This paper is written for a Festschrift in honour of Professor Marc Hallin and it proposes some developments on quantile regression. We connect our investigation to Marc's scientific production and we present some theoretical and methodological advances for quantiles estimation in non standard settings. We split our contributions in two parts. The first part is about conditional quantiles estimation for nonstationary time series. The second part is about conditional quantiles estimation for the analysis of multivariate independent data in the presence of possibly large dimensional covariates. Monte Carlo studies illustrate numerically the performance of our methods and compare them to some extant techniques.
In this paper we consider PIDEs with gradient-independent Lipschitz continuous nonlinearities and prove that deep neural networks with ReLU activation function can approximate solutions of such semilinear PIDEs without curse of dimensionality in the sense that the required number of parameters in the deep neural networks increases at most polynomially in both the dimension $ d $ of the corresponding PIDE and the reciprocal of the prescribed accuracy $\epsilon $.
In this paper we consider the numerical approximation of infinite horizon problems via the dynamic programming approach. The value function of the problem solves a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation that is approximated by a fully discrete method. It is known that the numerical problem is difficult to handle by the so called curse of dimensionality. To mitigate this issue we apply a reduction of the order by means of a new proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method based on time derivatives. We carry out the error analysis of the method using recently proved optimal bounds for the fully discrete approximations. Moreover, the use of snapshots based on time derivatives allow us to bound some terms of the error that could not be bounded in a standard POD approach. Some numerical experiments show the good performance of the method in practice.
We introduce a nonlinear stochastic model reduction technique for high-dimensional stochastic dynamical systems that have a low-dimensional invariant effective manifold with slow dynamics, and high-dimensional, large fast modes. Given only access to a black box simulator from which short bursts of simulation can be obtained, we design an algorithm that outputs an estimate of the invariant manifold, a process of the effective stochastic dynamics on it, which has averaged out the fast modes, and a simulator thereof. This simulator is efficient in that it exploits of the low dimension of the invariant manifold, and takes time steps of size dependent on the regularity of the effective process, and therefore typically much larger than that of the original simulator, which had to resolve the fast modes. The algorithm and the estimation can be performed on-the-fly, leading to efficient exploration of the effective state space, without losing consistency with the underlying dynamics. This construction enables fast and efficient simulation of paths of the effective dynamics, together with estimation of crucial features and observables of such dynamics, including the stationary distribution, identification of metastable states, and residence times and transition rates between them.
The plausibility of the ``parallel trends assumption'' in Difference-in-Differences estimation is usually assessed by a test of the null hypothesis that the difference between the average outcomes of both groups is constant over time before the treatment. However, failure to reject the null hypothesis does not imply the absence of differences in time trends between both groups. We provide equivalence tests that allow researchers to find evidence in favor of the parallel trends assumption and thus increase the credibility of their treatment effect estimates. While we motivate our tests in the standard two-way fixed effects model, we discuss simple extensions to settings in which treatment adoption is staggered over time.
Neural networks (NNs) are primarily developed within the frequentist statistical framework. Nevertheless, frequentist NNs lack the capability to provide uncertainties in the predictions, and hence their robustness can not be adequately assessed. Conversely, the Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) naturally offer predictive uncertainty by applying Bayes' theorem. However, their computational requirements pose significant challenges. Moreover, both frequentist NNs and BNNs suffer from overfitting issues when dealing with noisy and sparse data, which render their predictions unwieldy away from the available data space. To address both these problems simultaneously, we leverage insights from a hierarchical setting in which the parameter priors are conditional on hyperparameters to construct a BNN by applying a semi-analytical framework known as nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL). We call our network sparse Bayesian neural network (SBNN) which aims to address the practical and computational issues associated with BNNs. Simultaneously, imposing a sparsity-inducing prior encourages the automatic pruning of redundant parameters based on the automatic relevance determination (ARD) concept. This process involves removing redundant parameters by optimally selecting the precision of the parameters prior probability density functions (pdfs), resulting in a tractable treatment for overfitting. To demonstrate the benefits of the SBNN algorithm, the study presents an illustrative regression problem and compares the results of a BNN using standard Bayesian inference, hierarchical Bayesian inference, and a BNN equipped with the proposed algorithm. Subsequently, we demonstrate the importance of considering the full parameter posterior by comparing the results with those obtained using the Laplace approximation with and without NSBL.
This paper studies the design of cluster experiments to estimate the global treatment effect in the presence of spillovers on a single network. We provide an econometric framework to choose the clustering that minimizes the worst-case mean-squared error of the estimated global treatment effect. We show that the optimal clustering can be approximated as the solution of a novel penalized min-cut optimization problem computed via off-the-shelf semi-definite programming algorithms. Our analysis also characterizes easy-to-check conditions to choose between a cluster or individual-level randomization. We illustrate the method's properties using unique network data from the universe of Facebook's users and existing network data from a field experiment.
This paper presents a novel approach to solving the Flying Sidekick Travelling Salesman Problem (FSTSP) using a state-of-the-art self-adaptive genetic algorithm. The Flying Sidekick Travelling Salesman Problem is a combinatorial optimisation problem that extends the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) by introducing the use of drones. In FSTSP, the objective is to minimise the total time to visit all locations while strategically deploying a drone to serve hard-to-reach customer locations. Also, to the best of my knowledge, this is the first time a self-adaptive genetic algorithm (GA) has been used to solve the FSTSP problem. Experimental results on smaller-sized problem instances demonstrate that this algorithm can find a higher quantity of optimal solutions and a lower percentage gap to the optimal solution compared to rival algorithms. Moreover, on larger-sized problem instances, this algorithm outperforms all rival algorithms on each problem size while maintaining a reasonably low computation time.
In this work, we introduce Regularity Structures B-series which are used for describing solutions of singular stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). We define composition and substitutions of these B-series and as in the context of B-series for ordinary differential equations, these operations can rewritten via products and Hopf algebras which have been used for building up renormalised models. These models provide a suitable topology for solving singular SPDEs. This new construction sheds a new light on these products and open interesting perspectives for the study of singular SPDEs in connection with B-series.
The coordination of autonomous vehicles is an open field that is addressed by different researches comprising many different techniques. In this paper we focus on decentralized approaches able to provide adaptability to different infrastructural and traffic conditions. We formalize an Emergent Behavior Approach that, as per our knowledge, has never been performed for this purpose, and a Decentralized Auction approach. We compare them against existing centralized negotiation approaches based on auctions and we determine under which conditions each approach is preferable to the others.
In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used for the hidden nodes that process the underlying asset price. In addition, financial conditions, such as the absence of arbitrage, the boundaries and the asymptotic slope, are embedded into the loss function. This is one of the very first studies which discuss a methodological framework that incorporates prior financial domain knowledge into neural network architecture design and model training. The proposed model outperforms the benchmarked models with the option data on the S&P 500 index over 20 years. More importantly, the domain knowledge is satisfied empirically, showing the model is consistent with the existing financial theories and conditions related to implied volatility surface.