This work considers estimation and forecasting in a multivariate count time series model based on a copula-type transformation of a Gaussian dynamic factor model. The estimation is based on second-order properties of the count and underlying Gaussian models and applies to the case where the model dimension is larger than the sample length. In addition, novel cross-validation schemes are suggested for model selection. The forecasting is carried out through a particle-based sequential Monte Carlo, leveraging Kalman filtering techniques. A simulation study and an application are also considered.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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We study scalable machine learning models for full event reconstruction in high-energy electron-positron collisions based on a highly granular detector simulation. Particle-flow (PF) reconstruction can be formulated as a supervised learning task using tracks and calorimeter clusters or hits. We compare a graph neural network and kernel-based transformer and demonstrate that both avoid quadratic memory allocation and computational cost while achieving realistic PF reconstruction. We show that hyperparameter tuning on a supercomputer significantly improves the physics performance of the models. We also demonstrate that the resulting model is highly portable across hardware processors, supporting Nvidia, AMD, and Intel Habana cards. Finally, we demonstrate that the model can be trained on highly granular inputs consisting of tracks and calorimeter hits, resulting in a competitive physics performance with the baseline. Datasets and software to reproduce the studies are published following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) principles.
This study focuses on the use of model and data fusion for improving the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) closure model for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions of separated flows. In particular, our goal is to develop of models that not-only assimilate sparse experimental data to improve performance in computational models, but also generalize to unseen cases by recovering classical SA behavior. We achieve our goals using data assimilation, namely the Ensemble Kalman Filtering approach (EnKF), to calibrate the coefficients of the SA model for separated flows. A holistic calibration strategy is implemented via a parameterization of the production, diffusion, and destruction terms. This calibration relies on the assimilation of experimental data collected velocity profiles, skin friction, and pressure coefficients for separated flows. Despite using of observational data from a single flow condition around a backward-facing step (BFS), the recalibrated SA model demonstrates generalization to other separated flows, including cases such as the 2D-bump and modified BFS. Significant improvement is observed in the quantities of interest, i.e., skin friction coefficient ($C_f$) and pressure coefficient ($C_p$) for each flow tested. Finally, it is also demonstrated that the newly proposed model recovers SA proficiency for external, unseparated flows, such as flow around a NACA-0012 airfoil without any danger of extrapolation, and that the individually calibrated terms in the SA model are targeted towards specific flow-physics wherein the calibrated production term improves the re-circulation zone while destruction improves the recovery zone.
High-order structures have been recognised as suitable models for systems going beyond the binary relationships for which graph models are appropriate. Despite their importance and surge in research on these structures, their random cases have been only recently become subjects of interest. One of these high-order structures is the oriented hypergraph, which relates couples of subsets of an arbitrary number of vertices. Here we develop the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi model for oriented hypergraphs, which corresponds to the random realisation of oriented hyperedges of the complete oriented hypergraph. A particular feature of random oriented hypergraphs is that the ratio between their expected number of oriented hyperedges and their expected degree or size is 3/2 for large number of vertices. We highlight the suitability of oriented hypergraphs for modelling large collections of chemical reactions and the importance of random oriented hypergraphs to analyse the unfolding of chemistry.
Modern high-throughput sequencing assays efficiently capture not only gene expression and different levels of gene regulation but also a multitude of genome variants. Focused analysis of alternative alleles of variable sites at homologous chromosomes of the human genome reveals allele-specific gene expression and allele-specific gene regulation by assessing allelic imbalance of read counts at individual sites. Here we formally describe an advanced statistical framework for detecting the allelic imbalance in allelic read counts at single-nucleotide variants detected in diverse omics studies (ChIP-Seq, ATAC-Seq, DNase-Seq, CAGE-Seq, and others). MIXALIME accounts for copy-number variants and aneuploidy, reference read mapping bias, and provides several scoring models to balance between sensitivity and specificity when scoring data with varying levels of experimental noise-caused overdispersion.
We propose a novel estimation approach for a general class of semi-parametric time series models where the conditional expectation is modeled through a parametric function. The proposed class of estimators is based on a Gaussian quasi-likelihood function and it relies on the specification of a parametric pseudo-variance that can contain parametric restrictions with respect to the conditional expectation. The specification of the pseudo-variance and the parametric restrictions follow naturally in observation-driven models with bounds in the support of the observable process, such as count processes and double-bounded time series. We derive the asymptotic properties of the estimators and a validity test for the parameter restrictions. We show that the results remain valid irrespective of the correct specification of the pseudo-variance. The key advantage of the restricted estimators is that they can achieve higher efficiency compared to alternative quasi-likelihood methods that are available in the literature. Furthermore, the testing approach can be used to build specification tests for parametric time series models. We illustrate the practical use of the methodology in a simulation study and two empirical applications featuring integer-valued autoregressive processes, where assumptions on the dispersion of the thinning operator are formally tested, and autoregressions for double-bounded data with application to a realized correlation time series.
Muscle forces and joint kinematics estimated with musculoskeletal (MSK) modeling techniques offer useful metrics describing movement quality. Model-based computational MSK models can interpret the dynamic interaction between the neural drive to muscles, muscle dynamics, body and joint kinematics, and kinetics. Still, such a set of solutions suffers from high computational time and muscle recruitment problems, especially in complex modeling. In recent years, data-driven methods have emerged as a promising alternative due to the benefits of flexibility and adaptability. However, a large amount of labeled training data is not easy to be acquired. This paper proposes a physics-informed deep learning method based on MSK modeling to predict joint motion and muscle forces. The MSK model is embedded into the neural network as an ordinary differential equation (ODE) loss function with physiological parameters of muscle activation dynamics and muscle contraction dynamics to be identified. These parameters are automatically estimated during the training process which guides the prediction of muscle forces combined with the MSK forward dynamics model. Experimental validations on two groups of data, including one benchmark dataset and one self-collected dataset from six healthy subjects, are performed. The results demonstrate that the proposed deep learning method can effectively identify subject-specific MSK physiological parameters and the trained physics-informed forward-dynamics surrogate yields accurate motion and muscle forces predictions.
The 3D reconstruction of simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is an important topic in the field for transport systems such as drones, service robots and mobile AR/VR devices. Compared to a point cloud representation, the 3D reconstruction based on meshes and voxels is particularly useful for high-level functions, like obstacle avoidance or interaction with the physical environment. This article reviews the implementation of a visual-based 3D scene reconstruction pipeline on resource-constrained hardware platforms. Real-time performances, memory management and low power consumption are critical for embedded systems. A conventional SLAM pipeline from sensors to 3D reconstruction is described, including the potential use of deep learning. The implementation of advanced functions with limited resources is detailed. Recent systems propose the embedded implementation of 3D reconstruction methods with different granularities. The trade-off between required accuracy and resource consumption for real-time localization and reconstruction is one of the open research questions identified and discussed in this paper.
With the increasing availability of large scale datasets, computational power and tools like automatic differentiation and expressive neural network architectures, sequential data are now often treated in a data-driven way, with a dynamical model trained from the observation data. While neural networks are often seen as uninterpretable black-box architectures, they can still benefit from physical priors on the data and from mathematical knowledge. In this paper, we use a neural network architecture which leverages the long-known Koopman operator theory to embed dynamical systems in latent spaces where their dynamics can be described linearly, enabling a number of appealing features. We introduce methods that enable to train such a model for long-term continuous reconstruction, even in difficult contexts where the data comes in irregularly-sampled time series. The potential for self-supervised learning is also demonstrated, as we show the promising use of trained dynamical models as priors for variational data assimilation techniques, with applications to e.g. time series interpolation and forecasting.
This work proposes an adjacent-category autoregressive model for time series of ordinal variables. We apply this model to dendrochronological records to study the effect of climate on the intensity of spruce budworm defoliation during outbreaks in two sites in eastern Canada. The model's parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. We show that this estimator is consistent and asymptotically Gaussian distributed. We also propose a Portemanteau test for goodness-of-fit. Our study shows that the seasonal ranges of maximum daily temperatures in the spring and summer have a significant quadratic effect on defoliation. The study reveals that for both regions, a greater range of summer daily maximum temperatures is associated with lower levels of defoliation up to a threshold estimated at 22.7C (CI of 0-39.7C at 95%) in T\'emiscamingue and 21.8C (CI of 0-54.2C at 95%) for Matawinie. For Matawinie, a greater range in spring daily maximum temperatures increased defoliation, up to a threshold of 32.5C (CI of 0-80.0C). We also present a statistical test to compare the autoregressive parameter values between different fits of the model, which allows us to detect changes in the defoliation dynamics between the study sites in terms of their respective autoregression structures.
For a singular integral equation on an interval of the real line, we study the behavior of the error of a delta-delta discretization. We show that the convergence is non-uniform, between order $O(h^{2})$ in the interior of the interval and a boundary layer where the consistency error does not tend to zero.
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