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Outcome phenotype measurement error is rarely corrected in comparative effect estimation studies in observational pharmacoepidemiology. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) is a misclassification correction method that algebraically adjusts person counts in exposure-outcome contingency tables to reflect the magnitude of misclassification. The extent QBA minimizes bias is unclear because few systematic evaluations have been reported. We empirically evaluated QBA impact on odds ratios (OR) in several comparative effect estimation scenarios. We estimated non-differential and differential phenotype errors with internal validation studies using a probabilistic reference. Further, we synthesized an analytic space defined by outcome incidence, uncorrected ORs, and phenotype errors to identify which combinations produce invalid results indicative of input errors. We evaluated impact with relative bias [(OR-ORQBA)]/OR*100%]. Results were considered invalid if any contingency table cell was corrected to a negative number. Empirical bias correction was greatest in lower incidence scenarios where uncorrected ORs were larger. Similarly, synthetic bias correction was greater in lower incidence settings with larger uncorrected estimates. The invalid proportion of synthetic scenarios increased as uncorrected estimates increased. Results were invalid in common, low incidence scenarios indicating problematic inputs. This demonstrates the importance of accurately and precisely estimating phenotype errors before implementing QBA in comparative effect estimation studies.

This paper presents EnergyAnalyzer, a code-level static analysis tool for estimating the energy consumption of embedded software based on statically predictable hardware events. The tool utilises techniques usually used for worst-case execution time (WCET) analysis together with bespoke energy models developed for two predictable architectures - the ARM Cortex-M0 and the Gaisler LEON3 - to perform energy usage analysis. EnergyAnalyzer has been applied in various use cases, such as selecting candidates for an optimised convolutional neural network, analysing the energy consumption of a camera pill prototype, and analysing the energy consumption of satellite communications software. The tool was developed as part of a larger project called TeamPlay, which aimed to provide a toolchain for developing embedded applications where energy properties are first-class citizens, allowing the developer to reflect directly on these properties at the source code level. The analysis capabilities of EnergyAnalyzer are validated across a large number of benchmarks for the two target architectures and the results show that the statically estimated energy consumption has, with a few exceptions, less than 1% difference compared to the underlying empirical energy models which have been validated on real hardware.

Empowering language is important in many real-world contexts, from education to workplace dynamics to healthcare. Though language technologies are growing more prevalent in these contexts, empowerment has not been studied in NLP, and moreover, it is inherently challenging to operationalize because of its subtle, implicit nature. This work presents the first computational exploration of empowering language. We first define empowerment detection as a new task, grounding it in linguistic and social psychology literature. We then crowdsource a novel dataset of Reddit posts labeled for empowerment, reasons why these posts are empowering to readers, and the social relationships between posters and readers. Our preliminary analyses show that this dataset, which we call TalkUp, can be used to train language models that capture empowering and disempowering language. More broadly, as it is rich with the ambiguities and diverse interpretations of real-world language, TalkUp provides an avenue to explore implication, presuppositions, and how social context influences the meaning of language.

Detecting factual errors in summaries has been an important and challenging subject in summarization research. Inspired by the emergent ability of large language models (LLMs), we explore evaluating factual consistency of summaries by directly prompting LLMs. We present a comprehensive empirical study to assess the ability of LLMs as factual consistency evaluators, which consists of (1) analyzing different LLMs such as the GPT model series and Flan-T5; (2) investigating a variety of prompting methods including vanilla prompting, chain-of-thought prompting, and a sentence-by-sentence prompting method to tackle long summaries; and (3) evaluating on diverse summaries generated by multiple summarization systems, ranging from pre-transformer methods to SOTA pretrained models. Our experiments demonstrate that prompting LLMs is able to outperform the previous best factuality systems in all settings, by up to 12.2 absolute points in terms of the binary classification accuracy on inconsistency detection.

Cognitive scientists believe adaptable intelligent agents like humans perform reasoning through learned causal mental simulations of agents and environments. The problem of learning such simulations is called predictive world modeling. Recently, reinforcement learning (RL) agents leveraging world models have achieved SOTA performance in game environments. However, understanding how to apply the world modeling approach in complex real-world environments relevant to mobile robots remains an open question. In this paper, we present a framework for learning a probabilistic predictive world model for real-world road environments. We implement the model using a hierarchical VAE (HVAE) capable of predicting a diverse set of fully observed plausible worlds from accumulated sensor observations. While prior HVAE methods require complete states as ground truth for learning, we present a novel sequential training method to allow HVAEs to learn to predict complete states from partially observed states only. We experimentally demonstrate accurate spatial structure prediction of deterministic regions achieving 96.21 IoU, and close the gap to perfect prediction by 62% for stochastic regions using the best prediction. By extending HVAEs to cases where complete ground truth states do not exist, we facilitate continual learning of spatial prediction as a step towards realizing explainable and comprehensive predictive world models for real-world mobile robotics applications. Code is available at //github.com/robin-karlsson0/predictive-world-models.

Deep learning-based approaches have achieved remarkable performance in single-image denoising. However, training denoising models typically requires a large amount of data, which can be difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. Furthermore, synthetic noise used in the past has often produced significant differences compared to real-world noise due to the complexity of the latter and the poor modeling ability of noise distributions of Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) models, resulting in residual noise and artifacts within denoising models. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method for synthesizing realistic noise using diffusion models. This approach enables us to generate large amounts of high-quality data for training denoising models by controlling camera settings to simulate different environmental conditions and employing guided multi-scale content information to ensure that our method is more capable of generating real noise with multi-frequency spatial correlations. In particular, we design an inversion mechanism for the setting, which extends our method to more public datasets without setting information. Based on the noise dataset we synthesized, we have conducted sufficient experiments on multiple benchmarks, and experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple benchmarks and metrics, demonstrating its effectiveness in synthesizing realistic noise for training denoising models.

We construct bootstrap confidence intervals for a monotone regression function. It has been shown that the ordinary nonparametric bootstrap, based on the nonparametric least squares estimator (LSE) $\hat f_n$ is inconsistent in this situation. We show, however, that a consistent bootstrap can be based on the smoothed $\hat f_n$, to be called the SLSE (Smoothed Least Squares Estimator). The asymptotic pointwise distribution of the SLSE is derived. The confidence intervals, based on the smoothed bootstrap, are compared to intervals based on the (not necessarily monotone) Nadaraya Watson estimator and the effect of Studentization is investigated. We also give a method for automatic bandwidth choice, correcting work in Sen and Xu (2015). The procedure is illustrated using a well known dataset related to climate change.

Intensive longitudinal (IL) data are increasingly prevalent in psychological science, coinciding with technological advancements that make it simple to deploy study designs such as daily diary and ecological momentary assessments. IL data are characterized by a rapid rate of data collection (1+ collections per day), over a period of time, allowing for the capture of the dynamics that underlie psychological and behavioral processes. One powerful framework for analyzing IL data is state-space modeling, where observed variables are considered measurements for underlying states (i.e., latent variables) that change together over time. However, state-space modeling has typically relied on continuous measurements, whereas psychological data often comes in the form of ordinal measurements such as Likert scale items. In this manuscript, we develop a general estimating approach for state-space models with ordinal measurements, specifically focusing on a graded response model for Likert scale items. We evaluate the performance of our model and estimator against that of the commonly used ``linear approximation'' model, which treats ordinal measurements as though they are continuous. We find that our model resulted in unbiased estimates of the state dynamics, while the linear approximation resulted in strongly biased estimates of the state dynamics

Learning on big data brings success for artificial intelligence (AI), but the annotation and training costs are expensive. In future, learning on small data is one of the ultimate purposes of AI, which requires machines to recognize objectives and scenarios relying on small data as humans. A series of machine learning models is going on this way such as active learning, few-shot learning, deep clustering. However, there are few theoretical guarantees for their generalization performance. Moreover, most of their settings are passive, that is, the label distribution is explicitly controlled by one specified sampling scenario. This survey follows the agnostic active sampling under a PAC (Probably Approximately Correct) framework to analyze the generalization error and label complexity of learning on small data using a supervised and unsupervised fashion. With these theoretical analyses, we categorize the small data learning models from two geometric perspectives: the Euclidean and non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) mean representation, where their optimization solutions are also presented and discussed. Later, some potential learning scenarios that may benefit from small data learning are then summarized, and their potential learning scenarios are also analyzed. Finally, some challenging applications such as computer vision, natural language processing that may benefit from learning on small data are also surveyed.

Estimating human pose and shape from monocular images is a long-standing problem in computer vision. Since the release of statistical body models, 3D human mesh recovery has been drawing broader attention. With the same goal of obtaining well-aligned and physically plausible mesh results, two paradigms have been developed to overcome challenges in the 2D-to-3D lifting process: i) an optimization-based paradigm, where different data terms and regularization terms are exploited as optimization objectives; and ii) a regression-based paradigm, where deep learning techniques are embraced to solve the problem in an end-to-end fashion. Meanwhile, continuous efforts are devoted to improving the quality of 3D mesh labels for a wide range of datasets. Though remarkable progress has been achieved in the past decade, the task is still challenging due to flexible body motions, diverse appearances, complex environments, and insufficient in-the-wild annotations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first survey to focus on the task of monocular 3D human mesh recovery. We start with the introduction of body models and then elaborate recovery frameworks and training objectives by providing in-depth analyses of their strengths and weaknesses. We also summarize datasets, evaluation metrics, and benchmark results. Open issues and future directions are discussed in the end, hoping to motivate researchers and facilitate their research in this area. A regularly updated project page can be found at //github.com/tinatiansjz/hmr-survey.