Myocardial infarction and heart failure are major cardiovascular diseases that affect millions of people in the US. The morbidity and mortality are highest among patients who develop cardiogenic shock. Early recognition of cardiogenic shock is critical. Prompt implementation of treatment measures can prevent the deleterious spiral of ischemia, low blood pressure, and reduced cardiac output due to cardiogenic shock. However, early identification of cardiogenic shock has been challenging due to human providers' inability to process the enormous amount of data in the cardiac intensive care unit (ICU) and lack of an effective risk stratification tool. We developed a deep learning-based risk stratification tool, called CShock, for patients admitted into the cardiac ICU with acute decompensated heart failure and/or myocardial infarction to predict onset of cardiogenic shock. To develop and validate CShock, we annotated cardiac ICU datasets with physician adjudicated outcomes. CShock achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.820, which substantially outperformed CardShock (AUROC 0.519), a well-established risk score for cardiogenic shock prognosis. CShock was externally validated in an independent patient cohort and achieved an AUROC of 0.800, demonstrating its generalizability in other cardiac ICUs.
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[Background] The MVP concept has influenced the way in which development teams apply Software Engineering practices. However, the overall understanding of this influence of MVPs on SE practices is still poor. [Objective] Our goal is to characterize the publication landscape on practices that have been used in the context of software MVPs and to gather practitioner insights on the identified practices. [Method] We conducted a systematic mapping study and discussed its results in two focus groups sessions involving twelve industry practitioners that extensively use MVPs in their projects to capture their perceptions on the findings of the mapping study. [Results] We identified 33 papers published between 2013 and 2020 and observed some trends related to MVP ideation and evaluation practices. For instance, regarding ideation, we found six different approaches and mainly informal end-user involvement practices. Regarding evaluation, there is an emphasis on end-user validations based on practices such as usability tests, A/B testing, and usage data analysis. However, there is still limited research related to MVP technical feasibility assessment and effort estimation. Practitioners of the focus group sessions reinforced the confidence in our results regarding ideation and evaluation practices, being aware of most of the identified practices. They also reported how they deal with the technical feasibility assessments and effort estimation in practice. [Conclusion] Our analysis suggests that there are opportunities for solution proposals and evaluation studies to address literature gaps concerning technical feasibility assessment and effort estimation. Overall, more effort needs to be invested into empirically evaluating the existing MVP-related practices.
We provide a collection of examples involving the concept of a product disintegration, which generalizes exchangeability.
Within the framework of Gaussian graphical models, a prior distribution for the underlying graph is introduced to induce a block structure in the adjacency matrix of the graph and learning relationships between fixed groups of variables. A novel sampling strategy named Double Reversible Jumps Markov chain Monte Carlo is developed for block structural learning, under the conjugate G-Wishart prior. The algorithm proposes moves that add or remove not just a single link but an entire group of edges. The method is then applied to smooth functional data. The classical smoothing procedure is improved by placing a graphical model on the basis expansion coefficients, providing an estimate of their conditional independence structure. Since the elements of a B-Spline basis have compact support, the independence structure is reflected on well-defined portions of the domain. A known partition of the functional domain is exploited to investigate relationships among the substances within the compound.
Impaired cardiac function has been described as a frequent complication of COVID-19-related pneumonia. To investigate possible underlying mechanisms, we represented the cardiovascular system by means of a lumped-parameter 0D mathematical model. The model was calibrated using clinical data, recorded in 58 patients hospitalized for COVID-19-related pneumonia, to make it patient-specific and to compute model outputs of clinical interest related to the cardiocirculatory system. We assessed, for each patient with a successful calibration, the statistical reliability of model outputs estimating the uncertainty intervals. Then, we performed a statistical analysis to compare healthy ranges and mean values (over patients) of reliable model outputs to determine which were significantly altered in COVID-19-related pneumonia. Our results showed significant increases in right ventricular systolic pressure, diastolic and mean pulmonary arterial pressure, and capillary wedge pressure. Instead, physical quantities related to the systemic circulation were not significantly altered. Remarkably, statistical analyses made on raw clinical data, without the support of a mathematical model, were unable to detect the effects of COVID-19-related pneumonia, thus suggesting that the use of a calibrated 0D mathematical model to describe the cardiocirculatory system is an effective tool to investigate the impairments of the cardiocirculatory system associated with COVID-19.
We propose a Bayesian model selection approach that allows medical practitioners to select among predictor variables while taking their respective costs into account. Medical procedures almost always incur costs in time and/or money. These costs might exceed their usefulness for modeling the outcome of interest. We develop Bayesian model selection that uses flexible model priors to penalize costly predictors a priori and select a subset of predictors useful relative to their costs. Our approach (i) gives the practitioner control over the magnitude of cost penalization, (ii) enables the prior to scale well with sample size, and (iii) enables the creation of our proposed inclusion path visualization, which can be used to make decisions about individual candidate predictors using both probabilistic and visual tools. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our inclusion path approach and the importance of being able to adjust the magnitude of the prior's cost penalization through a dataset pertaining to heart disease diagnosis in patients at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation, where several candidate predictors with various costs were recorded for patients, and through simulated data.
Statistical data simulation is essential in the development of statistical models and methods as well as in their performance evaluation. To capture complex data structures, in particular for high-dimensional data, a variety of simulation approaches have been introduced including parametric and the so-called plasmode simulations. While there are concerns about the realism of parametrically simulated data, it is widely claimed that plasmodes come very close to reality with some aspects of the "truth'' known. However, there are no explicit guidelines or state-of-the-art on how to perform plasmode data simulations. In the present paper, we first review existing literature and introduce the concept of statistical plasmode simulation. We then discuss advantages and challenges of statistical plasmodes and provide a step-wise procedure for their generation, including key steps to their implementation and reporting. Finally, we illustrate the concept of statistical plasmodes as well as the proposed plasmode generation procedure by means of a public real RNA dataset on breast carcinoma patients.
When estimating quantities and fields that are difficult to measure directly, such as the fluidity of ice, from point data sources, such as satellite altimetry, it is important to solve a numerical inverse problem that is formulated with Bayesian consistency. Otherwise, the resultant probability density function for the difficult to measure quantity or field will not be appropriately clustered around the truth. In particular, the inverse problem should be formulated by evaluating the numerical solution at the true point locations for direct comparison with the point data source. If the data are first fitted to a gridded or meshed field on the computational grid or mesh, and the inverse problem formulated by comparing the numerical solution to the fitted field, the benefits of additional point data values below the grid density will be lost. We demonstrate, with examples in the fields of groundwater hydrology and glaciology, that a consistent formulation can increase the accuracy of results and aid discourse between modellers and observationalists. To do this, we bring point data into the finite element method ecosystem as discontinuous fields on meshes of disconnected vertices. Point evaluation can then be formulated as a finite element interpolation operation (dual-evaluation). This new abstraction is well-suited to automation, including automatic differentiation. We demonstrate this through implementation in Firedrake, which generates highly optimised code for solving PDEs with the finite element method. Our solution integrates with dolfin-adjoint/pyadjoint, allowing PDE-constrained optimisation problems, such as data assimilation, to be solved through forward and adjoint mode automatic differentiation.
Learning on big data brings success for artificial intelligence (AI), but the annotation and training costs are expensive. In future, learning on small data is one of the ultimate purposes of AI, which requires machines to recognize objectives and scenarios relying on small data as humans. A series of machine learning models is going on this way such as active learning, few-shot learning, deep clustering. However, there are few theoretical guarantees for their generalization performance. Moreover, most of their settings are passive, that is, the label distribution is explicitly controlled by one specified sampling scenario. This survey follows the agnostic active sampling under a PAC (Probably Approximately Correct) framework to analyze the generalization error and label complexity of learning on small data using a supervised and unsupervised fashion. With these theoretical analyses, we categorize the small data learning models from two geometric perspectives: the Euclidean and non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) mean representation, where their optimization solutions are also presented and discussed. Later, some potential learning scenarios that may benefit from small data learning are then summarized, and their potential learning scenarios are also analyzed. Finally, some challenging applications such as computer vision, natural language processing that may benefit from learning on small data are also surveyed.
Data processing and analytics are fundamental and pervasive. Algorithms play a vital role in data processing and analytics where many algorithm designs have incorporated heuristics and general rules from human knowledge and experience to improve their effectiveness. Recently, reinforcement learning, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in particular, is increasingly explored and exploited in many areas because it can learn better strategies in complicated environments it is interacting with than statically designed algorithms. Motivated by this trend, we provide a comprehensive review of recent works focusing on utilizing DRL to improve data processing and analytics. First, we present an introduction to key concepts, theories, and methods in DRL. Next, we discuss DRL deployment on database systems, facilitating data processing and analytics in various aspects, including data organization, scheduling, tuning, and indexing. Then, we survey the application of DRL in data processing and analytics, ranging from data preparation, natural language processing to healthcare, fintech, etc. Finally, we discuss important open challenges and future research directions of using DRL in data processing and analytics.
A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.
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