconstruction. More video results can be found on the project page: //4dhands.github.io.

There has been considerable recent interest in estimating heterogeneous causal effects. In this paper, we study conditional average partial causal effects (CAPCE) to reveal the heterogeneity of causal effects with continuous treatment. We provide conditions for identifying CAPCE in an instrumental variable setting. Notably, CAPCE is identifiable under a weaker assumption than required by a commonly used measure for estimating heterogeneous causal effects of continuous treatment. We develop three families of CAPCE estimators: sieve, parametric, and reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS)-based, and analyze their statistical properties. We illustrate the proposed CAPCE estimators on synthetic and real-world data.

In this paper, we introduce an improved approach of speculative decoding aimed at enhancing the efficiency of serving large language models. Our method capitalizes on the strengths of two established techniques: the classic two-model speculative decoding approach, and the more recent single-model approach, Medusa. Drawing inspiration from Medusa, our approach adopts a single-model strategy for speculative decoding. However, our method distinguishes itself by employing a single, lightweight draft head with a recurrent dependency design, akin in essence to the small, draft model uses in classic speculative decoding, but without the complexities of the full transformer architecture. And because of the recurrent dependency, we can use beam search to swiftly filter out undesired candidates with the draft head. The outcome is a method that combines the simplicity of single-model design and avoids the need to create a data-dependent tree attention structure only for inference in Medusa. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on several popular open source language models, along with a comprehensive analysis of the trade-offs involved in adopting this approach.

Explainability and uncertainty quantification are two pillars of trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations of point predictions in recognizing model limitations and enhances trust in decisions and their communication. So far, explanations of uncertainties have been rarely studied. The few exceptions rely on Bayesian neural networks or technically intricate approaches, such as auxiliary generative models, thereby hindering their broad adoption. We present a simple approach to explain predictive aleatoric uncertainties. We estimate uncertainty as predictive variance by adapting a neural network with a Gaussian output distribution. Subsequently, we apply out-of-the-box explainers to the model's variance output. This approach can explain uncertainty influences more reliably than literature baselines, which we evaluate in a synthetic setting with a known data-generating process. We further adapt multiple metrics from conventional XAI research to uncertainty explanations. We quantify our findings with a nuanced benchmark analysis that includes real-world datasets. Finally, we apply our approach to an age regression model and discover reasonable sources of uncertainty. Overall, we explain uncertainty estimates with little modifications to the model architecture and demonstrate that our approach competes effectively with more intricate methods.

Symbolic Aggregate approXimation (SAX) is a common dimensionality reduction approach for time-series data which has been employed in a variety of domains, including classification and anomaly detection in time-series data. Domains also include shape recognition where the shape outline is converted into time-series data forinstance epoch classification of archived arrowheads. In this paper we propose a dimensionality reduction and shape recognition approach based on the SAX algorithm, an application which requires responses on cost efficient, IoT-like, platforms. The challenge is largely dealing with the computational expense of the SAX algorithm in IoT-like applications, from simple time-series dimension reduction through shape recognition. The approach is based on lowering the dimensional space while capturing and preserving the most representative features of the shape. We present three scenarios of increasing computational complexity backing up our statements with measurement of performance characteristics

In this paper, we derive variational formulas for the asymptotic exponents (i.e., convergence rates) of the concentration and isoperimetric functions in the product Polish probability space under certain mild assumptions. These formulas are expressed in terms of relative entropies (which are from information theory) and optimal transport cost functionals (which are from optimal transport theory). Hence, our results verify an intimate connection among information theory, optimal transport, and concentration of measure or isoperimetric inequalities. In the concentration regime, the corresponding variational formula is in fact a dimension-free bound in the sense that this bound is valid for any dimension. A cardinality bound for the alphabet of the auxiliary random variable in the expression of the asymptotic isoperimetric exponent is provided, which makes the expression computable by a finite-dimensional program for the finite alphabet case. We lastly apply our results to obtain an isoperimetric inequality in the classic isoperimetric setting, which is asymptotically sharp under certain conditions. The proofs in this paper are based on information-theoretic and optimal transport techniques.

Algorithmic predictions are increasingly used to inform the allocations of goods and interventions in the public sphere. In these domains, predictions serve as a means to an end. They provide stakeholders with insights into likelihood of future events as a means to improve decision making quality, and enhance social welfare. However, if maximizing welfare is the ultimate goal, prediction is only a small piece of the puzzle. There are various other policy levers a social planner might pursue in order to improve bottom-line outcomes, such as expanding access to available goods, or increasing the effect sizes of interventions. Given this broad range of design decisions, a basic question to ask is: What is the relative value of prediction in algorithmic decision making? How do the improvements in welfare arising from better predictions compare to those of other policy levers? The goal of our work is to initiate the formal study of these questions. Our main results are theoretical in nature. We identify simple, sharp conditions determining the relative value of prediction vis-\`a-vis expanding access, within several statistical models that are popular amongst quantitative social scientists. Furthermore, we illustrate how these theoretical insights may be used to guide the design of algorithmic decision making systems in practice.

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