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A major barrier to deploying current machine learning models lies in their non-reliability to dataset shifts. To resolve this problem, most existing studies attempted to transfer stable information to unseen environments. Particularly, independent causal mechanisms-based methods proposed to remove mutable causal mechanisms via the do-operator. Compared to previous methods, the obtained stable predictors are more effective in identifying stable information. However, a key question remains: which subset of this whole stable information should the model transfer, in order to achieve optimal generalization ability? To answer this question, we present a comprehensive minimax analysis from a causal perspective. Specifically, we first provide a graphical condition for the whole stable set to be optimal. When this condition fails, we surprisingly find with an example that this whole stable set, although can fully exploit stable information, is not the optimal one to transfer. To identify the optimal subset under this case, we propose to estimate the worst-case risk with a novel optimization scheme over the intervention functions on mutable causal mechanisms. We then propose an efficient algorithm to search for the subset with minimal worst-case risk, based on a newly defined equivalence relation between stable subsets. Compared to the exponential cost of exhaustively searching over all subsets, our searching strategy enjoys a polynomial complexity. The effectiveness and efficiency of our methods are demonstrated on synthetic data and the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

Restricted mean survival time (RMST) is an intuitive summary statistic for time-to-event random variables, and can be used for measuring treatment effects. Compared to hazard ratio, its estimation procedure is robust against the non-proportional hazards assumption. We propose nonparametric Bayeisan (BNP) estimators for RMST using a dependent stick-breaking process prior mixture model that adjusts for mixed-type covariates. The proposed Bayesian estimators can yield both group-level causal estimate and subject-level predictions. Besides, we propose a novel dependent stick-breaking process prior that on average results in narrower credible intervals while maintaining similar coverage probability compared to a dependent probit stick-breaking process prior. We conduct simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed BNP RMST estimators compared to existing frequentist approaches and under different Bayesian modeling choices. The proposed framework is applied to estimate the treatment effect of an immuno therapy among KRAS wild-type colorectal cancer patients.

Propensity score matching (PSM) and augmented inverse propensity weighting (AIPW) are widely used in observational studies to estimate causal effects. The two approaches present complementary features. The AIPW estimator is doubly robust and locally efficient but can be unstable when the propensity scores are close to zero or one due to weighting by the inverse of the propensity score. On the other hand, PSM circumvents the instability of propensity score weighting but it hinges on the correctness of the propensity score model and cannot attain the semiparametric efficiency bound. Besides, the fixed number of matches, K, renders PSM nonsmooth and thus invalidates standard nonparametric bootstrap inference. This article presents novel augmented match weighted (AMW) estimators that combine the advantages of matching and weighting estimators. AMW adheres to the form of AIPW for its double robustness and local efficiency but it mitigates the instability due to weighting. We replace inverse propensity weights with matching weights resulting from PSM with unfixed K. Meanwhile, we propose a new cross-validation procedure to select K that minimizes the mean squared error anchored around an unbiased estimator of the causal estimand. Besides, we derive the limiting distribution for the AMW estimators showing that they enjoy the double robustness property and can achieve the semiparametric efficiency bound if both nuisance models are correct. As a byproduct of unfixed K which smooths the AMW estimators, nonparametric bootstrap can be adopted for variance estimation and inference. Furthermore, simulation studies and real data applications support that the AMW estimators are stable with extreme propensity scores and their variances can be obtained by naive bootstrap.

Survival analysis is the problem of estimating probability distributions for future event times, which can be seen as a problem in uncertainty quantification. Although there are fundamental theories on strictly proper scoring rules for uncertainty quantification, little is known about those for survival analysis. In this paper, we investigate extensions of four major strictly proper scoring rules for survival analysis and we prove that these extensions are proper under certain conditions, which arise from the discretization of the estimation of probability distributions. We also compare the estimation performances of these extended scoring rules by using real datasets, and the extensions of the logarithmic score and the Brier score performed the best.

We analyze to what extent final users can infer information about the level of protection of their data when the data obfuscation mechanism is a priori unknown to them (the so-called ''black-box'' scenario). In particular, we delve into the investigation of two notions of local differential privacy (LDP), namely {\epsilon}-LDP and R\'enyi LDP. On one hand, we prove that, without any assumption on the underlying distributions, it is not possible to have an algorithm able to infer the level of data protection with provable guarantees; this result also holds for the central versions of the two notions of DP considered. On the other hand, we demonstrate that, under reasonable assumptions (namely, Lipschitzness of the involved densities on a closed interval), such guarantees exist and can be achieved by a simple histogram-based estimator. We validate our results experimentally and we note that, on a particularly well-behaved distribution (namely, the Laplace noise), our method gives even better results than expected, in the sense that in practice the number of samples needed to achieve the desired confidence is smaller than the theoretical bound, and the estimation of {\epsilon} is more precise than predicted.

This paper deals with variable selection in multivariate linear regression model when the data are observations on a spatial domain being a grid of sites in $\mathbb{Z}^d$ with $d\geqslant 2$. We use a criterion that allows to characterize the subset of relevant variables as depending on two parameters, and we propose estimators for these parameters based on spatially dependent observations. We prove the consistency, under specified assumptions, of the method thus proposed. A simulation study made in order to assess the finite-sample behaviour of the proposed method with comparison to existing ones is presented.

Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often encountered in reliability analysis of complex engineering systems, based on an introduced framework termed Approximate Sampling Target with Post-processing Adjustment (ASTPA), which herein is integrated with and supported by gradient-based Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (HMCMC) methods. The developed techniques in this paper are applicable from low- to high-dimensional stochastic spaces, and the basic idea is to construct a relevant target distribution by weighting the original random variable space through a one-dimensional output likelihood model, using the limit-state function. To sample from this target distribution, we exploit HMCMC algorithms, a family of MCMC methods that adopts physical system dynamics, rather than solely using a proposal probability distribution, to generate distant sequential samples, and we develop a new Quasi-Newton mass preconditioned HMCMC scheme (QNp-HMCMC), which is particularly efficient and suitable for high-dimensional spaces. To eventually compute the rare event probability, an original post-sampling step is devised using an inverse importance sampling procedure based on the already obtained samples. The statistical properties of the estimator are analyzed as well, and the performance of the proposed methodology is examined in detail and compared against Subset Simulation in a series of challenging low- and high-dimensional problems.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are increasingly prevalent in education research, and are often regarded as a gold standard of causal inference. Two main virtues of randomized experiments are that they (1) do not suffer from confounding, thereby allowing for an unbiased estimate of an intervention's causal impact, and (2) allow for design-based inference, meaning that the physical act of randomization largely justifies the statistical assumptions made. However, RCT sample sizes are often small, leading to low precision; in many cases RCT estimates may be too imprecise to guide policy or inform science. Observational studies, by contrast, have strengths and weaknesses complementary to those of RCTs. Observational studies typically offer much larger sample sizes, but may suffer confounding. In many contexts, experimental and observational data exist side by side, allowing the possibility of integrating "big observational data" with "small but high-quality experimental data" to get the best of both. Such approaches hold particular promise in the field of education, where RCT sample sizes are often small due to cost constraints, but automatic collection of observational data, such as in computerized educational technology applications, or in state longitudinal data systems (SLDS) with administrative data on hundreds of thousand of students, has made rich, high-dimensional observational data widely available. We outline an approach that allows one to employ machine learning algorithms to learn from the observational data, and use the resulting models to improve precision in randomized experiments. Importantly, there is no requirement that the machine learning models are "correct" in any sense, and the final experimental results are guaranteed to be exactly unbiased. Thus, there is no danger of confounding biases in the observational data leaking into the experiment.

Computing diverse solutions for a given problem, in particular evolutionary diversity optimisation (EDO), is a hot research topic in the evolutionary computation community. This paper studies the Boolean satisfiability problem (SAT) in the context of EDO. SAT is of great importance in computer science and differs from the other problems studied in EDO literature, such as KP and TSP. SAT is heavily constrained, and the conventional evolutionary operators are inefficient in generating SAT solutions. Our approach avails of the following characteristics of SAT: 1) the possibility of adding more constraints (clauses) to the problem to forbid solutions or to fix variables, and 2) powerful solvers in the literature, such as minisat. We utilise such a solver to construct a diverse set of solutions. Moreover, maximising diversity provides us with invaluable information about the solution space of a given SAT problem, such as how large the feasible region is. In this study, we introduce evolutionary algorithms (EAs) employing a well-known SAT solver to maximise diversity among a set of SAT solutions explicitly. The experimental investigations indicate the introduced algorithms' capability to maximise diversity among the SAT solutions.

Since the 1950s, machine translation (MT) has become one of the important tasks of AI and development, and has experienced several different periods and stages of development, including rule-based methods, statistical methods, and recently proposed neural network-based learning methods. Accompanying these staged leaps is the evaluation research and development of MT, especially the important role of evaluation methods in statistical translation and neural translation research. The evaluation task of MT is not only to evaluate the quality of machine translation, but also to give timely feedback to machine translation researchers on the problems existing in machine translation itself, how to improve and how to optimise. In some practical application fields, such as in the absence of reference translations, the quality estimation of machine translation plays an important role as an indicator to reveal the credibility of automatically translated target languages. This report mainly includes the following contents: a brief history of machine translation evaluation (MTE), the classification of research methods on MTE, and the the cutting-edge progress, including human evaluation, automatic evaluation, and evaluation of evaluation methods (meta-evaluation). Manual evaluation and automatic evaluation include reference-translation based and reference-translation independent participation; automatic evaluation methods include traditional n-gram string matching, models applying syntax and semantics, and deep learning models; evaluation of evaluation methods includes estimating the credibility of human evaluations, the reliability of the automatic evaluation, the reliability of the test set, etc. Advances in cutting-edge evaluation methods include task-based evaluation, using pre-trained language models based on big data, and lightweight optimisation models using distillation techniques.