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In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a formulation is not robust to model mis-specification of its component parts. An alternative approach is to draw inference based on loss functions, where the quantity of interest is defined as a minimizer of some expected loss, and to construct posterior distributions based on the loss-based formulation; this strategy underpins the construction of the Gibbs posterior. We develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach; specifically, we generalize the Bayesian bootstrap, and specify a Dirichlet process model for the distribution of the observables. We implement this using direct prior-to-posterior calculations, but also using predictive sampling. We also study the assessment of posterior validity for non-standard Bayesian calculations. We provide a computationally efficient way to calibrate the scaling parameter in the Gibbs posterior so that it can achieve the desired coverage rate. We show that the developed non-standard Bayesian updating procedures yield valid posterior distributions in terms of consistency and asymptotic normality under model mis-specification. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods can recover the true value of the parameter efficiently and achieve frequentist coverage even when the sample size is small. Finally, we apply our methods to evaluate the causal impact of speed cameras on traffic collisions in England.

Warning: this paper contains content that may be offensive or upsetting. Considering the large amount of content created online by the minute, slang-aware automatic tools are critically needed to promote social good, and assist policymakers and moderators in restricting the spread of offensive language, abuse, and hate speech. Despite the success of large language models and the spontaneous emergence of slang dictionaries, it is unclear how far their combination goes in terms of slang understanding for downstream social good tasks. In this paper, we provide a framework to study different combinations of representation learning models and knowledge resources for a variety of downstream tasks that rely on slang understanding. Our experiments show the superiority of models that have been pre-trained on social media data, while the impact of dictionaries is positive only for static word embeddings. Our error analysis identifies core challenges for slang representation learning, including out-of-vocabulary words, polysemy, variance, and annotation disagreements, which can be traced to characteristics of slang as a quickly evolving and highly subjective language.

Two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event have been recently introduced based on frequentist estimation. The biomarker distribution is decomposed into a probability of positive value and the expected value among positive values. Shared random effects can represent the association structure between the biomarker and the terminal event. The computational burden increases compared to standard joint models with a single regression model for the biomarker. In this context, the frequentist estimation implemented in the R package frailtypack can be challenging for complex models (i.e., large number of parameters and dimension of the random effects). As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian estimation of two-part joint models based on the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm to alleviate the computational burden and fit more complex models. Our simulation studies confirm that INLA provides accurate approximation of posterior estimates and to reduced computation time and variability of estimates compared to frailtypack in the situations considered. We contrast the Bayesian and frequentist approaches in the analysis of two randomized cancer clinical trials (GERCOR and PRIME studies), where INLA has a reduced variability for the association between the biomarker and the risk of event. Moreover, the Bayesian approach was able to characterize subgroups of patients associated with different responses to treatment in the PRIME study. Our study suggests that the Bayesian approach using INLA algorithm enables to fit complex joint models that might be of interest in a wide range of clinical applications.

How do users and communities respond to news from unreliable sources? How does news from these sources change online conversations? In this work, we examine the role of misinformation in sparking political incivility and toxicity on the social media platform Reddit. Utilizing the Google Jigsaw Perspective API to identify toxicity, hate speech, and other forms of incivility, we find that Reddit comments posted in response to misinformation articles are 71.4% more likely to be toxic than comments responding to authentic news articles. Identifying specific instances of commenters' incivility and utilizing an exponential random graph model, we then show that when reacting to a misinformation story, Reddit users are more likely to be toxic to users of different political beliefs than in other settings. Finally, utilizing a zero-inflated negative binomial regression, we identify that as the toxicity of subreddits increases, users are more likely to comment on misinformation-related Reddit submissions.

Recent work in news recommendation has demonstrated that recommenders can over-expose users to articles that support their pre-existing opinions. However, most existing work focuses on a static setting or over a short-time window, leaving open questions about the long-term and dynamic impacts of news recommendations. In this paper, we explore these dynamic impacts through a systematic study of three research questions: 1) How do the news reading behaviors of users change after repeated long-term interactions with recommenders? 2) How do the inherent preferences of users change over time in such a dynamic recommender system? 3) Can the existing SOTA static method alleviate the problem in the dynamic environment? Concretely, we conduct a comprehensive data-driven study through simulation experiments of political polarization in news recommendations based on 40,000 annotated news articles. We find that users are rapidly exposed to more extreme content as the recommender evolves. We also find that a calibration-based intervention can slow down this polarization, but leaves open significant opportunities for future improvements

Our work advances an approach for predicting hate speech in social media, drawing out the critical need to consider the discussions that follow a post to successfully detect when hateful discourse may arise. Using graph transformer networks, coupled with modelling attention and BERT-level natural language processing, our approach can capture context and anticipate upcoming anti-social behaviour. In this paper, we offer a detailed qualitative analysis of this solution for hate speech detection in social networks, leading to insights into where the method has the most impressive outcomes in comparison with competitors and identifying scenarios where there are challenges to achieving ideal performance. Included is an exploration of the kinds of posts that permeate social media today, including the use of hateful images. This suggests avenues for extending our model to be more comprehensive. A key insight is that the focus on reasoning about the concept of context positions us well to be able to support multi-modal analysis of online posts. We conclude with a reflection on how the problem we are addressing relates especially well to the theme of dynamic change, a critical concern for all AI solutions for social impact. We also comment briefly on how mental health well-being can be advanced with our work, through curated content attuned to the extent of hate in posts.

Adaptive enrichment allows for pre-defined patient subgroups of interest to be investigated throughout the course of a clinical trial. Many trials which measure a long-term time-to-event endpoint often also routinely collect repeated measures on biomarkers which may be predictive of the primary endpoint. Although these data may not be leveraged directly to support subgroup selection decisions and early stopping decisions, we aim to make greater use of these data to increase efficiency and improve interim decision making. In this work, we present a joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event data and two methods for creating standardised statistics based on this joint model. We can use the estimates to define enrichment rules and efficacy and futility early stopping rules for a flexible efficient clinical trial with possible enrichment. Under this framework, we show asymptotically that the familywise error rate is protected in the strong sense. To assess the results, we consider a trial for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer where repeated ctDNA measurements are available and the subgroup criteria is defined by patients' ER and HER2 status. Using simulation, we show that incorporating biomarker information leads to accurate subgroup identification and increases in power.

Recent work on interpretability has focused on concept-based explanations, where deep learning models are explained in terms of high-level units of information, referred to as concepts. Concept learning models, however, have been shown to be prone to encoding impurities in their representations, failing to fully capture meaningful features of their inputs. While concept learning lacks metrics to measure such phenomena, the field of disentanglement learning has explored the related notion of underlying factors of variation in the data, with plenty of metrics to measure the purity of such factors. In this paper, we show that such metrics are not appropriate for concept learning and propose novel metrics for evaluating the purity of concept representations in both approaches. We show the advantage of these metrics over existing ones and demonstrate their utility in evaluating the robustness of concept representations and interventions performed on them. In addition, we show their utility for benchmarking state-of-the-art methods from both families and find that, contrary to common assumptions, supervision alone may not be sufficient for pure concept representations.

While existing work in robust deep learning has focused on small pixel-level $\ell_p$ norm-based perturbations, this may not account for perturbations encountered in several real world settings. In many such cases although test data might not be available, broad specifications about the types of perturbations (such as an unknown degree of rotation) may be known. We consider a setup where robustness is expected over an unseen test domain that is not i.i.d. but deviates from the training domain. While this deviation may not be exactly known, its broad characterization is specified a priori, in terms of attributes. We propose an adversarial training approach which learns to generate new samples so as to maximize exposure of the classifier to the attributes-space, without having access to the data from the test domain. Our adversarial training solves a min-max optimization problem, with the inner maximization generating adversarial perturbations, and the outer minimization finding model parameters by optimizing the loss on adversarial perturbations generated from the inner maximization. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach on three types of naturally occurring perturbations -- object-related shifts, geometric transformations, and common image corruptions. Our approach enables deep neural networks to be robust against a wide range of naturally occurring perturbations. We demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach by showing the robustness gains of deep neural networks trained using our adversarial training on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and a new variant of the CLEVR dataset.

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success in computer vision tasks. Existing neural networks mainly operate in the spatial domain with fixed input sizes. For practical applications, images are usually large and have to be downsampled to the predetermined input size of neural networks. Even though the downsampling operations reduce computation and the required communication bandwidth, it removes both redundant and salient information obliviously, which results in accuracy degradation. Inspired by digital signal processing theories, we analyze the spectral bias from the frequency perspective and propose a learning-based frequency selection method to identify the trivial frequency components which can be removed without accuracy loss. The proposed method of learning in the frequency domain leverages identical structures of the well-known neural networks, such as ResNet-50, MobileNetV2, and Mask R-CNN, while accepting the frequency-domain information as the input. Experiment results show that learning in the frequency domain with static channel selection can achieve higher accuracy than the conventional spatial downsampling approach and meanwhile further reduce the input data size. Specifically for ImageNet classification with the same input size, the proposed method achieves 1.41% and 0.66% top-1 accuracy improvements on ResNet-50 and MobileNetV2, respectively. Even with half input size, the proposed method still improves the top-1 accuracy on ResNet-50 by 1%. In addition, we observe a 0.8% average precision improvement on Mask R-CNN for instance segmentation on the COCO dataset.