Effect modification occurs when the impact of the treatment on an outcome varies based on the levels of other covariates known as effect modifiers. Modeling of these effect differences is important for etiological goals and for purposes of optimizing treatment. Structural nested mean models (SNMMs) are useful causal models for estimating the potentially heterogeneous effect of a time-varying exposure on the mean of an outcome in the presence of time-varying confounding. In longitudinal health studies, information on many demographic, behavioural, biological, and clinical covariates may be available, among which some might cause heterogeneous treatment effects. A data-driven approach for selecting the effect modifiers of an exposure may be necessary if these effect modifiers are \textit{a priori} unknown and need to be identified. Although variable selection techniques are available in the context of estimating conditional average treatment effects using marginal structural models, or in the context of estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimens, all of these methods consider an outcome measured at a single point in time. In the context of an SNMM for repeated outcomes, we propose a doubly robust penalized G-estimator for the causal effect of a time-varying exposure with a simultaneous selection of effect modifiers and prove the oracle property of our estimator. We conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator in finite samples and for verification of its double-robustness property. Our work is motivated by a study of hemodiafiltration for treating patients with end-stage renal disease at the Centre Hospitalier de l'Universit\'e de Montr\'eal.
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Generative diffusion models have achieved spectacular performance in many areas of generative modeling. While the fundamental ideas behind these models come from non-equilibrium physics, variational inference and stochastic calculus, in this paper we show that many aspects of these models can be understood using the tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Using this reformulation, we show that generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions corresponding to symmetry breaking phenomena. We show that these phase-transitions are always in a mean-field universality class, as they are the result of a self-consistency condition in the generative dynamics. We argue that the critical instability that arises from the phase transitions lies at the heart of their generative capabilities, which are characterized by a set of mean field critical exponents. Furthermore, using the statistical physics of disordered systems, we show that memorization can be understood as a form of critical condensation corresponding to a disordered phase transition. Finally, we show that the dynamic equation of the generative process can be interpreted as a stochastic adiabatic transformation that minimizes the free energy while keeping the system in thermal equilibrium.
In logistic regression modeling, Firth's modified estimator is widely used to address the issue of data separation, which results in the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. Firth's modified estimator can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimator in which Jeffreys' prior is adopted as the penalty term. Despite its widespread use in practice, the formal verification of the corresponding estimate's existence has not been established. In this study, we establish the existence theorem of Firth's modified estimate in binomial logistic regression models, assuming only the full column rankness of the design matrix. We also discuss other binomial regression models obtained through alternating link functions and prove the existence of similar penalized maximum likelihood estimates for such models.
Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under weak assumptions and can often be applied to problems even when nonasymptotic inference is impossible. This paper introduces time-uniform analogues of such asymptotic confidence intervals, adding to the literature on confidence sequences (CS) -- sequences of confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over time -- which provide valid inference at arbitrary stopping times and incur no penalties for "peeking" at the data, unlike classical confidence intervals which require the sample size to be fixed in advance. Existing CSs in the literature are nonasymptotic, enjoying finite-sample guarantees but not the aforementioned broad applicability of asymptotic confidence intervals. This work provides a definition for "asymptotic CSs" and a general recipe for deriving them. Asymptotic CSs forgo nonasymptotic validity for CLT-like versatility and (asymptotic) time-uniform guarantees. While the CLT approximates the distribution of a sample average by that of a Gaussian for a fixed sample size, we use strong invariance principles (stemming from the seminal 1960s work of Strassen) to uniformly approximate the entire sample average process by an implicit Gaussian process. As an illustration, we derive asymptotic CSs for the average treatment effect in observational studies (for which nonasymptotic bounds are essentially impossible to derive even in the fixed-time regime) as well as randomized experiments, enabling causal inference in sequential environments.
This work presents a comparative review and classification between some well-known thermodynamically consistent models of hydrogel behavior in a large deformation setting, specifically focusing on solvent absorption/desorption and its impact on mechanical deformation and network swelling. The proposed discussion addresses formulation aspects, general mathematical classification of the governing equations, and numerical implementation issues based on the finite element method. The theories are presented in a unified framework demonstrating that, despite not being evident in some cases, all of them follow equivalent thermodynamic arguments. A detailed numerical analysis is carried out where Taylor-Hood elements are employed in the spatial discretization to satisfy the inf-sup condition and to prevent spurious numerical oscillations. The resulting discrete problems are solved using the FEniCS platform through consistent variational formulations, employing both monolithic and staggered approaches. We conduct benchmark tests on various hydrogel structures, demonstrating that major differences arise from the chosen volumetric response of the hydrogel. The significance of this choice is frequently underestimated in the state-of-the-art literature but has been shown to have substantial implications on the resulting hydrogel behavior.
This study introduces a reduced-order model (ROM) for analyzing the transient diffusion-deformation of hydrogels. The full-order model (FOM) describing hydrogel transient behavior consists of a coupled system of partial differential equations in which chemical potential and displacements are coupled. This system is formulated in a monolithic fashion and solved using the Finite Element Method (FEM). The ROM employs proper orthogonal decomposition as a model order reduction approach. We test the ROM performance through benchmark tests on hydrogel swelling behavior and a case study simulating co-axial printing. Finally, we embed the ROM into an optimization problem to identify the model material parameters of the coupled problem using full-field data. We verify that the ROM can predict hydrogels' diffusion-deformation evolution and material properties, significantly reducing computation time compared to the FOM. The results demonstrate the ROM's accuracy and computational efficiency. This work paths the way towards advanced practical applications of ROMs, e.g., in the context of feedback error control in hydrogel 3D printing.
This article aims to provide approximate solutions for the non-linear collision-induced breakage equation using two different semi-analytical schemes, i.e., variational iteration method (VIM) and optimized decomposition method (ODM). The study also includes the detailed convergence analysis and error estimation for ODM in the case of product collisional ($K(\epsilon,\rho)=\epsilon\rho$) and breakage ($b(\epsilon,\rho,\sigma)=\frac{2}{\rho}$) kernels with an exponential decay initial condition. By contrasting estimated concentration function and moments with exact solutions, the novelty of the suggested approaches is presented considering three numerical examples. Interestingly, in one case, VIM provides a closed-form solution, however, finite term series solutions obtained via both schemes supply a great approximation for the concentration function and moments.
In logistic regression modeling, Firth's modified estimator is widely used to address the issue of data separation, which results in the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. Firth's modified estimator can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimator in which Jeffreys' prior is adopted as the penalty term. Despite its widespread use in practice, the formal verification of the corresponding estimate's existence has not been established. In this study, we establish the existence theorem of Firth's modified estimate in binomial logistic regression models, assuming only the full column rankness of the design matrix. We also discuss multinomial logistic regression models. Unlike the binomial regression case, we show through an example that the Jeffreys-prior penalty term does not necessarily diverge to negative infinity as the parameter diverges.
Solutions to many important partial differential equations satisfy bounds constraints, but approximations computed by finite element or finite difference methods typically fail to respect the same conditions. Chang and Nakshatrala enforce such bounds in finite element methods through the solution of variational inequalities rather than linear variational problems. Here, we provide a theoretical justification for this method, including higher-order discretizations. We prove an abstract best approximation result for the linear variational inequality and estimates showing that bounds-constrained polynomials provide comparable approximation power to standard spaces. For any unconstrained approximation to a function, there exists a constrained approximation which is comparable in the $W^{1,p}$ norm. In practice, one cannot efficiently represent and manipulate the entire family of bounds-constrained polynomials, but applying bounds constraints to the coefficients of a polynomial in the Bernstein basis guarantees those constraints on the polynomial. Although our theoretical results do not guaruntee high accuracy for this subset of bounds-constrained polynomials, numerical results indicate optimal orders of accuracy for smooth solutions and sharp resolution of features in convection-diffusion problems, all subject to bounds constraints.
Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI methods have made use of neural networks (NN) to provide approximate, yet expressive constructs for the unavailable likelihood function and the posterior distribution. However, they do not generally achieve an optimal trade-off between accuracy and computational demand. In this work, we propose an alternative that provides both approximations to the likelihood and the posterior distribution, using structured mixtures of probability distributions. Our approach produces accurate posterior inference when compared to state-of-the-art NN-based SBI methods, while exhibiting a much smaller computational footprint. We illustrate our results on several benchmark models from the SBI literature.
We propose a notion of causal influence that describes the `intrinsic' part of the contribution of a node on a target node in a DAG. By recursively writing each node as a function of the upstream noise terms, we separate the intrinsic information added by each node from the one obtained from its ancestors. To interpret the intrinsic information as a {\it causal} contribution, we consider `structure-preserving interventions' that randomize each node in a way that mimics the usual dependence on the parents and does not perturb the observed joint distribution. To get a measure that is invariant with respect to relabelling nodes we use Shapley based symmetrization and show that it reduces in the linear case to simple ANOVA after resolving the target node into noise variables. We describe our contribution analysis for variance and entropy, but contributions for other target metrics can be defined analogously. The code is available in the package gcm of the open source library DoWhy.
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