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We revisit the problem of sampling from a target distribution that has a smooth strongly log-concave density everywhere in $\mathbb R^p$. In this context, if no additional density information is available, the randomized midpoint discretization for the kinetic Langevin diffusion is known to be the most scalable method in high dimensions with large condition numbers. Our main result is a nonasymptotic and easy to compute upper bound on the Wasserstein-2 error of this method. To provide a more thorough explanation of our method for establishing the computable upper bound, we conduct an analysis of the midpoint discretization for the vanilla Langevin process. This analysis helps to clarify the underlying principles and provides valuable insights that we use to establish an improved upper bound for the kinetic Langevin process with the midpoint discretization. Furthermore, by applying these techniques we establish new guarantees for the kinetic Langevin process with Euler discretization, which have a better dependence on the condition number than existing upper bounds.

We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for model and forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. We use a loss function to score the performance of different models and introduce a multilevel discounting scheme which allows a flexible specification of the dynamics of the model weights. This novel and simple model combination approach can be easily applied to large scale model averaging/selection, can handle unusual features such as sudden regime changes, and can be tailored to different forecasting problems. We compare our method to both established methodologies and state of the art methods for a number of macroeconomic forecasting examples. We find that the proposed method offers an attractive, computationally efficient alternative to the benchmark methodologies and often outperforms more complex techniques.

Diffusion models, which convert noise into new data instances by learning to reverse a Markov diffusion process, have become a cornerstone in contemporary generative modeling. While their practical power has now been widely recognized, the theoretical underpinnings remain far from mature. In this work, we develop a suite of non-asymptotic theory towards understanding the data generation process of diffusion models in discrete time, assuming access to reliable estimates of the (Stein) score functions. For a popular deterministic sampler (based on the probability flow ODE), we establish a convergence rate proportional to $1/T$ (with $T$ the total number of steps), improving upon past results; for another mainstream stochastic sampler (i.e., a type of the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM)), we derive a convergence rate proportional to $1/\sqrt{T}$, matching the state-of-the-art theory. Our theory imposes only minimal assumptions on the target data distribution (e.g., no smoothness assumption is imposed), and is developed based on an elementary yet versatile non-asymptotic approach without resorting to toolboxes for SDEs and ODEs. Further, we design two accelerated variants, improving the convergence to $1/T^2$ for the ODE-based sampler and $1/T$ for the DDPM-type sampler, which might be of independent theoretical and empirical interest.

This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.

Recently proposed Generalized Time-domain Velocity Vector (GTVV) is a generalization of relative room impulse response in spherical harmonic (aka Ambisonic) domain that allows for blind estimation of early-echo parameters: the directions and relative delays of individual reflections. However, the derived closed-form expression of GTVV mandates few assumptions to hold, most important being that the impulse response of the reference signal needs to be a minimum-phase filter. In practice, the reference is obtained by spatial filtering towards the Direction-of-Arrival of the source, and the aforementioned condition is bounded by the performance of the applied beamformer (and thus, by the Ambisonic array order). In the present work, we suggest to circumvent this problem by properly modelling the GTVV time series, which permits not only to relax the initial assumptions, but also to extract the information therein is a more consistent and efficient manner, entering the realm of blind system identification. Experiments using measured room impulse responses confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

We study the Electrical Impedance Tomography Bayesian inverse problem for recovering the conductivity given noisy measurements of the voltage on some boundary surface electrodes. The uncertain conductivity depends linearly on a countable number of uniformly distributed random parameters in a compact interval, with the coefficient functions in the linear expansion decaying at an algebraic rate. We analyze the surrogate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for sampling the posterior probability measure, where the multivariate sparse adaptive interpolation, with interpolating points chosen according to a lower index set, is used for approximating the forward map. The forward equation is approximated once before running the MCMC for all the realizations, using interpolation on the finite element (FE) approximation at the parametric interpolating points. When evaluation of the solution is needed for a realization, we only need to compute a polynomial, thus cutting drastically the computation time. We contribute a rigorous error estimate for the MCMC convergence. In particular, we show that there is a nested sequence of interpolating lower index sets for which we can derive an interpolation error estimate in terms of the cardinality of these sets, uniformly for all the parameter realizations. An explicit convergence rate for the MCMC sampling of the posterior expectation of the conductivity is rigorously derived, in terms of the interpolating point number, the accuracy of the FE approximation of the forward equation, and the MCMC sample number. We perform numerical experiments using an adaptive greedy approach to construct the sets of interpolation points. We show the benefits of this approach over the simple MCMC where the forward equation is repeatedly solved for all the samples and the non-adaptive surrogate MCMC with an isotropic index set treating all the random parameters equally.

Interpretability methods are developed to understand the working mechanisms of black-box models, which is crucial to their responsible deployment. Fulfilling this goal requires both that the explanations generated by these methods are correct and that people can easily and reliably understand them. While the former has been addressed in prior work, the latter is often overlooked, resulting in informal model understanding derived from a handful of local explanations. In this paper, we introduce explanation summary (ExSum), a mathematical framework for quantifying model understanding, and propose metrics for its quality assessment. On two domains, ExSum highlights various limitations in the current practice, helps develop accurate model understanding, and reveals easily overlooked properties of the model. We also connect understandability to other properties of explanations such as human alignment, robustness, and counterfactual minimality and plausibility.

Graph neural networks generalize conventional neural networks to graph-structured data and have received widespread attention due to their impressive representation ability. In spite of the remarkable achievements, the performance of Euclidean models in graph-related learning is still bounded and limited by the representation ability of Euclidean geometry, especially for datasets with highly non-Euclidean latent anatomy. Recently, hyperbolic space has gained increasing popularity in processing graph data with tree-like structure and power-law distribution, owing to its exponential growth property. In this survey, we comprehensively revisit the technical details of the current hyperbolic graph neural networks, unifying them into a general framework and summarizing the variants of each component. More importantly, we present various HGNN-related applications. Last, we also identify several challenges, which potentially serve as guidelines for further flourishing the achievements of graph learning in hyperbolic spaces.

Since deep neural networks were developed, they have made huge contributions to everyday lives. Machine learning provides more rational advice than humans are capable of in almost every aspect of daily life. However, despite this achievement, the design and training of neural networks are still challenging and unpredictable procedures. To lower the technical thresholds for common users, automated hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) has become a popular topic in both academic and industrial areas. This paper provides a review of the most essential topics on HPO. The first section introduces the key hyper-parameters related to model training and structure, and discusses their importance and methods to define the value range. Then, the research focuses on major optimization algorithms and their applicability, covering their efficiency and accuracy especially for deep learning networks. This study next reviews major services and toolkits for HPO, comparing their support for state-of-the-art searching algorithms, feasibility with major deep learning frameworks, and extensibility for new modules designed by users. The paper concludes with problems that exist when HPO is applied to deep learning, a comparison between optimization algorithms, and prominent approaches for model evaluation with limited computational resources.