In this work we propose a semiparametric bivariate copula whose density is defined by a picewise constant function on disjoint squares. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators which reduce to the sample copula under specific conditions. We carry out a full Bayesian analysis of the model and propose a spatial dependent prior distribution for the model parameters. This prior allows the parameters to borrow strength across neighbouring regions to produce smooth posterior estimates. We implement a simulation study and illustrate the performance of our model with a real dataset.
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Safety is critical in autonomous robotic systems. A safe control law ensures forward invariance of a safe set (a subset in the state space). It has been extensively studied regarding how to derive a safe control law with a control-affine analytical dynamic model. However, in complex environments and tasks, it is challenging and time-consuming to obtain a principled analytical model of the system. In these situations, data-driven learning is extensively used and the learned models are encoded in neural networks. How to formally derive a safe control law with Neural Network Dynamic Models (NNDM) remains unclear due to the lack of computationally tractable methods to deal with these black-box functions. In fact, even finding the control that minimizes an objective for NNDM without any safety constraint is still challenging. In this work, we propose MIND-SIS (Mixed Integer for Neural network Dynamic model with Safety Index Synthesis), the first method to derive safe control laws for NNDM. The method includes two parts: 1) SIS: an algorithm for the offline synthesis of the safety index (also called as barrier function), which uses evolutionary methods and 2) MIND: an algorithm for online computation of the optimal and safe control signal, which solves a constrained optimization using a computationally efficient encoding of neural networks. It has been theoretically proved that MIND-SIS guarantees forward invariance and finite convergence. And it has been numerically validated that MIND-SIS achieves safe and optimal control of NNDM. From our experiments, the optimality gap is less than $10^{-8}$, and the safety constraint violation is $0$.
The idea of approximating the Shapley value of an n-person game by Monte Carlo simulation was first suggested by Mann and Shapley (1960) and they also introduced four different heuristical methods to reduce the estimation error. Since 1960, several statistical methods have been developed to reduce the standard deviation of the estimate. In this paper, we develop an algorithm that uses a pair of negatively correlated samples to reduce the variance of the estimate. Although the observations generated are not independent, the sample is ergodic (obeys the strong law of large numbers), hence the name "ergodic sampling". Unlike Shapley and Mann, we do not use heuristics, the algorithm uses a small sample to learn the best ergodic transformation for a given game. We illustrate the algorithm on eight games with different characteristics to test the performance and understand how the proposed algorithm works. The experiments show that this method has at least as low variance as an independent sample, and in five test games, it significantly improves the quality of the estimation, up to 75 percent.
We extend the Deep Galerkin Method (DGM) introduced in Sirignano and Spiliopoulos (2018)} to solve a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that arise in the context of optimal stochastic control and mean field games. First, we consider PDEs where the function is constrained to be positive and integrate to unity, as is the case with Fokker-Planck equations. Our approach involves reparameterizing the solution as the exponential of a neural network appropriately normalized to ensure both requirements are satisfied. This then gives rise to nonlinear a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) where the integral appearing in the equation is handled by a novel application of importance sampling. Secondly, we tackle a number of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations that appear in stochastic optimal control problems. The key contribution is that these equations are approached in their unsimplified primal form which includes an optimization problem as part of the equation. We extend the DGM algorithm to solve for the value function and the optimal control \simultaneously by characterizing both as deep neural networks. Training the networks is performed by taking alternating stochastic gradient descent steps for the two functions, a technique inspired by the policy improvement algorithms (PIA).
Unlike conventional cars, connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) can cross intersections in a lane-free order and utilise the whole area of intersections. This paper presents a minimum-time optimal control problem to centrally control the CAVs to simultaneously cross an intersection in the shortest possible time. Dual problem theory is employed to convexify the constraints of CAVs to avoid collision with each other and with road boundaries. The developed formulation is smooth and solvable by gradient-based algorithms. Simulation results show that the proposed strategy reduces the crossing time of intersections by an average of 52% and 54% as compared to, respectively, the state-of-the-art reservation-based and lane-free methods. Furthermore, the crossing time by the proposed strategy is fixed to a constant value for an intersection regardless of the number of CAVs.
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for log-spacings of top order statistics. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated analytically and found to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent and normally distributed. Also, the finite sample behaviour of the estimators are studied through a simulations theory. The proposed estimators were found to yield low bias and MSE. In addition, the proposed estimators are illustrated through the estimation of the tail index of the underlying distribution of claims from the insurance industry.
Let $X^{(n)}$ be an observation sampled from a distribution $P_{\theta}^{(n)}$ with an unknown parameter $\theta,$ $\theta$ being a vector in a Banach space $E$ (most often, a high-dimensional space of dimension $d$). We study the problem of estimation of $f(\theta)$ for a functional $f:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ of some smoothness $s>0$ based on an observation $X^{(n)}\sim P_{\theta}^{(n)}.$ Assuming that there exists an estimator $\hat \theta_n=\hat \theta_n(X^{(n)})$ of parameter $\theta$ such that $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta)$ is sufficiently close in distribution to a mean zero Gaussian random vector in $E,$ we construct a functional $g:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ such that $g(\hat \theta_n)$ is an asymptotically normal estimator of $f(\theta)$ with $\sqrt{n}$ rate provided that $s>\frac{1}{1-\alpha}$ and $d\leq n^{\alpha}$ for some $\alpha\in (0,1).$ We also derive general upper bounds on Orlicz norm error rates for estimator $g(\hat \theta)$ depending on smoothness $s,$ dimension $d,$ sample size $n$ and the accuracy of normal approximation of $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta).$ In particular, this approach yields asymptotically efficient estimators in some high-dimensional exponential models.
To simulate noisy boson sampling approximating it by only the lower-order multi-boson interferences (e.g., by a smaller number of interfering bosons and classical particles) is very popular idea. I show that the output data from any such classical simulations can be efficiently distinguished from that of the quantum device they try to simulate, even with finite noise in the latter. The distinguishing datasets can be the experimental estimates of some large probabilities, a wide class of such is presented. This is a sequel of \textit{Quantum} \textbf{5}, 423 (2021), where I present more accessible account of the main result enhanced by additional insight on the contribution from the higher-order multi-boson interferences in presence of noise.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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