In this paper, we explore model-based approach to training robust and interpretable binarized regression models for multiclass classification tasks using Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP). Our MIP model balances the optimization of prediction margin and model size by using a weighted objective that: minimizes the total margin of incorrectly classified training instances, maximizes the total margin of correctly classified training instances, and maximizes the overall model regularization. We conduct two sets of experiments to test the classification accuracy of our MIP model over standard and corrupted versions of multiple classification datasets, respectively. In the first set of experiments, we show that our MIP model outperforms an equivalent Pseudo-Boolean Optimization (PBO) model and achieves competitive results to Logistic Regression (LR) and Gradient Descent (GD) in terms of classification accuracy over the standard datasets. In the second set of experiments, we show that our MIP model outperforms the other models (i.e., GD and LR) in terms of classification accuracy over majority of the corrupted datasets. Finally, we visually demonstrate the interpretability of our MIP model in terms of its learned parameters over the MNIST dataset. Overall, we show the effectiveness of training robust and interpretable binarized regression models using MIP.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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We consider the statistical analysis of heterogeneous data for clustering and prediction purposes, in situations where the observations include functions, typically time series. We extend the modeling with Mixtures-of-Experts (ME), as a framework of choice in modeling heterogeneity in data for prediction and clustering with vectorial observations, to this functional data analysis context. We first present a new family of functional ME (FME) models, in which the predictors are potentially noisy observations, from entire functions, and the data generating process of the pair predictor and the real response, is governed by a hidden discrete variable representing an unknown partition, leading to complex situations to which the standard ME framework is not adapted. Second, we provide sparse and interpretable functional representations of the FME models, thanks to Lasso-like regularizations, notably on the derivatives of the underlying functional parameters of the model, projected onto a set of continuous basis functions. We develop dedicated expectation--maximization algorithms for Lasso-like regularized maximum-likelihood parameter estimation strategies, to encourage sparse and interpretable solutions. The proposed FME models and the developed EM-Lasso algorithms are studied in simulated scenarios and in applications to two real data sets, and the obtained results demonstrate their performance in accurately capturing complex nonlinear relationships between the response and the functional predictor, and in clustering.
PAC-Bayesian is an analysis framework where the training error can be expressed as the weighted average of the hypotheses in the posterior distribution whilst incorporating the prior knowledge. In addition to being a pure generalization bound analysis tool, PAC-Bayesian bound can also be incorporated into an objective function to train a probabilistic neural network, making them a powerful and relevant framework that can numerically provide a tight generalization bound for supervised learning. For simplicity, we call probabilistic neural network learned using training objectives derived from PAC-Bayesian bounds as {\it PAC-Bayesian learning}. Despite their empirical success, the theoretical analysis of PAC-Bayesian learning for neural networks is rarely explored. This paper proposes a new class of convergence and generalization analysis for PAC-Bayes learning when it is used to train the over-parameterized neural networks by the gradient descent method. For a wide probabilistic neural network, we show that when PAC-Bayes learning is applied, the convergence result corresponds to solving a kernel ridge regression when the probabilistic neural tangent kernel (PNTK) is used as its kernel. Based on this finding, we further characterize the uniform PAC-Bayesian generalization bound which improves over the Rademacher complexity-based bound for non-probabilistic neural network. Finally, drawing the insight from our theoretical results, we propose a proxy measure for efficient hyperparameters selection, which is proven to be time-saving.
Machine learning models can be improved by adapting them to respect existing background knowledge. In this paper we consider multitask Gaussian processes, with background knowledge in the form of constraints that require a specific sum of the outputs to be constant. This is achieved by conditioning the prior distribution on the constraint fulfillment. The approach allows for both linear and nonlinear constraints. We demonstrate that the constraints are fulfilled with high precision and that the construction can improve the overall prediction accuracy as compared to the standard Gaussian process.
In selection processes such as hiring, promotion, and college admissions, implicit bias toward socially-salient attributes such as race, gender, or sexual orientation of candidates is known to produce persistent inequality and reduce aggregate utility for the decision maker. Interventions such as the Rooney Rule and its generalizations, which require the decision maker to select at least a specified number of individuals from each affected group, have been proposed to mitigate the adverse effects of implicit bias in selection. Recent works have established that such lower-bound constraints can be very effective in improving aggregate utility in the case when each individual belongs to at most one affected group. However, in several settings, individuals may belong to multiple affected groups and, consequently, face more extreme implicit bias due to this intersectionality. We consider independently drawn utilities and show that, in the intersectional case, the aforementioned non-intersectional constraints can only recover part of the total utility achievable in the absence of implicit bias. On the other hand, we show that if one includes appropriate lower-bound constraints on the intersections, almost all the utility achievable in the absence of implicit bias can be recovered. Thus, intersectional constraints can offer a significant advantage over a reductionist dimension-by-dimension non-intersectional approach to reducing inequality.
Tree-based models such as decision trees and random forests (RF) are a cornerstone of modern machine-learning practice. To mitigate overfitting, trees are typically regularized by a variety of techniques that modify their structure (e.g. pruning). We introduce Hierarchical Shrinkage (HS), a post-hoc algorithm that does not modify the tree structure, and instead regularizes the tree by shrinking the prediction over each node towards the sample means of its ancestors. The amount of shrinkage is controlled by a single regularization parameter and the number of data points in each ancestor. Since HS is a post-hoc method, it is extremely fast, compatible with any tree growing algorithm, and can be used synergistically with other regularization techniques. Extensive experiments over a wide variety of real-world datasets show that HS substantially increases the predictive performance of decision trees, even when used in conjunction with other regularization techniques. Moreover, we find that applying HS to each tree in an RF often improves accuracy, as well as its interpretability by simplifying and stabilizing its decision boundaries and SHAP values. We further explain the success of HS in improving prediction performance by showing its equivalence to ridge regression on a (supervised) basis constructed of decision stumps associated with the internal nodes of a tree. All code and models are released in a full-fledged package available on Github (github.com/csinva/imodels)
This paper aims to explore models based on the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) approach for business risk classification. Feature selection (FS) algorithms and hyper-parameter optimizations are simultaneously considered during model training. The five most commonly used FS methods including weight by Gini, weight by Chi-square, hierarchical variable clustering, weight by correlation, and weight by information are applied to alleviate the effect of redundant features. Two hyper-parameter optimization approaches, random search (RS) and Bayesian tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), are applied in XGBoost. The effect of different FS and hyper-parameter optimization methods on the model performance are investigated by the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The performance of XGBoost is compared to the traditionally utilized logistic regression (LR) model in terms of classification accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), recall, and F1 score obtained from the 10-fold cross validation. Results show that hierarchical clustering is the optimal FS method for LR while weight by Chi-square achieves the best performance in XG-Boost. Both TPE and RS optimization in XGBoost outperform LR significantly. TPE optimization shows a superiority over RS since it results in a significantly higher accuracy and a marginally higher AUC, recall and F1 score. Furthermore, XGBoost with TPE tuning shows a lower variability than the RS method. Finally, the ranking of feature importance based on XGBoost enhances the model interpretation. Therefore, XGBoost with Bayesian TPE hyper-parameter optimization serves as an operative while powerful approach for business risk modeling.
For neural networks (NNs) with rectified linear unit (ReLU) or binary activation functions, we show that their training can be accomplished in a reduced parameter space. Specifically, the weights in each neuron can be trained on the unit sphere, as opposed to the entire space, and the threshold can be trained in a bounded interval, as opposed to the real line. We show that the NNs in the reduced parameter space are mathematically equivalent to the standard NNs with parameters in the whole space. The reduced parameter space shall facilitate the optimization procedure for the network training, as the search space becomes (much) smaller. We demonstrate the improved training performance using numerical examples.
In this paper, a novel image moments based model for shape estimation and tracking of an object moving with a complex trajectory is presented. The camera is assumed to be stationary looking at a moving object. Point features inside the object are sampled as measurements. An ellipsoidal approximation of the shape is assumed as a primitive shape. The shape of an ellipse is estimated using a combination of image moments. Dynamic model of image moments when the object moves under the constant velocity or coordinated turn motion model is derived as a function for the shape estimation of the object. An Unscented Kalman Filter-Interacting Multiple Model (UKF-IMM) filter algorithm is applied to estimate the shape of the object (approximated as an ellipse) and track its position and velocity. A likelihood function based on average log-likelihood is derived for the IMM filter. Simulation results of the proposed UKF-IMM algorithm with the image moments based models are presented that show the estimations of the shape of the object moving in complex trajectories. Comparison results, using intersection over union (IOU), and position and velocity root mean square errors (RMSE) as metrics, with a benchmark algorithm from literature are presented. Results on real image data captured from the quadcopter are also presented.
The Jaccard index, also referred to as the intersection-over-union score, is commonly employed in the evaluation of image segmentation results given its perceptual qualities, scale invariance - which lends appropriate relevance to small objects, and appropriate counting of false negatives, in comparison to per-pixel losses. We present a method for direct optimization of the mean intersection-over-union loss in neural networks, in the context of semantic image segmentation, based on the convex Lov\'asz extension of submodular losses. The loss is shown to perform better with respect to the Jaccard index measure than the traditionally used cross-entropy loss. We show quantitative and qualitative differences between optimizing the Jaccard index per image versus optimizing the Jaccard index taken over an entire dataset. We evaluate the impact of our method in a semantic segmentation pipeline and show substantially improved intersection-over-union segmentation scores on the Pascal VOC and Cityscapes datasets using state-of-the-art deep learning segmentation architectures.
This paper presents a method of learning qualitatively interpretable models in object detection using popular two-stage region-based ConvNet detection systems (i.e., R-CNN). R-CNN consists of a region proposal network and a RoI (Region-of-Interest) prediction network.By interpretable models, we focus on weakly-supervised extractive rationale generation, that is learning to unfold latent discriminative part configurations of object instances automatically and simultaneously in detection without using any supervision for part configurations. We utilize a top-down hierarchical and compositional grammar model embedded in a directed acyclic AND-OR Graph (AOG) to explore and unfold the space of latent part configurations of RoIs. We propose an AOGParsing operator to substitute the RoIPooling operator widely used in R-CNN, so the proposed method is applicable to many state-of-the-art ConvNet based detection systems. The AOGParsing operator aims to harness both the explainable rigor of top-down hierarchical and compositional grammar models and the discriminative power of bottom-up deep neural networks through end-to-end training. In detection, a bounding box is interpreted by the best parse tree derived from the AOG on-the-fly, which is treated as the extractive rationale generated for interpreting detection. In learning, we propose a folding-unfolding method to train the AOG and ConvNet end-to-end. In experiments, we build on top of the R-FCN and test the proposed method on the PASCAL VOC 2007 and 2012 datasets with performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods.
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