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Challenges to reproducibility and replicability have gained widespread attention, driven by large replication projects with lukewarm success rates. A nascent work has emerged developing algorithms to estimate the replicability of published findings. The current study explores ways in which AI-enabled signals of confidence in research might be integrated into the literature search. We interview 17 PhD researchers about their current processes for literature search and ask them to provide feedback on a replicability estimation tool. Our findings suggest that participants tend to confuse replicability with generalizability and related concepts. Information about replicability can support researchers throughout the research design processes. However, the use of AI estimation is debatable due to the lack of explainability and transparency. The ethical implications of AI-enabled confidence assessment must be further studied before such tools could be widely accepted. We discuss implications for the design of technological tools to support scholarly activities and advance replicability.

We propose an abstract conceptual framework for analysing complex security systems using a new notion of modes and mode transitions. A mode is an independent component of a system with its own objectives, monitoring data, algorithms, and scope and limits. The behaviour of a mode, including its transitions to other modes, is determined by interpretations of the mode's monitoring data in the light of its objectives and capabilities -- these interpretations we call beliefs. We formalise the conceptual framework mathematically and, by quantifying and visualising beliefs in higher-dimensional geometric spaces, we argue our models may help both design, analyse and explain systems. The mathematical models are based on simplicial complexes.

While analogies are a common way to evaluate word embeddings in NLP, it is also of interest to investigate whether or not analogical reasoning is a task in itself that can be learned. In this paper, we test several ways to learn basic analogical reasoning, specifically focusing on analogies that are more typical of what is used to evaluate analogical reasoning in humans than those in commonly used NLP benchmarks. Our experiments find that models are able to learn analogical reasoning, even with a small amount of data. We additionally compare our models to a dataset with a human baseline, and find that after training, models approach human performance.

A change point detection (CPD) framework assisted by a predictive machine learning model called "Predict and Compare" is introduced and characterised in relation to other state-of-the-art online CPD routines which it outperforms in terms of false positive rate and out-of-control average run length. The method's focus is on improving standard methods from sequential analysis such as the CUSUM rule in terms of these quality measures. This is achieved by replacing typically used trend estimation functionals such as the running mean with more sophisticated predictive models (Predict step), and comparing their prognosis with actual data (Compare step). The two models used in the Predict step are the ARIMA model and the LSTM recursive neural network. However, the framework is formulated in general terms, so as to allow the use of other prediction or comparison methods than those tested here. The power of the method is demonstrated in a tribological case study in which change points separating the run-in, steady-state, and divergent wear phases are detected in the regime of very few false positives.

With the recent success of generative models in image and text, the evaluation of generative models has gained a lot of attention. Whereas most generative models are compared in terms of scalar values such as Frechet Inception Distance (FID) or Inception Score (IS), in the last years (Sajjadi et al., 2018) proposed a definition of precision-recall curve to characterize the closeness of two distributions. Since then, various approaches to precision and recall have seen the light (Kynkaanniemi et al., 2019; Naeem et al., 2020; Park & Kim, 2023). They center their attention on the extreme values of precision and recall, but apart from this fact, their ties are elusive. In this paper, we unify most of these approaches under the same umbrella, relying on the work of (Simon et al., 2019). Doing so, we were able not only to recover entire curves, but also to expose the sources of the accounted pitfalls of the concerned metrics. We also provide consistency results that go well beyond the ones presented in the corresponding literature. Last, we study the different behaviors of the curves obtained experimentally.

We study the potential of noisy labels y to pretrain semantic segmentation models in a multi-modal learning framework for geospatial applications. Specifically, we propose a novel Cross-modal Sample Selection method (CromSS) that utilizes the class distributions P^{(d)}(x,c) over pixels x and classes c modelled by multiple sensors/modalities d of a given geospatial scene. Consistency of predictions across sensors $d$ is jointly informed by the entropy of P^{(d)}(x,c). Noisy label sampling we determine by the confidence of each sensor d in the noisy class label, P^{(d)}(x,c=y(x)). To verify the performance of our approach, we conduct experiments with Sentinel-1 (radar) and Sentinel-2 (optical) satellite imagery from the globally-sampled SSL4EO-S12 dataset. We pair those scenes with 9-class noisy labels sourced from the Google Dynamic World project for pretraining. Transfer learning evaluations (downstream task) on the DFC2020 dataset confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method for remote sensing image segmentation.

We present MULTIGAIN 2.0, a major extension to the controller synthesis tool MULTIGAIN, built on top of the probabilistic model checker PRISM. This new version extends MULTIGAIN's multi-objective capabilities, by allowing for the formal verification and synthesis of controllers for probabilistic systems with multi-dimensional long-run average reward structures, steady-state constraints, and linear temporal logic properties. Additionally, MULTIGAIN 2.0 can modify the underlying linear program to prevent unbounded-memory and other unintuitive solutions and visualizes Pareto curves, in the two- and three-dimensional cases, to facilitate trade-off analysis in multi-objective scenarios.

We develop an inferential toolkit for analyzing object-valued responses, which correspond to data situated in general metric spaces, paired with Euclidean predictors within the conformal framework. To this end we introduce conditional profile average transport costs, where we compare distance profiles that correspond to one-dimensional distributions of probability mass falling into balls of increasing radius through the optimal transport cost when moving from one distance profile to another. The average transport cost to transport a given distance profile to all others is crucial for statistical inference in metric spaces and underpins the proposed conditional profile scores. A key feature of the proposed approach is to utilize the distribution of conditional profile average transport costs as conformity score for general metric space-valued responses, which facilitates the construction of prediction sets by the split conformal algorithm. We derive the uniform convergence rate of the proposed conformity score estimators and establish asymptotic conditional validity for the prediction sets. The finite sample performance for synthetic data in various metric spaces demonstrates that the proposed conditional profile score outperforms existing methods in terms of both coverage level and size of the resulting prediction sets, even in the special case of scalar and thus Euclidean responses. We also demonstrate the practical utility of conditional profile scores for network data from New York taxi trips and for compositional data reflecting energy sourcing of U.S. states.

Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.