Sampling-based inference techniques are central to modern cosmological data analysis; these methods, however, scale poorly with dimensionality and typically require approximate or intractable likelihoods. In this paper we describe how Truncated Marginal Neural Ratio Estimation (TMNRE) (a new approach in so-called simulation-based inference) naturally evades these issues, improving the $(i)$ efficiency, $(ii)$ scalability, and $(iii)$ trustworthiness of the inferred posteriors. Using measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), we show that TMNRE can achieve converged posteriors using orders of magnitude fewer simulator calls than conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Remarkably, the required number of samples is effectively independent of the number of nuisance parameters. In addition, a property called \emph{local amortization} allows the performance of rigorous statistical consistency checks that are not accessible to sampling-based methods. TMNRE promises to become a powerful tool for cosmological data analysis, particularly in the context of extended cosmologies, where the timescale required for conventional sampling-based inference methods to converge can greatly exceed that of simple cosmological models such as $\Lambda$CDM. To perform these computations, we use an implementation of TMNRE via the open-source code \texttt{swyft}.
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This paper considers numerical discretization of a nonlocal conservation law modeling vehicular traffic flows involving nonlocal inter-vehicle interactions. The nonlocal model involves an integral over the range measured by a horizon parameter and it recovers the local Lighthill-Richards-Whitham model as the nonlocal horizon parameter goes to zero. Good numerical schemes for simulating these parameterized nonlocal traffic flow models should be robust with respect to the change of the model parameters but this has not been systematically investigated in the literature. We fill this gap through a careful study of a class of finite volume numerical schemes with suitable discretizations of the nonlocal integral, which include several schemes proposed in the literature and their variants. Our main contributions are to demonstrate the asymptotically compatibility of the schemes, which includes both the uniform convergence of the numerical solutions to the unique solution of nonlocal continuum model for a given positive horizon parameter and the convergence to the unique entropy solution of the local model as the mesh size and the nonlocal horizon parameter go to zero simultaneously. It is shown that with the asymptotically compatibility, the schemes can provide robust numerical computation under the changes of the nonlocal horizon parameter.
Sparse linear regression methods including the well-known LASSO and the Dantzig selector have become ubiquitous in the engineering practice, including in medical imaging. Among other tasks, they have been successfully applied for the estimation of neuronal activity from functional magnetic resonance data without prior knowledge of the stimulus or activation timing, utilizing an approximate knowledge of the hemodynamic response to local neuronal activity. These methods work by generating a parametric family of solutions with different sparsity, among which an ultimate choice is made using an information criteria. We propose a novel approach, that instead of selecting a single option from the family of regularized solutions, utilizes the whole family of such sparse regression solutions. Namely, their ensemble provides a first approximation of probability of activation at each time-point, and together with the conditional neuronal activity distributions estimated with the theory of mixtures with varying concentrations, they serve as the inputs to a Bayes classifier eventually deciding on the verity of activation at each time-point. We show in extensive numerical simulations that this new method performs favourably in comparison with standard approaches in a range of realistic scenarios. This is mainly due to the avoidance of overfitting and underfitting that commonly plague the solutions based on sparse regression combined with model selection methods, including the corrected Akaike Information Criterion. This advantage is finally documented in selected fMRI task datasets.
Complex projects developed under the paradigm of model-driven engineering nowadays often involve several interrelated models, which are automatically processed via a multitude of model operations. Modular and incremental construction and execution of such networks of models and model operations are required to accommodate efficient development with potentially large-scale models. The underlying problem is also called Global Model Management. In this report, we propose an approach to modular and incremental Global Model Management via an extension to the existing technique of Generalized Discrimination Networks (GDNs). In addition to further generalizing the notion of query operations employed in GDNs, we adapt the previously query-only mechanism to operations with side effects to integrate model transformation and model synchronization. We provide incremental algorithms for the execution of the resulting extended Generalized Discrimination Networks (eGDNs), as well as a prototypical implementation for a number of example eGDN operations. Based on this prototypical implementation, we experiment with an application scenario from the software development domain to empirically evaluate our approach with respect to scalability and conceptually demonstrate its applicability in a typical scenario. Initial results confirm that the presented approach can indeed be employed to realize efficient Global Model Management in the considered scenario.
Classical methods for acoustic scene mapping require the estimation of time difference of arrival (TDOA) between microphones. Unfortunately, TDOA estimation is very sensitive to reverberation and additive noise. We introduce an unsupervised data-driven approach that exploits the natural structure of the data. Our method builds upon local conformal autoencoders (LOCA) - an offline deep learning scheme for learning standardized data coordinates from measurements. Our experimental setup includes a microphone array that measures the transmitted sound source at multiple locations across the acoustic enclosure. We demonstrate that LOCA learns a representation that is isometric to the spatial locations of the microphones. The performance of our method is evaluated using a series of realistic simulations and compared with other dimensionality-reduction schemes. We further assess the influence of reverberation on the results of LOCA and show that it demonstrates considerable robustness.
In many domains such as transportation and logistics, search and rescue, or cooperative surveillance, tasks are pending to be allocated with the consideration of possible execution uncertainties. Existing task coordination algorithms either ignore the stochastic process or suffer from the computational intensity. Taking advantage of the weakly coupled feature of the problem and the opportunity for coordination in advance, we propose a decentralized auction-based coordination strategy using a newly formulated score function which is generated by forming the problem into task-constrained Markov decision processes (MDPs). The proposed method guarantees convergence and at least 50% optimality in the premise of a submodular reward function. Furthermore, for the implementation on large-scale applications, an approximate variant of the proposed method, namely Deep Auction, is also suggested with the use of neural networks, which is evasive of the troublesome for constructing MDPs. Inspired by the well-known actor-critic architecture, two Transformers are used to map observations to action probabilities and cumulative rewards respectively. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the two proposed approaches in the context of drone deliveries, where the stochastic planning for the drone league is cast into a stochastic price-collecting Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) with time windows. Simulation results are compared with state-of-the-art methods in terms of solution quality, planning efficiency and scalability.
We study the problem of estimating latent population flows from aggregated count data. This problem arises when individual trajectories are not available due to privacy issues or measurement fidelity. Instead, the aggregated observations are measured over discrete-time points, for estimating the population flows among states. Most related studies tackle the problems by learning the transition parameters of a time-homogeneous Markov process. Nonetheless, most real-world population flows can be influenced by various uncertainties such as traffic jam and weather conditions. Thus, in many cases, a time-homogeneous Markov model is a poor approximation of the much more complex population flows. To circumvent this difficulty, we resort to a multi-marginal optimal transport (MOT) formulation that can naturally represent aggregated observations with constrained marginals, and encode time-dependent transition matrices by the cost functions. In particular, we propose to estimate the transition flows from aggregated data by learning the cost functions of the MOT framework, which enables us to capture time-varying dynamic patterns. The experiments demonstrate the improved accuracy of the proposed algorithms than the related methods in estimating several real-world transition flows.
Sequential testing, always-valid $p$-values, and confidence sequences promise flexible statistical inference and on-the-fly decision making. However, unlike fixed-$n$ inference based on asymptotic normality, existing sequential tests either make parametric assumptions and end up under-covering/over-rejecting when these fail or use non-parametric but conservative concentration inequalities and end up over-covering/under-rejecting. To circumvent these issues, we sidestep exact at-least-$\alpha$ coverage and focus on asymptotically exact coverage and asymptotic optimality. That is, we seek sequential tests whose probability of ever rejecting a true hypothesis asymptotically approaches $\alpha$ and whose expected time to reject a false hypothesis approaches a lower bound on all tests with asymptotic coverage at least $\alpha$, both under an appropriate asymptotic regime. We permit observations to be both non-parametric and dependent and focus on testing whether the observations form a martingale difference sequence. We propose the universal sequential probability ratio test (uSPRT), a slight modification to the normal-mixture sequential probability ratio test, where we add a burn-in period and adjust thresholds accordingly. We show that even in this very general setting, the uSPRT is asymptotically optimal under mild generic conditions. We apply the results to stabilized estimating equations to test means, treatment effects, etc. Our results also provide corresponding guarantees for the implied confidence sequences. Numerical simulations verify our guarantees and the benefits of the uSPRT over alternatives.
Augmenting the control arm of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with external data may increase power at the risk of introducing bias. Existing data fusion estimators generally rely on stringent assumptions or may have decreased coverage or power in the presence of bias. Framing the problem as one of data-adaptive experiment selection, potential experiments include the RCT only or the RCT combined with different candidate real-world datasets. To select and analyze the experiment with the optimal bias-variance tradeoff, we develop a novel experiment-selector cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimator (ES-CVTMLE). The ES-CVTMLE uses two bias estimates: 1) a function of the difference in conditional mean outcome under control between the RCT and combined experiments and 2) an estimate of the average treatment effect on a negative control outcome (NCO). We define the asymptotic distribution of the ES-CVTMLE under varying magnitudes of bias and construct confidence intervals by Monte Carlo simulation. In simulations involving violations of identification assumptions, the ES-CVTMLE had better coverage than test-then-pool approaches and an NCO-based bias adjustment approach and higher power than one implementation of a Bayesian dynamic borrowing approach. We further demonstrate the ability of the ES-CVTMLE to distinguish biased from unbiased external controls through a re-analysis of the effect of liraglutide on glycemic control from the LEADER trial. The ES-CVTMLE has the potential to improve power while providing relatively robust inference for future hybrid RCT-RWD studies.
This work investigates the use of a Deep Neural Network (DNN) to perform an estimation of the Weapon Engagement Zone (WEZ) maximum launch range. The WEZ allows the pilot to identify an airspace in which the available missile has a more significant probability of successfully engaging a particular target, i.e., a hypothetical area surrounding an aircraft in which an adversary is vulnerable to a shot. We propose an approach to determine the WEZ of a given missile using 50,000 simulated launches in variate conditions. These simulations are used to train a DNN that can predict the WEZ when the aircraft finds itself on different firing conditions, with a coefficient of determination of 0.99. It provides another procedure concerning preceding research since it employs a non-discretized model, i.e., it considers all directions of the WEZ at once, which has not been done previously. Additionally, the proposed method uses an experimental design that allows for fewer simulation runs, providing faster model training.
Since hardware resources are limited, the objective of training deep learning models is typically to maximize accuracy subject to the time and memory constraints of training and inference. We study the impact of model size in this setting, focusing on Transformer models for NLP tasks that are limited by compute: self-supervised pretraining and high-resource machine translation. We first show that even though smaller Transformer models execute faster per iteration, wider and deeper models converge in significantly fewer steps. Moreover, this acceleration in convergence typically outpaces the additional computational overhead of using larger models. Therefore, the most compute-efficient training strategy is to counterintuitively train extremely large models but stop after a small number of iterations. This leads to an apparent trade-off between the training efficiency of large Transformer models and the inference efficiency of small Transformer models. However, we show that large models are more robust to compression techniques such as quantization and pruning than small models. Consequently, one can get the best of both worlds: heavily compressed, large models achieve higher accuracy than lightly compressed, small models.
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