This article provides a critical review of the main methods used to produce conservative estimators of probabilities of rare events, or critical failures, for reliability and certification studies in the broadest sense. These probabilities must theoretically be calculated from simulations of (certified) numerical models, but which typically suffer from prohibitive computational costs. This occurs frequently, for instance, for complex and critical industrial systems. We focus therefore in adapting the common use of surrogates to replace these numerical models, the aim being to offer a high level of confidence in the results. We suggest avenues of research to improve the guarantees currently reachable.
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The high dimensional nature of genomics data complicates feature selection, in particular in low sample size studies - not uncommon in clinical prediction settings. It is widely recognized that complementary data on the features, `co-data', may improve results. Examples are prior feature groups or p-values from a related study. Such co-data are ubiquitous in genomics settings due to the availability of public repositories. Yet, the uptake of learning methods that structurally use such co-data is limited. We review guided adaptive shrinkage methods: a class of regression-based learners that use co-data to adapt the shrinkage parameters, crucial for the performance of those learners. We discuss technical aspects, but also the applicability in terms of types of co-data that can be handled. This class of methods is contrasted with several others. In particular, group-adaptive shrinkage is compared with the better-known sparse group-lasso by evaluating feature selection. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the guided shrinkage methodology by showing how to `do-it-yourself': we integrate implementations of a co-data learner and the spike-and-slab prior for the purpose of improving feature selection in genetics studies.
Whether or not the Kronecker coefficients of the symmetric group count some set of combinatorial objects is a longstanding open question. In this work we show that a given Kronecker coefficient is proportional to the rank of a projector that can be measured efficiently using a quantum computer. In other words a Kronecker coefficient counts the dimension of the vector space spanned by the accepting witnesses of a QMA verifier, where QMA is the quantum analogue of NP. This implies that approximating the Kronecker coefficients to within a given relative error is not harder than a certain natural class of quantum approximate counting problems that captures the complexity of estimating thermal properties of quantum many-body systems. A second consequence is that deciding positivity of Kronecker coefficients is contained in QMA, complementing a recent NP-hardness result of Ikenmeyer, Mulmuley and Walter. We obtain similar results for the related problem of approximating row sums of the character table of the symmetric group. Finally, we discuss an efficient quantum algorithm that approximates normalized Kronecker coefficients to inverse-polynomial additive error.
This manuscript derives locally weighted ensemble Kalman methods from the point of view of ensemble-based function approximation. This is done by using pointwise evaluations to build up a local linear or quadratic approximation of a function, tapering off the effect of distant particles via local weighting. This introduces a candidate method (the locally weighted Ensemble Kalman method for inversion) with the motivation of combining some of the strengths of the particle filter (ability to cope with nonlinear maps and non-Gaussian distributions) and the Ensemble Kalman filter (no filter degeneracy).
This article offers a comprehensive treatment of polynomial functional regression, culminating in the establishment of a novel finite sample bound. This bound encompasses various aspects, including general smoothness conditions, capacity conditions, and regularization techniques. In doing so, it extends and generalizes several findings from the context of linear functional regression as well. We also provide numerical evidence that using higher order polynomial terms can lead to an improved performance.
Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, the loss ignores misspecification, where models are imperfect. Parameter uncertainties from Bayesian regression are thus significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. This is particularly problematic when building models of low- noise, or near-deterministic, calculations, as the main source of uncertainty is neglected. We analyze the generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show posterior distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergent generalization error and design an ansatz that respects this constraint, which for linear models incurs minimal overhead. This is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors where existing schemes fail, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in computational workflows.
This paper presents a regularized recursive identification algorithm with simultaneous on-line estimation of both the model parameters and the algorithms hyperparameters. A new kernel is proposed to facilitate the algorithm development. The performance of this novel scheme is compared with that of the recursive least squares algorithm in simulation.
The unique solvability and error analysis of the original Lagrange multiplier approach proposed in [8] for gradient flows is studied in this paper. We identify a necessary and sufficient condition that must be satisfied for the nonlinear algebraic equation arising from the original Lagrange multiplier approach to admit a unique solution in the neighborhood of its exact solution, and propose a modified Lagrange multiplier approach so that the computation can continue even if the aforementioned condition is not satisfied. Using Cahn-Hilliard equation as an example, we prove rigorously the unique solvability and establish optimal error estimates of a second-order Lagrange multiplier scheme assuming this condition and that the time step is sufficient small. We also present numerical results to demonstrate that the modified Lagrange multiplier approach is much more robust and can use much larger time step than the original Lagrange multiplier approach.
We study the properties of a family of distances between functions of a single variable. These distances are examples of integral probability metrics, and have been used previously for comparing probability measures on the line; special cases include the Earth Mover's Distance and the Kolmogorov Metric. We examine their properties for general signals, proving that they are robust to a broad class of deformations. We also establish corresponding robustness results for the induced sliced distances between multivariate functions. Finally, we establish error bounds for approximating the univariate metrics from finite samples, and prove that these approximations are robust to additive Gaussian noise. The results are illustrated in numerical experiments, which include comparisons with Wasserstein distances.
The complex challenge of detecting sarcasm in Arabic speech on social media is increased by the language diversity and the nature of sarcastic expressions. There is a significant gap in the capability of existing models to effectively interpret sarcasm in Arabic, which mandates the necessity for more sophisticated and precise detection methods. In this paper, we investigate the impact of a fundamental preprocessing component on sarcasm speech detection. While emojis play a crucial role in mitigating the absence effect of body language and facial expressions in modern communication, their impact on automated text analysis, particularly in sarcasm detection, remains underexplored. We investigate the impact of emoji exclusion from datasets on the performance of sarcasm detection models in social media content for Arabic as a vocabulary-super rich language. This investigation includes the adaptation and enhancement of AraBERT pre-training models, specifically by excluding emojis, to improve sarcasm detection capabilities. We use AraBERT pre-training to refine the specified models, demonstrating that the removal of emojis can significantly boost the accuracy of sarcasm detection. This approach facilitates a more refined interpretation of language, eliminating the potential confusion introduced by non-textual elements. The evaluated AraBERT models, through the focused strategy of emoji removal, adeptly navigate the complexities of Arabic sarcasm. This study establishes new benchmarks in Arabic natural language processing and presents valuable insights for social media platforms.
Challenges to reproducibility and replicability have gained widespread attention, driven by large replication projects with lukewarm success rates. A nascent work has emerged developing algorithms to estimate the replicability of published findings. The current study explores ways in which AI-enabled signals of confidence in research might be integrated into the literature search. We interview 17 PhD researchers about their current processes for literature search and ask them to provide feedback on a replicability estimation tool. Our findings suggest that participants tend to confuse replicability with generalizability and related concepts. Information about replicability can support researchers throughout the research design processes. However, the use of AI estimation is debatable due to the lack of explainability and transparency. The ethical implications of AI-enabled confidence assessment must be further studied before such tools could be widely accepted. We discuss implications for the design of technological tools to support scholarly activities and advance replicability.
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