We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such misspecification. We develop a general framework based on knowledge of the multivariate observational data distribution and we then propose an algorithm for finite sample data, discuss its asymptotic properties, and illustrate its performance on simulated and real data.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Integro-differential equations, analyzed in this work, comprise an important class of models of continuum media with nonlocal interactions. Examples include peridynamics, population and opinion dynamics, the spread of disease models, and nonlocal diffusion, to name a few. They also arise naturally as a continuum limit of interacting dynamical systems on networks. Many real-world networks, including neuronal, epidemiological, and information networks, exhibit self-similarity, which translates into self-similarity of the spatial domain of the continuum limit. For a class of evolution equations with nonlocal interactions on self-similar domains, we construct a discontinuous Galerkin method and develop a framework for studying its convergence. Specifically, for the model at hand, we identify a natural scale of function spaces, which respects self-similarity of the spatial domain, and estimate the rate of convergence under minimal assumptions on the regularity of the interaction kernel. The analytical results are illustrated by numerical experiments on a model problem.
This paper proposes a method for analyzing a series of potential motions in a coupling-tiltable aerial-aquatic quadrotor based on its nonlinear dynamics. Some characteristics and constraints derived by this method are specified as Singular Thrust Tilt Angles (STTAs), utilizing to generate motions including planar motions. A switch-based control scheme addresses issues of control direction uncertainty inherent to the mechanical structure by incorporating a saturated Nussbaum function. A high-fidelity simulation environment incorporating a comprehensive hydrodynamic model is built based on a Hardware-In-The-Loop (HITL) setup with Gazebo and a flight control board. The experiments validate the effectiveness of the absolute and quasi planar motions, which cannot be achieved by conventional quadrotors, and demonstrate stable performance when the pitch or roll angle is activated in the auxiliary control channel.
Calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used to assess the quality of univariate distributional forecasts. However, PIT-based calibration tests for multivariate distributional forecasts face various challenges. We propose two new types of tests based on proper scoring rules, which overcome these challenges. They arise from a general framework for calibration testing in the multivariate case, introduced in this work. The new tests have good size and power properties in simulations and solve various problems of existing tests. We apply the tests to forecast distributions for macroeconomic and financial time series data.
The impact of outliers and anomalies on model estimation and data processing is of paramount importance, as evidenced by the extensive body of research spanning various fields over several decades: thousands of research papers have been published on the subject. As a consequence, numerous reviews, surveys, and textbooks have sought to summarize the existing literature, encompassing a wide range of methods from both the statistical and data mining communities. While these endeavors to organize and summarize the research are invaluable, they face inherent challenges due to the pervasive nature of outliers and anomalies in all data-intensive applications, irrespective of the specific application field or scientific discipline. As a result, the resulting collection of papers remains voluminous and somewhat heterogeneous. To address the need for knowledge organization in this domain, this paper implements the first systematic meta-survey of general surveys and reviews on outlier and anomaly detection. Employing a classical systematic survey approach, the study collects nearly 500 papers using two specialized scientific search engines. From this comprehensive collection, a subset of 56 papers that claim to be general surveys on outlier detection is selected using a snowball search technique to enhance field coverage. A meticulous quality assessment phase further refines the selection to a subset of 25 high-quality general surveys. Using this curated collection, the paper investigates the evolution of the outlier detection field over a 20-year period, revealing emerging themes and methods. Furthermore, an analysis of the surveys sheds light on the survey writing practices adopted by scholars from different communities who have contributed to this field. Finally, the paper delves into several topics where consensus has emerged from the literature. These include taxonomies of outlier types, challenges posed by high-dimensional data, the importance of anomaly scores, the impact of learning conditions, difficulties in benchmarking, and the significance of neural networks. Non-consensual aspects are also discussed, particularly the distinction between local and global outliers and the challenges in organizing detection methods into meaningful taxonomies.
Motivated by the need for the rigorous analysis of the numerical stability of variational least-squares kernel-based methods for solving second-order elliptic partial differential equations, we provide previously lacking stability inequalities. This fills a significant theoretical gap in the previous work [Comput. Math. Appl. 103 (2021) 1-11], which provided error estimates based on a conjecture on the stability. With the stability estimate now rigorously proven, we complete the theoretical foundations and compare the convergence behavior to the proven rates. Furthermore, we establish another stability inequality involving weighted-discrete norms, and provide a theoretical proof demonstrating that the exact quadrature weights are not necessary for the weighted least-squares kernel-based collocation method to converge. Our novel theoretical insights are validated by numerical examples, which showcase the relative efficiency and accuracy of these methods on data sets with large mesh ratios. The results confirm our theoretical predictions regarding the performance of variational least-squares kernel-based method, least-squares kernel-based collocation method, and our new weighted least-squares kernel-based collocation method. Most importantly, our results demonstrate that all methods converge at the same rate, validating the convergence theory of weighted least-squares in our proven theories.
This research note provides algebraic characterizations of the least model, subsumption, and uniform equivalence of propositional Krom logic programs.
This paper describes a trapezoidal quadrature method for the discretization of weakly singular, singular and hypersingular boundary integral operators with complex symmetric quadratic forms. Such integral operators naturally arise when complex coordinate methods or complexified contour methods are used for the solution of time-harmonic acoustic and electromagnetic interface problems in three dimensions. The quadrature is an extension of a locally corrected punctured trapezoidal rule in parameter space wherein the correction weights are determined by fitting moments of error in the punctured trapezoidal rule, which is known analytically in terms of the Epstein zeta function. In this work, we analyze the analytic continuation of the Epstein zeta function and the generalized Wigner limits to complex quadratic forms; this analysis is essential to apply the fitting procedure for computing the correction weights. We illustrate the high-order convergence of this approach through several numerical examples.
This study examines the varying coefficient model in tail index regression. The varying coefficient model is an efficient semiparametric model that avoids the curse of dimensionality when including large covariates in the model. In fact, the varying coefficient model is useful in mean, quantile, and other regressions. The tail index regression is not an exception. However, the varying coefficient model is flexible, but leaner and simpler models are preferred for applications. Therefore, it is important to evaluate whether the estimated coefficient function varies significantly with covariates. If the effect of the non-linearity of the model is weak, the varying coefficient structure is reduced to a simpler model, such as a constant or zero. Accordingly, the hypothesis test for model assessment in the varying coefficient model has been discussed in mean and quantile regression. However, there are no results in tail index regression. In this study, we investigate the asymptotic properties of an estimator and provide a hypothesis testing method for varying coefficient models for tail index regression.
Finite-dimensional truncations are routinely used to approximate partial differential equations (PDEs), either to obtain numerical solutions or to derive reduced-order models. The resulting discretized equations are known to violate certain physical properties of the system. In particular, first integrals of the PDE may not remain invariant after discretization. Here, we use the method of reduced-order nonlinear solutions (RONS) to ensure that the conserved quantities of the PDE survive its finite-dimensional truncation. In particular, we develop two methods: Galerkin RONS and finite volume RONS. Galerkin RONS ensures the conservation of first integrals in Galerkin-type truncations, whether used for direct numerical simulations or reduced-order modeling. Similarly, finite volume RONS conserves any number of first integrals of the system, including its total energy, after finite volume discretization. Both methods are applicable to general time-dependent PDEs and can be easily incorporated in existing Galerkin-type or finite volume code. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods on two examples: direct numerical simulations of the shallow water equation and a reduced-order model of the nonlinear Schrodinger equation. As a byproduct, we also generalize RONS to phenomena described by a system of PDEs.
We discuss avoidance of sure loss and coherence results for semicopulas and standardized functions, i.e., for grounded, 1-increasing functions with value $1$ at $(1,1,\ldots, 1)$. We characterize the existence of a $k$-increasing $n$-variate function $C$ fulfilling $A\leq C\leq B$ for standardized $n$-variate functions $A,B$ and discuss the method for constructing this function. Our proofs also include procedures for extending functions on some countably infinite mesh to functions on the unit box. We provide a characterization when $A$ respectively $B$ coincides with the pointwise infimum respectively supremum of the set of all $k$-increasing $n$-variate functions $C$ fulfilling $A\leq C\leq B$.
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