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Conformal inference is a fundamental and versatile tool that provides distribution-free guarantees for many machine learning tasks. We consider the transductive setting, where decisions are made on a test sample of $m$ new points, giving rise to $m$ conformal $p$-values. {While classical results only concern their marginal distribution, we show that their joint distribution follows a P\'olya urn model, and establish a concentration inequality for their empirical distribution function.} The results hold for arbitrary exchangeable scores, including {\it adaptive} ones that can use the covariates of the test+calibration samples at training stage for increased accuracy. We demonstrate the usefulness of these theoretical results through uniform, in-probability guarantees for two machine learning tasks of current interest: interval prediction for transductive transfer learning and novelty detection based on two-class classification.

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often intractable and model simulation may be computationally burdensome. Fortunately, in many of these situations, it is possible to adopt a surrogate model or approximate likelihood function. It may be convenient to conduct Bayesian inference directly with the surrogate, but this can result in bias and poor uncertainty quantification. In this paper we propose a new method for adjusting approximate posterior samples to reduce bias and produce more accurate uncertainty quantification. We do this by optimizing a transform of the approximate posterior that maximizes a scoring rule. Our approach requires only a (fixed) small number of complex model simulations and is numerically stable. We demonstrate good performance of the new method on several examples of increasing complexity.

Threshold selection is a fundamental problem in any threshold-based extreme value analysis. While models are asymptotically motivated, selecting an appropriate threshold for finite samples can be difficult through standard methods. Inference can also be highly sensitive to the choice of threshold. Too low a threshold choice leads to bias in the fit of the extreme value model, while too high a choice leads to unnecessary additional uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters. In this paper, we develop a novel methodology for automated threshold selection that directly tackles this bias-variance trade-off. We also develop a method to account for the uncertainty in this threshold choice and propagate this uncertainty through to high quantile inference. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for threshold selection and subsequent extreme quantile estimation. We apply our method to the well-known, troublesome example of the River Nidd dataset.

Generative diffusion models have achieved spectacular performance in many areas of generative modeling. While the fundamental ideas behind these models come from non-equilibrium physics, in this paper we show that many aspects of these models can be understood using the tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Using this reformulation, we show that generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions corresponding to symmetry breaking phenomena. We argue that this lead to a form of instability that lies at the heart of their generative capabilities and that can be described by a set of mean field critical exponents. We conclude by analyzing recent work connecting diffusion models and associative memory networks in view of the thermodynamic formulations.

Uniform continuity bounds on entropies are generally expressed in terms of a single distance measure between a pair of probability distributions or quantum states, typically, the total variation distance or trace distance. However, if an additional distance measure between the probability distributions or states is known, then the continuity bounds can be significantly strengthened. Here, we prove a tight uniform continuity bound for the Shannon entropy in terms of both the local- and total variation distances, sharpening an inequality proven in [I. Sason, IEEE Trans. Inf. Th., 59, 7118 (2013)]. We also obtain a uniform continuity bound for the von Neumann entropy in terms of both the operator norm- and trace distances. The bound is tight when the quotient of the trace distance by the operator norm distance is an integer. We then apply our results to compute upper bounds on the quantum- and private classical capacities of channels. We begin by refining the concept of approximate degradable channels, namely, $\varepsilon$-degradable channels, which are, by definition, $\varepsilon$-close in diamond norm to their complementary channel when composed with a degrading channel. To this end, we introduce the notion of $(\varepsilon,\nu)$-degradable channels; these are $\varepsilon$-degradable channels that are, in addition, $\nu$-close in completely bounded spectral norm to their complementary channel, when composed with the same degrading channel. This allows us to derive improved upper bounds to the quantum- and private classical capacities of such channels. Moreover, these bounds can be further improved by considering certain unstabilized versions of the above norms. We show that upper bounds on the latter can be efficiently expressed as semidefinite programs. We illustrate our results by obtaining a new upper bound on the quantum capacity of the qubit depolarizing channel.

We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such misspecification. We develop a general framework based on knowledge of the multivariate observational data distribution and we then propose an algorithm for finite sample data, discuss its asymptotic properties, and illustrate its performance on simulated and real data.

In this paper, we propose the novel p-branch-and-bound method for solving two-stage stochastic programming problems whose deterministic equivalents are represented by non-convex mixed-integer quadratically constrained quadratic programming (MIQCQP) models. The precision of the solution generated by the p-branch-and-bound method can be arbitrarily adjusted by altering the value of the precision factor p. The proposed method combines two key techniques. The first one, named p-Lagrangian decomposition, generates a mixed-integer relaxation of a dual problem with a separable structure for a primal non-convex MIQCQP problem. The second one is a version of the classical dual decomposition approach that is applied to solve the Lagrangian dual problem and ensures that integrality and non-anticipativity conditions are met in the optimal solution. The p-branch-and-bound method's efficiency has been tested on randomly generated instances and demonstrated superior performance over commercial solver Gurobi. This paper also presents a comparative analysis of the p-branch-and-bound method efficiency considering two alternative solution methods for the dual problems as a subroutine. These are the proximal bundle method and Frank-Wolfe progressive hedging. The latter algorithm relies on the interpolation of linearisation steps similar to those taken in the Frank-Wolfe method as an inner loop in the classic progressive hedging.

The proximal Galerkin finite element method is a high-order, low iteration complexity, nonlinear numerical method that preserves the geometric and algebraic structure of pointwise bound constraints in infinite-dimensional function spaces. This paper introduces the proximal Galerkin method and applies it to solve free boundary problems, enforce discrete maximum principles, and develop a scalable, mesh-independent algorithm for optimal design problems with pointwise bound constraints. This paper also provides a derivation of the latent variable proximal point (LVPP) algorithm, an unconditionally stable alternative to the interior point method. LVPP is an infinite-dimensional optimization algorithm that may be viewed as having an adaptive barrier function that is updated with a new informative prior at each (outer loop) optimization iteration. One of its main benefits is witnessed when analyzing the classical obstacle problem. Therein, we find that the original variational inequality can be replaced by a sequence of partial differential equations (PDEs) that are readily discretized and solved with, e.g., high-order finite elements. Throughout this work, we arrive at several unexpected contributions that may be of independent interest. These include (1) a semilinear PDE we refer to as the entropic Poisson equation; (2) an algebraic/geometric connection between high-order positivity-preserving discretizations and certain infinite-dimensional Lie groups; and (3) a gradient-based, bound-preserving algorithm for two-field density-based topology optimization. The complete latent variable proximal Galerkin methodology combines ideas from nonlinear programming, functional analysis, tropical algebra, and differential geometry and can potentially lead to new synergies among these areas as well as within variational and numerical analysis.

We study the stability of randomized Taylor schemes for ODEs. We consider three notions of probabilistic stability: asymptotic stability, mean-square stability, and stability in probability. We prove fundamental properties of the probabilistic stability regions and benchmark them against the absolute stability regions for deterministic Taylor schemes.

Deep learning is usually described as an experiment-driven field under continuous criticizes of lacking theoretical foundations. This problem has been partially fixed by a large volume of literature which has so far not been well organized. This paper reviews and organizes the recent advances in deep learning theory. The literature is categorized in six groups: (1) complexity and capacity-based approaches for analyzing the generalizability of deep learning; (2) stochastic differential equations and their dynamic systems for modelling stochastic gradient descent and its variants, which characterize the optimization and generalization of deep learning, partially inspired by Bayesian inference; (3) the geometrical structures of the loss landscape that drives the trajectories of the dynamic systems; (4) the roles of over-parameterization of deep neural networks from both positive and negative perspectives; (5) theoretical foundations of several special structures in network architectures; and (6) the increasingly intensive concerns in ethics and security and their relationships with generalizability.